The Crypto Basic

XRP is at risk of a downside move, as falling open interest and a possible bear flag pattern point to $1.04 as the next key support level.

XRP continues to show signs of weakening momentum, with both on-chain data and technical indicators pointing to intense selling pressure.

A CryptoQuant analysis reveals declining participation in the derivatives market. At the same time, chart analysis suggests a bearish continuation pattern could send the token toward lower support levels.

XRP Open Interest Drops Lower

CryptoQuant verified author PelinayPA highlighted that XRP’s open interest on Binance has fallen to $350.6 million, one of its lowest readings in recent months. The decline suggests traders are increasingly closing leveraged positions and preferring to stay on the sidelines as interest in derivative exposure to the asset drops.

The open interest across all exchanges has also followed a similar trajectory. At the time of writing, the metric stood at $776 million, reaching lows last seen in February.

Meanwhile, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio remains elevated at 162.86. High NVT readings generally indicate that network activity has not recovered enough to impact XRP’s valuation. This suggests that activities on the XRP Ledger remain minimal and continue to affect the asset’s recovery negatively.

Taken together, the analyst noted that these indicators reflect a market where risk appetite has cooled considerably, leaving sellers with the upper hand. Unless the current condition changes, the XRP price remains vulnerable and could drop further.

Bear Flag Pattern Puts $1.04 in Focus

Meanwhile, a 1-hour chart analysis from Ali Martinez adds to the cautious outlook. In a parallel analysis, he identified a bearish formation that could potentially push XRP lower.

An accompanying chart shows that after a sharp decline, XRP has been consolidating inside what appears to be a bear flag. Its price is compressing between the structure’s upper resistance and the ascending support trendline below.

Notably, this type of pattern often represents a pause after an extended downtrend rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery. Prices make higher lows but are unable to break above a horizontal resistance level. Eventually, a breakdown occurs, starting the next leg down.

Martinez suggested that if this is a flag pattern, then XRP is at risk of further downsides. The flag breaking down could start a measured move toward $1.04, a 5% drop from the current market price of $1.10.

XRP has entered one of the most important stages on its weekly chart, placing it at an inflection point that could determine its next major move. 

XRP is currently trading at around $1.1063 after reaching a weekly high of $1.1638 before pulling back. Currently, the crypto asset is down 4.32% in the week, on track to end the session in negative territory.

Amid the downward price action, several indicators have converged to create a setup that could lead to a major move. As a result, the question is no longer whether XRP will make a major move from here, but whether it will rally higher or fall toward the $0.70 area.

Fibonacci Levels Show Where XRP Could Move Next

Notably, a Fibonacci retracement grid drawn from XRP’s cycle low of $0.3814 to its cycle high of $3.6662 covers the entire rally that took place between late 2024 and early 2025. Since reaching the peak, XRP has moved lower, passing through several key Fibonacci levels.

At the current price of $1.1063, XRP trades just above the 18.75% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.9980. The next major support lies at the 12.50% retracement level of $0.7925, which stands as the final important support before the price could return to the base of the previous bull run.

Several resistance levels also contributed to this decline. Specifically, the 33% Fibonacci level at $1.4626 acted as an important support before XRP lost it. Once the price fell below that level, it never regained it. 

Higher up, the 50% retracement level at $2.0256 stopped the recovery attempt in January 2026. The 61.80% golden pocket at $2.4136 and the 66% retracement level at $2.5437 also rejected price during the extended topping phase near the July 2025 highs. 

Symmetrical Triangle Puts XRP at a Decision Point

Meanwhile, data from the weekly chart shows a symmetrical triangle that now defines XRP’s overall structure. 

Notably, XRP currently witnesses a downward-sloping trendline that starts from the $3.6662 peak and connects several lower highs. At the same time, the chart features an upward-sloping trendline that has acted as support. While the upper trendline formed in July 2025, the lower line started forming in 2024.

These two trendlines have squeezed XRP into the triangle’s apex, where price now sits. Since symmetrical triangles do not favor either buyers or sellers, the market now waits for the next breakout to reveal the direction.

A breakout above the upper trendline could push XRP toward $1.4626, followed by $2.0256, and later the $2.40 to $3.00 range. 

However, if the price breaks below the lower trendline, XRP would lose its nearby technical support and could fall toward the $0.7925 Fibonacci level, which aligns with a possible move to around $0.70.

Volume Suggests Selling Pressure Is Fading

Importantly, XRP’s trading volume reveals how market sentiment has changed amid the ongoing price action. When XRP recovered from its early 2025 low, strong buying activity drove a sharp V-shaped rebound, showing that buyers had returned with confidence.

However, after the July 2025 peak, the market moved lower on heavy selling volume. This confirmed that sellers remained firmly in control instead of allowing prices to drift lower on weak trading activity.

As the downtrend continued, trading volume gradually became lighter even though XRP kept falling. This pattern suggests that selling pressure has started to weaken. 

However, weaker selling alone does not confirm a reversal. Buyers still need to return with enough strength to establish a lasting recovery. Current weekly volume now resembles the quiet trading conditions seen in June 2025, a period that came just before a major price move.