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Why Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying May No Longer Be Driving Prices Higher

Mark Brennan
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Why Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying May No Longer Be Driving Prices Higher

Recent analysis from CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has reignited debate around whether Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) should continue aggressively accumulating Bitcoin at current levels.

While the company remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, the latest data suggests that persistent buying may no longer be acting as a meaningful price catalyst and could instead be functioning as a liquidity sink in a market struggling to establish a new directional trend.

A Market Absorbing Capital Without Advancing

One of the most striking charts compares Bitcoin’s Market Cap growth versus Realized Cap growth. Realized Cap, which measures the aggregate value of coins based on their last on-chain transaction price, has increased by approximately $467 billion over the past two years. Historically, such an influx of capital would be expected to drive substantial price appreciation.

Bitcoin's Market Cap growth versus Realized Cap growth.
Image Source: https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/2069646523668033833

Instead, Bitcoin has largely traded sideways within a broad range.

The chart shows that the difference between market cap growth and realized cap growth has recently turned negative, represented by the red zones indicating elevated selling pressure. This suggests that new capital entering the market is being met by an equally strong wave of distribution. Rather than driving prices higher, incoming demand is simply facilitating ownership transfer from existing holders to new buyers.

In practical terms, the market is absorbing enormous amounts of capital without producing sustained upside momentum.

Strategy’s Financial Position Is Tightening

The second chart highlights a growing concern regarding Strategy’s balance sheet.

At the beginning of 2026, the company’s cash reserve peaked at approximately $2.2 billion. Following convertible note repurchases and continued Bitcoin acquisitions, cash reserves declined sharply by around 38%, falling to roughly $870 million before recovering modestly to approximately $1.4 billion.

Strategy's balance sheet
Strategy’s balance sheet

More concerning is the deterioration in dividend coverage.

Dividend coverage, measured in months, has collapsed from more than 80 months of coverage to just 14 months, one of the lowest levels on record. While the company still maintains substantial Bitcoin holdings, its liquid cash position has become increasingly constrained relative to its obligations.

The chart clearly illustrates a diverging trend:

  • Cash reserves have declined materially.
  • Dividend obligations have increased.
  • Financial flexibility has weakened.

This does not imply immediate financial distress, but it does suggest that continued aggressive Bitcoin purchases come at a growing opportunity cost.

Why Continuous Buying May Be Counterproductive

According to CryptoQuant’s thesis, Bitcoin cycles traditionally reset through a familiar sequence:

  1. Capitulation
  2. Weak-hand liquidation
  3. Price collapse
  4. Whale accumulation
  5. New bull market

This cycle has been unusual.

Instead of experiencing a deep cleansing drawdown, Bitcoin has spent nearly two years moving sideways. The market has neither generated enough strength to launch a decisive bull market nor enough weakness to force widespread capitulation.

As a result:

  • Weak hands remain active.
  • Profit-taking opportunities continue to emerge.
  • Strong hands have not accumulated at historically attractive valuations.

Under these conditions, Strategy’s continued purchases may simply provide exit liquidity for existing holders rather than creating sustainable upward momentum.

The market is effectively stuck in a state of equilibrium.

A More Disciplined Framework

The argument is not that Strategy should abandon Bitcoin. Rather, it should consider adopting a more systematic capital allocation model.

Potential steps include:

  • Temporarily pausing Bitcoin purchases.
  • Rebuilding cash reserves.
  • Restoring dividend coverage.
  • Establishing quantitative accumulation thresholds based on market conditions.
  • Developing a future profit-taking framework during periods of extreme market exuberance.

Such an approach would transform Bitcoin acquisitions from a continuous buying program into a dynamic capital management strategy.

Conclusion

Bitcoin remains a structurally scarce asset with powerful long-term fundamentals. However, scarcity alone does not eliminate the importance of timing and balance sheet management.

The current on-chain data suggests that the market is experiencing elevated selling pressure despite significant capital inflows. Meanwhile, Strategy’s shrinking cash reserves and rapidly declining dividend coverage indicate that financial flexibility is becoming increasingly valuable.

If the market truly requires a deeper reset before the next major expansion phase, preserving liquidity today may ultimately provide Strategy with far greater purchasing power when the next genuine accumulation opportunity emerges. In that scenario, patience—not relentless buying—could become the company’s most valuable asset.

Cardano Now Ranks as the 4th Most Decentralized Network

Elendu Benedict
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Cardano Now Ranks as the 4th Most Decentralized Network

The Cardano network ranks as one of the most decentralized networks in the crypto space, as the chances of compromise become nearly impossible.

Decentralization in this context refers to the even distribution of control and authority among network participants.

A well-decentralized network has broader participation in decision-making and is censorship resistant. Currently, Cardano ranks among the top four in crypto networks with these features.

Cardano Nakamoto Coefficient at 23

This ranking was determined by the Nakamoto coefficient. Named after Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto, the metric measures how decentralized a network is using multiple factors. One is the minimum number of independent entities that have enough control to disrupt consensus.

Disrupting consensus for a Proof of Stake mechanism requires 33% of the total stake or voting power. For Proof of Work, a miner would need 50% of the total hash power to achieve censorship.

The higher a network’s Nakamoto coefficient, the more decentralized it is.  As of June 23, Cardano has a score of 23, the fourth-highest among all blockchains. This means that it would take the agreement of 23 independent network contributors to compromise the network. Analysts view this as a nearly impossible scenario in practice.

Notably, only three networks are more decentralized than Cardano using this metric. Polkadot ranks first with a Nakamoto coefficient of 178, the Ton Network ranks second at 72, while Avalanche ranks third at 26.

Cardano Ranks as the 4th Most Decentralized Network
Cardano Ranks as the 4th Most Decentralized Network

The debut of the fully decentralized governance system on Cardano through the Plomin hard fork played a major part in its ranking. The transition moved control of the network to ADA holders, allowing them to decide what happens on the network. Notably, this governance system has had its peaks and downsides for the ecosystem.

Cardano Has Its Cheapest Transaction Fees in Months

Furthermore, fees on Cardano have dropped to their lowest in months. Data shows that the current average ADA transaction fee stands at $0.056 as of June 22.

Notably, this has been one of the lowest since March, when the average fees stood around $0.082. Between April and May, Cardano transaction fees crossed $0.09 on multiple occasions but hovered mostly around $0.07-$0.08.

Cardano Average Transaction Fee
Cardano Average Transaction Fee

However, the dollar value paid to transact on the network started to fall in June. On Saturday, it dropped to a low of $0.051, its lowest since March. The continued decline makes using Cardano cheaper, a scenario that encourages adoption.

Nonetheless, a price decline could also have impacted the fees. The average transaction fee on Cardano is 0.3541 ADA. In March, when the asset traded at $0.28, this would translate to a dollar fee of around $0.099. At the current price of $0.15, this drops to around $0.053.

XRP ETFs Stand Alone as the Only Crypto Funds to Start the New Week with Inflows

Mark Brennan
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XRP ETFs Stand Alone as the Only Crypto Funds to Start the New Week with Inflows

XRP ETFs emerged as the only spot crypto funds in the United States to begin the new week with inflows, as Bitcoin and Ethereum record massive outflows.

Specifically, the XRP ETF products pulled in over $5 million worth of capital flows on Monday. While this represents a mild inflow, it places the funds in the most bullish position, as other crypto ETFs either saw outflows or zero flows.

XRP ETFs Bullish Trend

This is according to data sourced by Sosovalue, a leading crypto market analytics platform. Notably, on Monday, June 22, XRP ETFs recorded exactly 4.68 million XRP ($5.31 million) in capital inflows, representing their largest intraday record since June 9. 

XRP ETFs Dashboard Sosovalue
XRP ETFs Dashboard | Sosovalue

The latest performance begins the new week on a bullish note for these funds and builds on what appears to be a consistently strong showing since the start of the month. After enduring a $5.34 million outflow on June 3, these ETFs have maintained a positive streak throughout July, now going 12 days strong without any outflow.

While the inflow figures have been rather mild, ranging from $1.19 million to $7.4 million, XRP’s ability to sustain a positive streak on its ETF products during the ongoing downtrend confirms the funds’ resilience, especially considering other crypto ETFs have seen massive losses within the same period.

How Other Crypto ETFs Performed

Interestingly, no other crypto ETF product in the United States recorded capital inflows on June 22. 

Specifically, Bitcoin ETFs posted $68.18 million worth of outflows that day, while Ethereum ETFs saw $66.04 million in net outflows. Every other crypto ETF, including Solana ETFs, Dogecoin ETFs, Hyperliquid ETFs, BNB ETFs, and Chainlink ETFs, witnessed zero flows.

Besides the latest performance, XRP ETFs have recently stood out during multiple periods of weak performance across crypto ETF products. For instance, on May 29, XRP ETFs welcomed the largest capital flow in the crypto market, while Bitcoin and Ethereum funds posted outflows.

Bitwise XRP ETF Stands Out as Sole Contributor

Notably, the latest performance was driven solely by the Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP), which saw $5.31 million on June 22, bringing its cumulative net inflow since inception to $481.57 million, with net assets worth $305.4 million. With this, the Bitwise product maintains its position as the largest XRP ETF, having surpassed Canary’s XRPC.

The Bitwise ETF was also the sole contributor to the $2.55 million inflow recorded by the XRP ETF market on June 18, while other products saw zero flows. Following the latest performance, cumulative total net inflows across all products now stand at $1.45 billion.

Early Shiba Inu Whale Dumps Fresh 600 Billion SHIB, Taking Monthly Sales to 3.8 Trillion Coins

Elendu Benedict
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Early Shiba Inu Whale Dumps Fresh 600 Billion SHIB, Taking Monthly Sales to 3.8 Trillion Coins

Shiba Inu is facing renewed selling pressure after one of the token’s earliest and largest holders resumed his distribution campaign.

Arkham has indexed a series of large transfers linked to a wallet widely known for accumulating SHIB during the project’s earliest days. The wallet possesses the tag “$13,752 bought 103 trillion SHIB,” reflecting his early acquisition of the prominent meme coin.

On Monday, the whale moved approximately 600 billion SHIB, worth roughly $2.83 million at the time, to the ForwarderV4 wallet, an address associated with distribution activity.

Whale Sells 600B SHIB/Arkham
Whale Sells 600B SHIB/Arkham

Notably, the transaction came at a time when Shiba Inu (SHIB) is struggling to regain momentum. The token is down over 18% this month, dropping to multi-year lows around $0.00000453.

Early Shiba Inu Whale Starts Unloading Stash

The wallet in question is one of the most closely watched addresses in the SHIB ecosystem due to the scale of its holdings. According to on-chain data, the owner accumulated about 103 trillion SHIB (17.4% of the total market cap) in August 2020, when the project was still relatively new.

At the peak of the 2021 market rally when SHIB hit $0.0000885, the stash had a value of more than $9.1 billion. Despite the outsized gains, the holder largely remained inactive for years, leaving the tokens untouched while the broader market experienced multiple cycles.

That pattern appears to have changed. Over the last month, the wallet has sent roughly 3.8 trillion SHIB to addresses linked to distribution activity. This brings the estimated liquidation to over $20 million realized during this period.

A Large Supply Overhang Remains

Before this latest wave, the last time the wallet sold was 6 months ago. The incessant selloffs have raised concern about the intentions of the whale. Notably, such huge sales after years of holding suggest a gradual loss of confidence in the position.

While it has sold a considerable amount of SHIB, the whale’s remaining holdings still dwarf recent sales. Arkham shows that the address still controls 96.2 trillion SHIB, valued at approximately $433 million at current prices.

Early Shiba Inu Whale Holdings/Coinglass
Early Shiba Inu Whale Holdings/Coinglass

That remaining balance represents a significant source of potential supply hanging over the market. If the whale continues current selling activity, it could further add selling pressure to Shiba Inu’s price.

The selling activity also appears to be a broader market trend. Per CryptoQuant, the total exchange netflow remains positive, suggesting that wallets are depositing more SHIB tokens to trading platforms than they are withdrawing. Over the past 24 hours, a net of 695.4 billion tokens entered exchanges, signaling distribution as price struggles.

Shiba Inu Trending Metrics/CryptoQuant
Shiba Inu Trending Metrics/CryptoQuant

Fidelity Website Posts Bold $8 XRP Price Prediction

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Fidelity Website Posts Bold $8 XRP Price Prediction

An article published on the website of asset management giant Fidelity Investments has drawn attention for highlighting bullish price forecasts for XRP.

The piece links an $8 XRP price prediction to spot XRP ETF inflows and a more favorable regulatory environment in the United States.

The article has been widely shared within the XRP community. However, it is not Fidelity’s own research. Instead, it was part of a syndicated crypto news feed hosted on the firm’s platform.

Multiple XRP Price Targets

The report references several third-party forecasts. According to the article, Standard Chartered believes XRP could reach $8 if spot XRP ETFs attract significant investor demand and U.S. regulations become more supportive of digital assets.

The article also cites analysts on TradingView who expect XRP to rise toward $3.30 and $8.50 after breaking out of a long-term symmetrical triangle pattern.

Other long-term models mentioned in the report are even more optimistic. They project XRP could reach $12.04 in the medium term and climb to $26 by 2030 with ETF adoption.

X user Tom highlighted the article and argued that both Standard Chartered and Fidelity were pointing toward an $8 XRP target. Citing a breakout and successful retest of a nine-year consolidation pattern, he expects XRP to reach between $8 and $10 before year-end.

Image

Whale Accumulation Report

The article also highlights strong whale activity. It claimed wallets holding at least 1 million XRP accumulated 1.53 billion tokens over the past six months. Accordingly, he claimed these wallets now control roughly 74.1% of XRP’s circulating supply.

Notably, the data comes from a previous on-chain report from analytics firm Santiment. In May, The Crypto Basic reported that XRP whale wallets holding more than 10 million XRP reached an 8-year high. Their holdings totaled 45.83B XRP, about 74% of the supply, the highest since May 2018.

At the time, on-chain data showed continued accumulation with whales steadily increasing their holdings, supporting a +5.7% weekly price gain.

Fidelity Has No XRP ETF Plans

It is worth noting that Fidelity has not shown direct interest in XRP through an ETF. The company remains active in digital assets through the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC). The fund is the second-largest U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF behind iShares Bitcoin Trust and manages $11 billion in Bitcoin holdings.

Meanwhile, several firms have launched XRP ETF products, including Bitwise, Canary Capital, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and Grayscale.

In sum, while the article’s appearance on Fidelity’s website has boosted enthusiasm among XRP supporters, the forecasts and on-chain data cited in the report come from external analysts and research providers, not Fidelity’s in-house investment team.

Do Not Sell Your XRP, as It Could Hedge Against Financial Decay: Black Swan Capitalist founder

Mark Brennan
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Do Not Sell Your XRP, as It Could Hedge Against Financial Decay: Black Swan Capitalist founder

A prominent XRP community figure and crypto founder has urged investors not to sell all of their XRP holdings.

XRP is currently facing one of its most difficult periods in recent years, down 40% since the beginning of 2026. This sharp decline has triggered panic among investors across the market, leading to sustained selloffs.

Despite the downturn, XRP commentator and Black Swan Capitalist founder Versan Aljarrah believes investors should avoid selling all their holdings, arguing that XRP could protect them from the gradual decline of the traditional financial system.

Call for Investors to Keep a Core XRP Position

In an X post, Aljarrah advised investors to always keep a core XRP position instead of selling their entire holdings. According to him, XRP could act as a hedge for holders as the existing financial system continues to weaken.

His latest comments reflect a view he has held for years. Notably, Aljarrah sees XRP as more than a speculative asset meant for short-term trading. However, he considers it a long-term infrastructure asset that could have an important role in the next stage of the global financial system.

Most market commentators who share Aljarrah’s sentiments believe the world is moving through a major wealth transition led by digital assets, the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), and precious metals. 

In this environment, they see XRP as a bridge asset that can provide liquidity and support settlements, while stablecoins like RLUSD have different settlement needs.

Long-Standing XRP Thesis

Aljarrah’s recent statement follows comments he has made in the past. While speaking on why investors should own XRP in January 2025, he suggested that holding the crypto asset allows investors to become their own bank and lender. “Few will understand, but that kind of freedom is always under attack. Never let it go,” he added.

He has consistently argued that XRP should be seen as digital collateral for the future financial system. He also suggested that investors could move profits from other assets into XRP and precious metals such as gold.

In earlier discussions, Aljarrah called attention to XRP’s long-term accumulation pattern, citing higher lows, rising trading volume, and expanding utility as signs that the asset could eventually see a major breakout. 

Some of the factors he frequently mentions are regulatory clarity, wider bank adoption, and increased tokenization activity. He also believes XRP and XLM can work together within a dual public settlement framework.

Community Reactions

Most community members responding to Aljarrah’s latest post agreed with the idea of keeping a permanent core holding. Some mentioned upcoming XRP Ledger features like XLS-66 as ways investors could potentially earn returns without selling their XRP.

Others advised holders to spread their assets across different storage solutions instead of keeping everything in one place. Some of the suggestions included using trusts and institutional custodians. However, critics questioned XRP’s long-term price prospects.

Cardano Founder Dismisses Short-Term Panic, Forecasts 1B Crypto Users and Rapid RWA Tokenization by 2030

Lele Jima
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Cardano Founder Dismisses Short-Term Panic, Forecasts 1B Crypto Users and Rapid RWA Tokenization by 2030

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has reiterated his confidence in the long-term future of cryptocurrency, projecting that the industry will eventually grow into a $10 trillion market.

In a viral clip on X, Hoskinson brushed aside concerns over the ongoing crypto market downturn, arguing that the sector is positioning itself for a much larger rally in the years ahead.

 

According to him, cryptocurrency represents both an “opt out” and an “exit” from traditional financial systems. He suggested that crypto provides solutions to many of the shortcomings associated with conventional finance.

Although Hoskinson acknowledged that the crypto market experiences periodic booms and corrections, he emphasized that the industry’s overall trajectory remains firmly upward. 

Crypto Adoption Could Double by 2030

Supporting this bullish outlook, Hoskinson highlighted the potential expansion of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. He noted that around 550 million people currently participate in crypto markets worldwide.

Interestingly, he predicted that this figure could climb to one billion users by 2030, signaling that the industry remains in the early stages of mass adoption. Hoskinson also forecast a major transformation in global finance. Specifically, he expects a substantial portion of the world’s financial assets, including stocks, bonds, and equities, to migrate onto blockchain-based infrastructure over the next several years.

Why Short-Term Market Pullbacks Don’t Concern Him

Hoskinson also criticized investors’ tendency to panic during market corrections. In his view, minor drawdowns carry little significance when compared to the industry’s long-term adoption and expansion potential.

He argued that the crypto market is heading toward a valuation of $10 trillion or more, making temporary price declines relatively insignificant in the broader picture.

Furthermore, Hoskinson believes the global economy is steadily moving toward a future where digital assets become the primary medium of value exchange. He suggested that cryptocurrencies could eventually serve as the standard unit for pricing goods, services, and financial assets, reducing reliance on traditional fiat currencies.

Market Fear Persists Despite Long-Term Optimism

Meanwhile, the crypto market has continued to face significant volatility for most of the year. In recent weeks, major digital assets have experienced sharp declines, fueling uncertainty among investors. 

Bitcoin recently plunged to a 2024 low of $59,100, while Cardano fell below $0.15 for the first time since 2020. Consequently, market sentiment deteriorated, signaling extreme fear.

Amid the uncertainty, many investors rushed to reduce their exposure. Market commentator Darkfost noted that short-term holders transferred more than 80,000 BTC to exchanges within seven days as Bitcoin dropped toward $60,000.

Although prices later recovered, selling pressure has resurfaced in recent trading sessions. Bitcoin has fallen below $62,000, while Cardano has declined 4.52% over the same period to $0.1542. In the meantime, the total crypto market cap has slipped 2.86% to $2.14 trillion.

Nevertheless, Hoskinson remains unfazed. He continues to express confidence that cryptocurrency adoption will accelerate over the coming years, eventually reaching one billion users and driving widespread tokenization of real-world assets by 2030. 

XRP Holder Loses $16.8K in Payment Request Scam as Fake ‘Safe XRPL Verify Message’ Drains 14,646 XRP

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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0
XRP Holder Loses $16.8K in Payment Request Scam as Fake ‘Safe XRPL Verify Message’ Drains 14,646 XRP

An XRP holder has lost 14,646 XRP, worth about $16,800, after falling victim to a payment request scam on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). 

The incident has sparked interest in the XRP community, as a fraudulent transaction request disguised as a verification prompt. Notably, the scam involved a transaction with the hash “84AFDEB4…FBA5FD.”

Fake XRP Rewards Offer Tricked Victim

The victim was attracted by a promise of “10% monthly rewards” and a memo attached to the transaction request that read, “Safe XRPL verify message.”

However, the word “Safe” gave the transaction no legitimacy. A scammer created the memo to make the request appear official and trustworthy.

The victim eventually approved the pre-filled transaction request. As a result, 14,646 XRP was sent to the address “rNVdQM2A…wwbmH3,” which has since been flagged as fraudulent on XRPL explorers.

How XRPL Payment Requests Work

Meanwhile, payment requests are a legitimate feature on the XRP Ledger. They are supported by wallets such as Xaman and allow users to receive pre-filled payment requests through links or QR codes.

These requests include a destination address, payment amount, and an optional memo. Users normally review the details and approve the transaction if everything looks correct.

The feature is common for invoices, peer-to-peer payments, and tipping. However, scammers abuse it by creating requests that imitate verification messages or reward programs.

Always Double-Check Transactions

Following the incident, XRP community members urged users to be extra cautious. They noted that terms like “safe,” “verify,” or “reward” do not prove a transaction is legitimate.

Users should also verify destination addresses through blockchain explorers such as Bithomp or XRPScan before signing any transaction.

Investors should also avoid unsolicited links and offers promising unusually high returns. Notably, legitimate projects rarely require users to send XRP first in exchange for rewards or account verification.

The incident is another reminder that blockchain transactions are irreversible. A single mistaken approval permanently transfers funds to scammers.

Reacting to the incident, X user Wade Canell disclosed he traced his stolen assets to a specific exchange account and provided the information to law enforcement. According to the comment, efforts to have the funds frozen were unsuccessful, and the user expressed frustration with the response from local authorities.

Another user, Agent_Sam20, said he previously lost 40,000 XRP in a scam and urged others to carefully review every transaction before approving it. He noted that while stolen funds are traceable on-chain, recovery is far from guaranteed, even when incidents are reported quickly.

Reactions from community members
Reactions from community members

XRP to $10 in the Next 11 Months Not Impossible

Elendu Benedict
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XRP to $10 in the Next 11 Months Not Impossible

XRP is trading within a large rounding bottom on the weekly timeframe, and a breakout could push its price into double digits.

After a good start to the week, XRP has begun trending lower again. Over the past 24 hours, it has corrected by almost 2%, dropping from its intraweek high of $1.16 to the current price of $1.11.

Still, chart analysis shows that XRP remains on course for an outsized upward move, one that could take its price to unprecedented levels.

XRP In a Large Rounding Bottom

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see a large rounding bottom structure that XRP has strictly followed for months now. Since its July 2025 all-time high of $3.66, the coin has consistently aligned itself to the first part of this classic U-shaped pattern, making lower highs and lower lows.

Notably, the rounding bottom is a long-term reversal pattern, where momentum gradually shifts from bearish to bullish. Prices trend lower to the shape’s bottom, then bearish exhaustion kicks in. From the bottom’s support, bulls start to gain strength, pushing the asset higher to fill up the curve. What follows is a breakout to new heights.

Currently, XRP is at the bottom of this shape around the $1.10 support level. Notably, this aligns with a major area during the 2021 cycle where prices repeatedly faced rejection before breaking above in November 2024. Holding this support is crucial as it not only validates the rounding bottom pattern but also prevents prices from crashing to lower levels.

Trendline Breakout to Set Recovery in Motion

Within this U-shaped pattern is a descending trendline that has capped upside attempts since July 2025. Each rally to the resistance has ended up as a lower high, with XRP sliding lower from there.

 

XRP Rounding Bottom
XRP Rounding Bottom

Now that XRP has reached the bottom, the first crucial task on its path to recovery is breaking above this descending trendline, currently near $1.30. From the current market price, this represents a 17% growth.

If momentum sustains, XRP could continue its recovery to fill the rounding bottom structure. This could see it rise by 206% to the pattern’s resistance neckline at $3.40.

XRP to $10 in 11 Months?

Meanwhile, a successful breakout sets XRP on course for a strong upward move. Considering the bullish nature and length of the consolidation within the pattern, a move to a new all-time high of $10 could be the next line of action.

This target also came about while considering the depth of the rounding bottom. Specifically, XRP would rally by 201% from the bottom to the neckline resistance. A similar move after the breakout aligns with the $10 price level.

Notably, the timeline for XRP to reach this target remains unknown, but analysts are increasingly confident that it could happen in the next 11 months, aligning with June 2027. This remains highly speculative and requires a broader crypto recovery attempt. Bullish regulatory developments like the Senate passage of the CLARITY Act could also aid this rally.

XRP Now in a Position Where the Best Risk/Reward Appears: Here are the Upside Targets

Mark Brennan
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XRP Now in a Position Where the Best Risk/Reward Appears: Here are the Upside Targets

XRP has now slipped to a position within the Gaussian Channel where the best risk/reward appears.

XRP remains under bearish pressure as the broader crypto market continues to decline. At press time, the asset had fallen to $1.11, bringing its total loss for June to 16.39%. 

However, despite this weakness, well-known market analyst EGRAG Crypto believes XRP may have reached an important technical level. 

According to his latest analysis, XRP has retested the lower boundary of the Gaussian Channel on the 2-week chart. Notably, this level has historically provided attractive buying opportunities before major price rallies.

XRP Returns to a Historically Important Zone

EGRAG’s chart shows that XRP has again moved to the lower end of the 2-week Gaussian Channel. Considering previous market cycles, the analyst sees this area as one of the best risk-to-reward zones for investors.

However, XRP’s upside targets would depend on how it interacts with a central line running through the Gaussian Channel. EGRAG called this line a major dividing point between accumulation periods and profit-taking phases. 

Historically, XRP has traded in periods featuring fear and opportunity while below this line. In contrast, once the asset moves above it, the market has often entered a phase of strong expansion and massive gains.

XRP 2Week Gaussian Channel EGRAG Crypto
XRP 2Week Gaussian Channel | EGRAG Crypto

EGRAG leveraged this historical behavior to present two potential price targets for XRP during the next major move higher.

Historical Trends Suggest Possible XRP Move to $8

The analyst based his projections on XRP’s previous performance relative to the Gaussian Channel’s central line. According to EGRAG, one major cycle saw XRP rise about 330% above the central line, while another cycle recorded gains of roughly 200%.

When he averaged these two historical moves, EGRAG arrived at an expansion rate of around 265%. Applying this figure to the current market structure produces an upper target close to $8.

The analyst stressed that this projection is not based on market excitement or speculation. However, it comes from XRP’s historical tendency to secure massive gains after reclaiming the central line.

Conservative Outlook Still Points to $5.7

EGRAG also presented a more conservative outlook in case XRP fails to match the strength that it displayed in earlier cycles.

In this situation, the analyst assumes that XRP would achieve only 60% of the gains recorded during previous expansions. Since one prior cycle delivered a 200% move above the central line, achieving 60% of that performance would result in an increase of approximately 120%.

Based on this calculation, EGRAG identified $5.7 as a conservative price target. Meanwhile, the average-cycle projection still sits near $8. According to the analyst, he bases both targets on historical data and XRP’s previous expansions above the central line.

XRP Investors Should Consider Early Positioning 

Speaking further, EGRAG noted that investors should focus on accumulating XRP near the lower boundary of the Gaussian Channel while waiting for the asset to reclaim the central line. Once XRP moves decisively above that level, investors may consider taking significant profits.

Although XRP currently remains in what EGRAG calls an uncomfortable zone, history shows this area often offers the most favorable risk-to-reward setup. 

The analyst believes investors should position themselves before broader market participation returns instead of trying to identify the exact market bottom or chasing rising prices.

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