XRP is one of the crypto assets with an extensive circulating supply, which continues to draw criticism from skeptics.

In response, XRP proponents often advocate for measures that could reduce the available supply of XRP tokens, hoping this could positively influence its price.

XRP Supply

XRP is currently trading at $3.01, with a circulating supply of 59.14 billion tokens, giving it a market cap of approximately $179.28 billion. Meanwhile, it has a total supply of 99.98 billion tokens, with a fully diluted valuation of $301.47 billion.

Originally, XRP had a maximum supply of 100 billion, but over 14.18 million tokens have been burned through transaction fees on the XRP Ledger. XRP supporters often cite this mechanism to argue that XRP follows a deflationary model.

This argument is frequently used to counter concerns around Ripple’s escrow unlocks, which some critics believe introduce selling pressure by releasing “new” tokens into circulation. However, proponents argue that these tokens were already in circulation before being locked, so they don’t represent new supply.

Reducing XRP Supply

Meanwhile, the XRP community has frequently speculated about potential initiatives that could reduce the available supply. These discussions were widespread when XRP was significantly underperforming at around $0.50.

Now that the token is trading above $3, such calls have vastly diminished. However, the broader argument of a potential supply shock remains a topic of discussion.

One of the most widely discussed proposals is for Ripple to burn the 35.60 billion XRP it currently holds in escrow (worth over $106 billion). Advocates of this strategy believe it could help drive XRP’s price higher.

However, Ripple CTO David Schwartz has argued that burning the company’s escrowed tokens would be ineffective in increasing XRP’s price. Moreover, Ripple’s competitor Stellar took a similar approach by burning half of its supply, but this had little significant impact on the price of XLM.

XRP Price If Supply Drops to 40B

So, in a hypothetical scenario where Ripple and other major holders burn large portions of their XRP holdings, reducing the circulating supply to just 40 billion tokens, what could the price be?

While there’s no definitive answer, if the market cap remains at $179 billion, the price of XRP could theoretically rise to $4.48.

Can This Happen?

A price of $4.48 would represent a significant improvement over XRP’s current value of $3. It would also mark a new all-time high for the coin.

However, this scenario is purely hypothetical. When tokens are burned, their valuations don’t remain static—market cap typically adjusts. XRP’s price would only rise if the reduced supply is met with increased demand.

Secondly, the path to reducing XRP’s circulating supply to 40 billion is improbable. The amount of XRP burned through transactions is minimal and largely ineffective. Despite 13 years of burns, the total supply still stands at 99.98 billion.

Moreover, Ripple and other major XRP holders are unlikely to burn their tokens. Doing so would mean sacrificing substantial financial assets for a gamble that may not work out. For context, removing 60 billion XRP from the supply would mean wiping out $180 billion in value at today’s prices.

While XRP struggles around the $3 mark, widely followed commentator Zach Rector has identified a new regulatory factor that could boost its price for a while.

This comes amid recent developments concerning XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

For context, the U.S. SEC on Monday postponed its ruling on several proposed XRP ETFs, including the Grayscale XRP Trust, CoinShares XRP ETF, and the 21Shares Core XRP ETF. With this extension, the regulator has pushed the final decision deadline to late October 2025.

How It Could Create Upward Pressure on XRP Price

In response to the SEC’s move, Rector commented that the delay could create steady upward pressure on XRP’s price in the coming weeks. He noted that anticipation for ETF approvals is likely to drive investor interest until the official launch date in October.

This sentiment reflects hopes among investors looking to position themselves in XRP ahead of the SEC’s potential approval. Specifically, Rector believes the market may follow a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern.

He expects short-term buying pressure for XRP with the view that buying will begin now in anticipation of an eventual sell-off around the approval date in October.

Upon the final decision, he projects a price pullback. However, he noted that consistent inflows into these ETFs could reverse the selling pressure shortly afterward.

Interestingly, a similar scenario played out with Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024. Expectations were sky-high in late 2023, with widespread belief—despite the SEC’s then-skeptical stance on crypto—that approval would come by the first week of January 2024. Industry commentators, including those from Bloomberg, were almost certain of it.

And indeed, it happened. However, on the day of approval, Bitcoin’s price dipped as the news merely met trader expectations. In the following weeks, record inflows into Bitcoin investment products propelled the price to a new all-time high, just three months later, and even before its halving.

Real Price Fireworks Could Follow for XRP

Rector is hoping for a similar scenario with XRP. He believes potential inflows into XRP ETFs could drive the asset into double-digit territory and beyond.

Industry leaders like Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg have projected that XRP could attract $5 billion in inflows within the first month of ETF trading. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts believe XRP ETFs could draw $8 billion in their first year.

Market analysts have used various multipliers to estimate the impact of these inflows on XRP’s price. Some forecasts have suggested the price could reach as high as $26.

Another Big News Coming in October 

Alongside the ETF decisions, Ripple is also awaiting a ruling from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency concerning its filing for a national banking charter. Ripple submitted the application in July 2025, and under the OCC’s standard review process, a decision could also arrive in late October.

This means both Ripple and XRP could be facing two landmark regulatory events in the same month.

Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has pointed to a narrow range that could decide the next XRP price direction.

According to Egrag’s latest analysis, whether XRP extends its decline or starts to recover will depend on whether it holds support or reclaims higher levels.

In a post on X, Egrag defined the current trading corridor for XRP as a macro range between $2.65 and $3.65. The lower boundary, $2.65, represents the potential completion of a five-wave corrective structure. The upper boundary, $3.65, serves as the long-term bullish target if buyers regain control.

As of this press, XRP is trading at $3.02, a 1.5% rise in the past day, reducing its weekly loss to 3.9%. The past month has been particularly low for XRP, recording an 11.7% loss in the period.

XRP’s Key Support at $2.90

Notably, the immediate focus remains on the $2.90 support level. Egrag noted that if XRP posts a full-body close below this mark on the 4-hour timeframe, the corrective pattern will likely extend to $2.65. This level has not been tested since August 3, when XRP dropped to $2.74.

Meanwhile, volume readings show a spike above the moving average, indicating strong participation during the recent sell-off.

XRP’s Resistance Levels to Reclaim

Meanwhile, if buyers hold $2.90 and push higher, several checkpoints stand in the way of recovery. The first milestone is the $3 psychological mark. With XRP now trading above this level, Egrag noted that other milestones are $3.13 and $3.20. A close above $3.20 would strengthen the case for continued momentum and reduce the risk of further downside.

From there, attention shifts to $3.45, a level linked to the early August swing high. Clearing this point would set the stage for a possible run toward $3.65, the upper limit of the current macro range. 

Egrag suggests that breaking above $3.65 could mark the beginning of a fresh all-time high. This comes barely a week after he predicted a 777% surge to $28, citing historical patterns.

On the downside, should XRP lose $2.65, the chart points to $2.34 as the next area of support. This level represents a deeper correction and would confirm that the bearish structure has extended beyond its initial target.

Other Analysts Predict Next XRP Trades 

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Crypto Tony noted that XRP’s price outlook remains constructive as long XRP holds its weekly support near the $3 level. He urged traders to be patient, noting that further gains are likely if the support line established in July continues to hold. 

Meanwhile, Crypto King believes XRP could be getting ready for a more upward rally, with chart projections pointing toward the $4.5–$5.0 range, similar to crypto analyst Albie’s prediction for Q2, 2026.

Supporting this outlook, Crypto King highlighted a long-term wedge formation that favors further upside and reminded followers of his $80,000 long entry at $0.80 ten months ago. That position is now up above 270%, and with the chart signaling more strength ahead, the forecast suggests XRP may not be done “printing upwards” just yet.