Bitcoin Flashes 2018 Cycle Bottom Signal Even As Grayscale GBTC Hits Record Discount

Bitcoin flashes a bottom signal, but traders remain bearish.

Glassnode disclosed in a tweet yesterday that Bitcoin holders in the last 365 have seen $213 billion in realized losses.

Meanwhile, in contrast, they saw $455 billion in gains during the 2020 to 2021 bull market. According to Glassnode, it represents a 47% capital loss on the profits from the last bull run, similar to the peak of the 2018 bear market cycle.

Notably, the chart shows that it coincided with the price bottom for that cycle. 

Over the last 365-days, a total of $213B in Realized Loss has been locked in by #Bitcoin investors.

This compares to yearly Profits of $455B realized in the 2020-21 bull.

This reflects a relative capital loss of ~47% of the bull market gains, similar in scale to the 2018 cycle. pic.twitter.com/y5jaSWEZ83

— glassnode (@glassnode) December 8, 2022

However, despite the bottom signal, not all investors are convinced that the markets will reverse, and for a good reason. As highlighted by one user, this bear market is not like the others due to prevailing macroeconomic conditions that the crypto markets face for the first time. It is a sentiment experienced price action trader Justin Bennett expressed earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, Wu Blockchain reported that Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust offering, GBTC, is trading at a record discount of 47.84%. As previously reported, the discount to the actual asset price indicates significant investor bearishness. It bears mentioning that Grayscale’s parent company Digital Currency Group is under a cloud of uncertainty as Genesis Trading, another subsidiary, battles insolvency concerns.

Additionally, whales are capitulating, per data shared by Ali Martinez yesterday. According to Santiment data shared by the Bitcoin analyst on Twitter, about 33 whales holding 1000 to 100,000 BTC have left the network, selling about 20k BTC in the 96 hours before. 

#Bitcoin | Around 33 whales holding 1,000 to 100,000 $BTC have left the network, and these whales sold or redistributed around 20,000 $BTC in the last 96 hours. pic.twitter.com/1UdwaerN2U

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 8, 2022

Prominent Traders Remain Bearish 

Notably, the overall sentiment for several prominent traders remains bearish. 

il Capo of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_), who has made several accurate predictions lately in his last tweet on November 28, disclosed that he remains convinced that Bitcoin is heading to $12k. As a result, the trader has decided to abstain from posting until his bias is confirmed or invalidated.

Meanwhile, PROFIT BLUE (@profit8blue) yesterday asserted that we are heading to $10k in the next 25 days. “If I’m wrong, we’re still going there,” the trader declared, expressing his conviction. 

IncomeSharks (@IncomeSharks), who does not seem as bearish as the rest, shared a chart with Bitcoin on a 4-hour uptrend, indicating that the asset’s price has formed a range between $17,200 and $16,800. However, it is worth noting that we are at the top of the range, with Bitcoin trading at about $17,214 at press time.

#Bitcoin – Nice 4h range forming. Diagonal been holding up. Nice to see us bouncing where we needed to but until we see a nice close above the channel we are still range trading. pic.twitter.com/Ceybr15Cme

— IncomeSharks (@IncomeSharks) December 8, 2022

As previously reported, Standard Chartered believes the price of Bitcoin will drop another 70% in 2023, urging investors to stack up on gold instead. At the same time, the European Central Bank is pushing the narrative that Bitcoin is on the road to an irrecoverable decline.

However, it bears mentioning that it will not be the first time legacy finance and mainstream media have predicted the death of the asset. Despite the market downturn, industry leaders are confident that Bitcoin will stage a comeback. Investors should brace for a bumpy ride, though.