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XRP Down 69%, But History Shows Deeper Bear Markets Are Possible

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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XRP Down 69%, But History Shows Deeper Bear Markets Are Possible

XRP has fallen about 69% from its July 2025 peak of $3.66, according to data comparing the asset’s major historical drawdowns.

While the decline is significant, it remains much smaller than the devastating corrections seen in previous XRP bear markets. This has sparked new conversations among observers.

Some believe XRP’s price is benefiting from a more mature market structure, while others think another capitulation phase could still lie ahead.

How XRP Past Bear Markets Compare

Historical data shows XRP has endured steep losses in every major market cycle:

  • 2013–2014: 95% decline over roughly 7 months
  • 2018–2020: 96% decline across about 26 months
  • 2021–2022: 85% decline in around 14 months
  • 2025–2026: 69% decline so far after approximately 11 months

The trend suggests XRP’s drawdowns have generally become less severe over time. The current correction is substantially smaller than the 95%–96% collapses recorded in earlier cycles.

What a 96% Drawdown Would Look Like

XRP reached a cycle high of $3.66 in July 2025 and currently trades near $1.10, representing a decline of roughly 69.9%. If XRP were to match its worst historical drawdown of 96%, the price would fall to about $0.15.

That would require XRP to drop another 86.7% from its current level. For comparison:

  • 85% drawdown: about $0.55
  • 95% drawdown: about $0.18
  • 96% drawdown: about $0.15

A move to those levels would return XRP to price zones last seen during the lawsuit era. For instance, XRP hit $0.17 in December 2020, shortly after the SEC lawsuit was announced.

Stronger Market?

Some commentators believe XRP’s progressively smaller drawdowns reflect a maturing market. Notable supporting factors include:

  • Greater institutional participation via ETFs
  • Deeper liquidity across exchanges
  • Expanded adoption of XRP and the XRP Ledger ecosystem
  • A more favorable regulatory climate

According to supporters, XRP may no longer experience the extreme 95%–96% collapses that defined earlier cycles.

“Bottom Not In”

But not everyone is convinced the bottom is in. The current correction is only about 11 months old, and some traders believe another leg lower remains possible before a long-term bottom is established.

The 2018–2020 cycle, for example, lasted more than two years before bottoming out. Specifically, XRP fell from $3.84 in January 2018 to $0.1151 in March 2020, enduring a prolonged bear market.

Meanwhile, in the current cycle, analysts have mostly floated low-price targets between $0.50 and $0.90 as potential XRP lows. They consider this range a possible entry zone for long-term investment.

For now, while XRP’s 69% decline is its mildest major bear-market correction in more than a decade, the risk of lower prices remains, especially as many believe Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out.

Market Expert Reveals $2M Profit From Early Shiba Inu Trade

Lele Jima
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Market Expert Reveals $2M Profit From Early Shiba Inu Trade

Market commentator Ryker has reflected on Shiba Inu’s early success story and how he generated millions of dollars during SHIB’s explosive 2021 rally. 

Notably, Ryker revealed that he made $2 million in profit from SHIB during its historic rally. According to him, he entered the market early and eventually exited his position after the token surged above $0.00008.

However, Ryker did not disclose the size of his initial investment or the entry price that enabled him to secure the multi-million-dollar gain. Nonetheless, his experience mirrors the stories of several early SHIB investors who recorded extraordinary returns during the token’s formative years.

Shiba Inu Overcame Early Skepticism 

Shiba Inu launched in August 2020 but quickly fell to around $0.000000000056, with many critics initially dismissing it as another failed meme coin. However, sentiment began to shift in early 2021 as community activity intensified and major exchanges, including Binance, listed the token for trading.

Meanwhile, a major turning point came when pseudonymous founder Ryoshi sent 500 trillion SHIB, or half of the total supply, to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Subsequently, Buterin burned 410 trillion tokens and donated the remainder to charity, an action that significantly boosted attention and demand for the project.

As retail inflows accelerated, SHIB surged to an all-time high of $0.00008845, transforming small early positions into life-changing profits for some holders. Reports from that period include investors turning a few hundred dollars into millions, underscoring the scale of the 2021 speculative rally.

Ryker Says Market Cap Does Not Limit Growth Potential

Meanwhile, Ryker shared his experience while discussing lessons he learned from the rise of meme coins such as Shiba Inu and Dogecoin. According to him, market cap alone does not determine a cryptocurrency’s upside potential. He argued that investors should evaluate factors such as token distribution, market narrative, liquidity, and community engagement.

Applying that strategy, Ryker said he identified SHIB’s potential early and captured $2 million in profits during the token’s meteoric rise.

SHIB Remains Far Below Its Record High

Despite its remarkable 2021 performance, Shiba Inu remains a shadow of its former peak. The token currently trades around $0.000004560, representing a decline of 94.85% from its all-time high of $0.00008845. 

Shiba Inu has fallen 19% over the past month, declined 7.74% in the past seven days, and dropped 34% year-to-date. At its current market valuation of roughly $2.68 billion, SHIB ranks as the 30th-largest cryptocurrency globally by market capitalization. 

Hoskinson Says “I Just Don’t Want to See Cardano Die,” Believes There’s No Reason ADA Can’t Revisit Previous Highs

Lele Jima
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Hoskinson Says “I Just Don’t Want to See Cardano Die,” Believes There’s No Reason ADA Can’t Revisit Previous Highs

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has called on the community to rediscover the passion and optimism that once propelled the blockchain project to its greatest achievements.

Hoskinson delivered the message during his latest livestream while discussing Cardano’s future. During the broadcast, he said he is working to recapture the spark and magic that fueled Cardano’s early momentum and united the ecosystem behind a shared vision.

According to him, the Cardano community needs a cause to rally around once again if it hopes to reclaim past successes and compete for leadership in the blockchain industry.

“Cardano Needs to Get Back Its Mojo”

Hoskinson stressed that Cardano already possesses all the necessary attributes required for long-term success. He argued that the ecosystem had made the right technological decisions, established a strong research foundation, and assembled world-class talent capable of solving some of the industry’s toughest challenges.

However, he believes the project has lost some of the confidence and momentum that once defined it.

“We just have to get our mojo back,” Hoskinson remarked, expressing confidence that the ecosystem can return to previous highs and continue growing. This implies that he expects the token to revisit its previous ATH of $3.10, which was recorded in September 2021. 

Hoskinson Fears Seeing Cardano Fade Away

The Cardano founder also revealed his deep personal attachment to the project, admitting that he does not want to see the network fail after dedicating years of his life to its development.

He explained that much of his professional career has centered on waking up each day to build something meaningful and successful. Given his commitment to the project, he said, “I don’t want to see Cardano die.” 

Despite his continued commitment to Cardano, Hoskinson emphasized that the ecosystem’s future should not depend solely on him. Notably, he challenged critics and aspiring leaders within the community to present their own visions if they believe they can guide the network more effectively. In his view, leadership in decentralized ecosystems must be earned by convincing the community and attracting support behind a compelling strategy.

ADA Collapse Fuels Concerns Across the Ecosystem

Hoskinson’s comments come amid growing concerns and weakening sentiment across the Cardano ecosystem following ADA’s dramatic price decline.

The cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of $3.10 in September 2021 but has since fallen by 95.12% to $0.1509. Macroeconomic pressures, broader market weakness, and internal ecosystem challenges all contributed to the decline.

In addition, the ecosystem has faced several setbacks, including public disputes, project shutdowns, and governance-related controversies. Governance tensions ultimately contributed to the cancellation of the Cardano Summit 2026, while several key entities announced their departure from the ecosystem. 

Despite these challenges, Hoskinson remains bullish on Cardano. He has repeatedly dismissed claims that the project is dead and continues to argue that Cardano still has a viable path to success. With strong community backing, he even believes the network could eventually surpass Bitcoin.

Leios Testnet Goes Live 

Meanwhile, Hoskinson’s company, Input Output Global (IOG), has announced the launch of Musashi Dojo, a public testnet designed to accelerate Cardano’s upcoming Ouroboros Leios scaling upgrade.

The initiative, developed in collaboration with the Cardano Foundation, Intersect, and Blink Labs, represents an important milestone in testing the network’s next generation of performance improvements.

Leios introduces a new architecture that incorporates input endorsers and parallel transaction processing. The upgrade aims to significantly increase network throughput while preserving Cardano’s core principles of decentralization and security.

The Musashi Dojo testnet will advance through multiple development phases as engineers evaluate performance, stability, and consensus behavior under real-world conditions. If testing progresses successfully, developers expect the Leios upgrade to move toward a mainnet hard fork targeted for late 2026. 

SBI Slashes XRP/JPY Spread by 78% to Boost XRP Leverage Activity

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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SBI Slashes XRP/JPY Spread by 78% to Boost XRP Leverage Activity

Japanese crypto exchange subsidiary SBI VC Trade has significantly reduced trading costs for XRP traders. 

The company has lowered the standard spread on XRP/JPY leveraged trading to 0.5 yen for a limited time.

SBI says the offer provides the narrowest spread in the industry. The promotion aims to encourage more Japanese investors to participate in leveraged XRP trading.

XRP Leverage Trading Support Week Begins

According to SBI VC Trade, the campaign runs from June 22 to July 3, 2026. The offer comes under the banner “Breaking the Spread Limit! XRP/JPY Leverage Trading Support Week.”

During the promotion, traders using the VCTRADE platform can access XRP/JPY leveraged trading with a standard spread of just 0.5 yen. SBI noted that spreads may widen temporarily during periods of high market volatility. Under normal conditions, however, the promotional rate will remain in place.

The company added that the same spread is also being offered through SBI FX Trade during the campaign.

Trading Spread Falls by Nearly 80%

The biggest highlight of the campaign is the sharp reduction in trading costs. SBI said the new 0.5-yen spread is about 78% lower than the average XRP/JPY spread of 2.3633 yen recorded on its platform in May 2026. The promotional spread is less than one-quarter of the pair’s typical trading cost.

According to the exchange, lower spreads can reduce transaction expenses and help traders avoid larger unrealized losses immediately after opening positions. This could make leveraged XRP trading more appealing during the campaign period.

XRP Remains Popular Among SBI Customers

SBI used the announcement to highlight XRP’s strong presence among its customers.

The company noted that XRP is included in shareholder reward programs run by several Japanese firms, including businesses linked to the broader SBI Group. As a result, XRP remains one of the most widely held digital assets among its users.

SBI said the campaign seeks to give these investors more opportunities to use their XRP holdings through leveraged trading.

Japan’s Retail Traders Could Drive More XRP Activity

The promotion has drawn attention from the XRP community because of Japan’s active retail trading market.

Market observers note that Japanese retail traders account for a large share of global foreign exchange activity. Some estimates suggest that more than 35% of worldwide retail FX trading volume comes from Japan. Reports also indicate that roughly one in six Japanese retail traders uses leverage.

With XRP/JPY trading costs temporarily reduced to record-low levels, the campaign could boost XRP trading activity in the coming weeks.

SBI Deepens Its Commitment to XRP

The promotion further highlights SBI Group’s long-standing support for XRP and the XRP Ledger ecosystem.

Under the leadership of Yoshitaka Kitao, SBI has remained one of XRP’s most prominent institutional backers in Japan. The company has consistently integrated XRP into various business initiatives and customer programs.

The new campaign follows SBI’s recent BTC/JPY leveraged trading promotion. It also signals that the company continues to view XRP as a key asset within its digital asset offerings.

Hyperliquid Whales Bet Big on Cardano but Face Combined $1.71M Unrealized Losses

Elendu Benedict
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Hyperliquid Whales Bet Big on Cardano but Face Combined $1.71M Unrealized Losses

Two Hyperliquid whales are betting on Cardano to recover, taking sizable long positions, but they are already in the red as the coin has continued to fall.

Cardano (ADA) is in an obvious downtrend, but all hope is not lost for the prominent altcoin. Large market participants remain optimistic that it will recover from its prolonged correction and reach higher prices.

Among others, two whales are particularly putting their money on this optimism. On-chain data shows huge leveraged bets on an ADA reversal on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, but this is currently going south.

Whales on Cardano Long Positions

The first trader with the address “0x51f63” has an open 10x long position on Cardano valued at $2.6 million (17.3 million ADA). This whale opened this trade when the coin traded at $0.176, a price last seen in early June.

However, his bet has not gone according to plan. At the time of writing, the address is nursing unrealized losses of $431,660, which is 165% of its actual margin size on the Cardano position. Had the wallet not contained more capital or gains from other trades, the position would already have been liquidated.

Cardano Whale Bet on Hyperliquid
Cardano Whale Bet on Hyperliquid

Interestingly, the long trade has no liquidation price, highlighting the whale’s deep pocket and ability to hold the position even if ADA drops much lower.

At the same time, another whale is suffering a worse unrealized loss on ADA. Address “0x123dbc” has a similar 10x leveraged long but is on an unrealized loss of $1.28 million. This is because he opened the bet, worth $1.28 million (8.4 million ADA), at an entry price of $0.303. Notably, Cardano last traded at this level in February.

The unrealized loss is already a staggering 1,003% of his margin size. However, since it is a cross position, profits from other trades and the undeployed capital have kept it going. There is also no estimated liquidation price due to the magnitude of the portfolio.

Cardano Whale Sits on $1.28M Unrealized Loss
Cardano Whale Sits on $1.28M Unrealized Loss

Cardano Down 35% in 30 Days

The sizable bets are in the red solely because Cardano has continued to drop lower for a prolonged period. Over the past 30 days, the coin has lost over one-third of its value, specifically dropping 35% to $0.15.

ADA has further stepped back from its peak price this cycle, crashing 88% from $1.32 in December 2024. While the trend mirrors a broader market move, Cardano has been one of the worst-performing. 

For context, no other asset in the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap has dropped as much as ADA in the past 30 days. This has ensured it dropped six places from 10th to 16th in the market cap rankings.

Nonetheless, analysts view this as a temporary phase. With the asset’s risk-to-reward becoming more appealing, a recovery to reclaim key resistance levels when the broader market conditions turn positive again would substantially benefit those who bought the current dip.

The next key level to watch is the $0.13 support, where ADA consolidated in December 2020 before a bullish continuation. Breaking below could take the coin towards $0.10, aligning with an ABC corrective Elliott Wave target.

Cardano 1M Chart
Cardano 1M Chart

XRP Retail and Whale Futures Sentiment Reads “Extremely Bullish” Across Exchanges

Mark Brennan
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XRP Retail and Whale Futures Sentiment Reads “Extremely Bullish” Across Exchanges

The XRP retail and whale futures sentiment reads “extremely bullish” across multiple exchanges such as Binance and Bybit.

This comes despite the persistent market struggles that have pushed the XRP price to lows around $1.10. While short volume dominates the futures environment with $1.03 billion, exchange long/short ratios confirm an “extremely bullish” bias for retail and whale accounts.

XRP Futures Sentiment Lean “Extremely Bullish”

According to data provided by Coinglass, a leading market analytics platform, more traders are holding long positions than shorts, as market participants continue to anticipate a rebound effort from XRP following the recent crash.

Specifically, the retail long/short ratio on Binance stands at 2.68, confirming a dominance of long positions and indicating an “extremely bullish” sentiment. 

For whale accounts on Binance, the long/short ratio reads 3.03, which suggests there are at least 3 accounts holding long positions for every 1 account holding short positions. This also indicates an “extremely bullish” sentiment among whale accounts.

XRP LongShort Ratio Coinglass
XRP LongShort Ratio | Coinglass

While the XRP long/short ratio for whale positions on Binance has dropped to 1.55, suggesting that either long positions have reduced or short positions have increased, the current reading also tilts to the positive side, indicating a “bullish” sentiment in this area.

The ratios on OKX and Bybit are similarly bullish across most metrics. For OKX, the retail long/short ratio sits at 2.67, indicating “extremely bullish” sentiment. Whale account ratio has dropped to 1.39, confirming a merely “bullish” sentiment. For whale positions, the long/short ratio has spiked to an extreme reading of 23.00.

Meanwhile, Bybit sees a 4.02 ratio for retail accounts (extremely bullish), a 4.01 ratio for whale accounts (extremely bullish), and a 0.97 ratio for whale position (neutral). 

However, smart money sentiment for Binance and Bybit sits at “Extremely Bearish,” with only OKX seeing an “Extremely Bullish” sentiment here.

XRP Futures Volume

Further data from Coinglass shows that the 24-hour volume for short positions amounts to $1.03 billion, marginally surpassing long volume at $978 million. 

However, the volume situation is not significant to market sentiments, as long and short volumes are often nearly equal in derivatives markets. This is because the market often features long and short positions in equal volume at a 1:1 ratio, with only a slight skew.

Meanwhile, the XRP liquidation heatmap indicates that XRP is witnessing more liquidity above its current price, confirming a dominance of massive shorts, with the largest single cluster involving $402 million at $1.11. If XRP’s price surges toward this level, this could set the stage for a potential short squeeze.

XRP Liquidation Heatmap Coinglass
XRP Liquidation Heatmap | Coinglass

Whale in $631,000 Loss on XRP After Opening 20X Leveraged Long

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Whale in $631,000 Loss on XRP After Opening 20X Leveraged Long

A trader on Hyperliquid is experiencing losses on an XRP trade after taking on a massive leveraged position worth nearly $31 million.

The position drew attention in the crypto community due to its size, high leverage, and the uncertainty currently affecting crypto markets.

Data from Hyperliquid Whale Tracker shows the trader opened a 27.92 million XRP long position using 20x leverage over the past four hours. The position is worth roughly $30.84 million and was entered at an average price of around $1.127.

High-Risk XRP Bet

The trade signals strong confidence in XRP, even as the token’s price remains under pressure. According to the tracker, the whale’s 27.92 million XRP position has a liquidation price of about $0.9115. At the time of the snapshot, the trade was showing an unrealized loss of approximately $631,000.

XRP’s price is trading near $1.10, down 9% over the past seven days. The token has also fallen 18% in the last month and remains about 40% lower year-to-date.

Despite the downturn, some traders appear to be positioning for a rebound. The whale’s latest move suggests confidence that XRP could recover from current levels.

Source: CoinGlass
Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin Position Pushes Loss Over $2M

Meanwhile, the trader is not only betting on XRP. The same account also holds an 809.9 BTC long position with 20x leverage. The Bitcoin trade is worth about $50.9 million and was opened at an average entry price of roughly $65,050.

At the time of the snapshot, the Bitcoin position was showing an unrealized loss of around $1.77 million.

Together, the XRP and Bitcoin trades are worth more than $81 million. Meanwhile, the trader’s combined unrealized losses exceeded $2.1 million, while losses over the past 24 hours were more than $1.3 million.

Notably, Bitcoin has also struggled in recent weeks. The leading cryptocurrency is trading around $62,200. It is down 4.3% over the past week and roughly 18% over the last month. Bitcoin remains about 30% lower year-to-date.

The Road Ahead

By maintaining large long positions in XRP and Bitcoin, the whale is betting that the recent sell-off is a buying opportunity. However, many market watchers expect XRP to dip further below $0.5 before a sustainable rebound.

For instance, Ali Martinez has said $0.90 could be a good buying opportunity for long-term holders. On the other hand, an analysis by The Crypto Basic suggests even lower levels. It suggests XRP price could revisit November 2024 lows of $0.6, which could open the door to a new all-time high.

Essentially, XRP is under pressure for now, and any rebound is likely to be short-lived.

SecondFi (Formerly Yoroi Wallet) Hack Losses May Exceed 129 Million ADA

Lele Jima
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SecondFi (Formerly Yoroi Wallet) Hack Losses May Exceed 129 Million ADA

EMURGO-backed wallet provider SecondFi is facing growing scrutiny after a major security breach, as new analysis indicates that losses suffered by Cardano users may be significantly higher than initially reported.

While the company previously estimated that the attack resulted in the theft of 16 million ADA, blockchain investigators now believe the total impact exceeds 129 million ADA and other tokens.

It is worth noting that SecondFi was previously known as Yoroi Wallet, the first Cardano light wallet launched in 2018 by EMURGO, one of Cardano’s founding entities. In April 2026, EMURGO rebranded Yoroi as SecondFi and expanded it from a single-chain Cardano light wallet into a comprehensive “neo-finance” application.

Security Researchers Suggest Losses Are Much Higher

Earlier this week, SecondFi, a web wallet backed by Cardano founding entity EMURGO, disclosed a devastating security incident that led to the loss of millions of ADA from user accounts.

According to the project’s preliminary findings, attackers exploited a vulnerability in its proprietary wallet-generation software, enabling them to steal approximately 16 million ADA. At the time of the report, the stolen funds were valued at around $2.4 million.

However, fresh analysis indicates that the actual scale of the breach could be significantly larger. 

Yu Xian, also known as Cosine and founder of blockchain security firm SlowMist, examined fund movements linked to wallets suspected of being controlled by the attacker. Based on the observed transactions, he suggested that total user losses may have surpassed $20 million.

In a post on X, Cosine noted that more than 129 million ADA, along with several other tokens, appeared to have flowed through addresses associated with the exploit. 

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Cardano Community Voices Concern

The incident has triggered widespread concern across the Cardano community. Many members criticized both the security failure and its broader implications for ecosystem governance.

Community member David described the breach as alarming because users lost funds without signing transactions. He also pointed to the fact that SecondFi controls one of the largest DRep delegations in Cardano’s governance system, arguing that the incident raises serious concerns about decentralization and trust. 

Meanwhile, community member Dori labeled the breach one of the most severe incidents the ecosystem has experienced. According to Dori, the fact that a wallet associated with a Cardano founding organization was compromised makes the event especially damaging to the network’s reputation.

Analyst Clarifies Cardano Blockchain Was Not Compromised

Despite the growing criticism, some ecosystem participants have stressed that the incident should not be interpreted as a failure of the Cardano blockchain itself.

Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello pushed back against claims that Cardano had been hacked, emphasizing that the vulnerability originated within SecondFi’s wallet software rather than the blockchain network.

Gambardello noted that the issue is tied to the wallet’s key-generation process, not to any flaw in Cardano’s core infrastructure, consensus mechanism, or protocol security.

Blink Labs Urges Users to Assume Wallets Are Compromised

Meanwhile, Cardano infrastructure provider Blink Labs issued a precautionary warning to users who previously created wallets through the SecondFi application.

The company advised affected users to generate a new wallet using trusted software obtained from official sources, transfer all assets to the newly created wallet, and select a new stake pool and DRep delegation. 

Blink Labs further stressed that users should treat their existing SecondFi-generated wallets as compromised until investigators determine the full scope of the incident. However, SecondFi has urged users not to restore their recovery phrases into other Cardano wallets.

Instead, the company advised affected users to submit support tickets and wait for official instructions while the investigation remains ongoing. According to SecondFi, additional guidance will be provided once the independent security review is completed and the exact nature of the vulnerability is fully understood. 

Why Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying May No Longer Be Driving Prices Higher

Mark Brennan
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Why Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying May No Longer Be Driving Prices Higher

Recent analysis from CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has reignited debate around whether Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) should continue aggressively accumulating Bitcoin at current levels.

While the company remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, the latest data suggests that persistent buying may no longer be acting as a meaningful price catalyst and could instead be functioning as a liquidity sink in a market struggling to establish a new directional trend.

A Market Absorbing Capital Without Advancing

One of the most striking charts compares Bitcoin’s Market Cap growth versus Realized Cap growth. Realized Cap, which measures the aggregate value of coins based on their last on-chain transaction price, has increased by approximately $467 billion over the past two years. Historically, such an influx of capital would be expected to drive substantial price appreciation.

Bitcoin's Market Cap growth versus Realized Cap growth.
Image Source: https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/2069646523668033833

Instead, Bitcoin has largely traded sideways within a broad range.

The chart shows that the difference between market cap growth and realized cap growth has recently turned negative, represented by the red zones indicating elevated selling pressure. This suggests that new capital entering the market is being met by an equally strong wave of distribution. Rather than driving prices higher, incoming demand is simply facilitating ownership transfer from existing holders to new buyers.

In practical terms, the market is absorbing enormous amounts of capital without producing sustained upside momentum.

Strategy’s Financial Position Is Tightening

The second chart highlights a growing concern regarding Strategy’s balance sheet.

At the beginning of 2026, the company’s cash reserve peaked at approximately $2.2 billion. Following convertible note repurchases and continued Bitcoin acquisitions, cash reserves declined sharply by around 38%, falling to roughly $870 million before recovering modestly to approximately $1.4 billion.

Strategy's balance sheet
Strategy’s balance sheet

More concerning is the deterioration in dividend coverage.

Dividend coverage, measured in months, has collapsed from more than 80 months of coverage to just 14 months, one of the lowest levels on record. While the company still maintains substantial Bitcoin holdings, its liquid cash position has become increasingly constrained relative to its obligations.

The chart clearly illustrates a diverging trend:

  • Cash reserves have declined materially.
  • Dividend obligations have increased.
  • Financial flexibility has weakened.

This does not imply immediate financial distress, but it does suggest that continued aggressive Bitcoin purchases come at a growing opportunity cost.

Why Continuous Buying May Be Counterproductive

According to CryptoQuant’s thesis, Bitcoin cycles traditionally reset through a familiar sequence:

  1. Capitulation
  2. Weak-hand liquidation
  3. Price collapse
  4. Whale accumulation
  5. New bull market

This cycle has been unusual.

Instead of experiencing a deep cleansing drawdown, Bitcoin has spent nearly two years moving sideways. The market has neither generated enough strength to launch a decisive bull market nor enough weakness to force widespread capitulation.

As a result:

  • Weak hands remain active.
  • Profit-taking opportunities continue to emerge.
  • Strong hands have not accumulated at historically attractive valuations.

Under these conditions, Strategy’s continued purchases may simply provide exit liquidity for existing holders rather than creating sustainable upward momentum.

The market is effectively stuck in a state of equilibrium.

A More Disciplined Framework

The argument is not that Strategy should abandon Bitcoin. Rather, it should consider adopting a more systematic capital allocation model.

Potential steps include:

  • Temporarily pausing Bitcoin purchases.
  • Rebuilding cash reserves.
  • Restoring dividend coverage.
  • Establishing quantitative accumulation thresholds based on market conditions.
  • Developing a future profit-taking framework during periods of extreme market exuberance.

Such an approach would transform Bitcoin acquisitions from a continuous buying program into a dynamic capital management strategy.

Conclusion

Bitcoin remains a structurally scarce asset with powerful long-term fundamentals. However, scarcity alone does not eliminate the importance of timing and balance sheet management.

The current on-chain data suggests that the market is experiencing elevated selling pressure despite significant capital inflows. Meanwhile, Strategy’s shrinking cash reserves and rapidly declining dividend coverage indicate that financial flexibility is becoming increasingly valuable.

If the market truly requires a deeper reset before the next major expansion phase, preserving liquidity today may ultimately provide Strategy with far greater purchasing power when the next genuine accumulation opportunity emerges. In that scenario, patience—not relentless buying—could become the company’s most valuable asset.

Cardano Now Ranks as the 4th Most Decentralized Network

Elendu Benedict
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Cardano Now Ranks as the 4th Most Decentralized Network

The Cardano network ranks as one of the most decentralized networks in the crypto space, as the chances of compromise become nearly impossible.

Decentralization in this context refers to the even distribution of control and authority among network participants.

A well-decentralized network has broader participation in decision-making and is censorship resistant. Currently, Cardano ranks among the top four in crypto networks with these features.

Cardano Nakamoto Coefficient at 23

This ranking was determined by the Nakamoto coefficient. Named after Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto, the metric measures how decentralized a network is using multiple factors. One is the minimum number of independent entities that have enough control to disrupt consensus.

Disrupting consensus for a Proof of Stake mechanism requires 33% of the total stake or voting power. For Proof of Work, a miner would need 50% of the total hash power to achieve censorship.

The higher a network’s Nakamoto coefficient, the more decentralized it is.  As of June 23, Cardano has a score of 23, the fourth-highest among all blockchains. This means that it would take the agreement of 23 independent network contributors to compromise the network. Analysts view this as a nearly impossible scenario in practice.

Notably, only three networks are more decentralized than Cardano using this metric. Polkadot ranks first with a Nakamoto coefficient of 178, the Ton Network ranks second at 72, while Avalanche ranks third at 26.

Cardano Ranks as the 4th Most Decentralized Network
Cardano Ranks as the 4th Most Decentralized Network

The debut of the fully decentralized governance system on Cardano through the Plomin hard fork played a major part in its ranking. The transition moved control of the network to ADA holders, allowing them to decide what happens on the network. Notably, this governance system has had its peaks and downsides for the ecosystem.

Cardano Has Its Cheapest Transaction Fees in Months

Furthermore, fees on Cardano have dropped to their lowest in months. Data shows that the current average ADA transaction fee stands at $0.056 as of June 22.

Notably, this has been one of the lowest since March, when the average fees stood around $0.082. Between April and May, Cardano transaction fees crossed $0.09 on multiple occasions but hovered mostly around $0.07-$0.08.

Cardano Average Transaction Fee
Cardano Average Transaction Fee

However, the dollar value paid to transact on the network started to fall in June. On Saturday, it dropped to a low of $0.051, its lowest since March. The continued decline makes using Cardano cheaper, a scenario that encourages adoption.

Nonetheless, a price decline could also have impacted the fees. The average transaction fee on Cardano is 0.3541 ADA. In March, when the asset traded at $0.28, this would translate to a dollar fee of around $0.099. At the current price of $0.15, this drops to around $0.053.

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