Metrics suggest the firstborn crypto might have seen the worst phase of the cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been underperforming along with all major risk assets amid global economic woes. Still, some analysts believe the firstborn crypto might have already seen the worst phase of the current cycle and is poised for a comeback. Others think the floor has not yet been formed.
The BTC MVRV Ratio
JA Maartun, a verified CryptoQuant author, believes BTC is “heavily” undervalued, as he recently made a case for this assertion. Maartun highlighted bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio in his analysis. The MVRV Ratio is used to determine how overvalued or undervalued an asset is based on the ratio of its market value to its realized value.
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) January 1, 2023
Data from a chart indicates that bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has dipped below 1 for the first time in 2 years. Historically, an MVRV Ratio below 1 signifies a possible market bottom. According to the chart, bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has only fallen below 1 on four occasions in the past: in November 2011, January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020. It signified a market bottom each time and was preceded by a price rebound.
Maartun conducted a poll, seeking investors’ opinions on how they believe BTC will perform by the end of the year. Out of 405 respondents as of press time, 65% believe the asset’s price will go higher.
Delphi Digital, a prominent institutional-grade market research provider, recently highlighted BTC’s price movements against its 200-week Moving Average. A chart revealed by Delphi Digital indicates that the BTC price has dropped below the 200-week MA for the first time in history.
— Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) January 1, 2023
The 200-week MA has historically served as a support for BTC in finding a price bottom. Market observers also noticed the pattern in the bottom phases of early 2015 and late 2018. A corresponding comeback always ensued. In addition, Delphi Digital noted that the prevalent year-long selloffs had pushed BTC into oversold territory on its 14-month Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Speaking on the asset’s terrible run in 2022, notable bitcoin influencer and investor Jason Williams pointed out that the BTC has never printed consecutive losing yearly candles since its inception. Basing his assertion on this metric, Williams forecasted a favorable 2023 for the asset.
A Case Against the General Consensus
Despite these bullish claims, veteran trader and analyst MAC_D believes it is too early to call the bottom. In a CryptoQuant quicktake post, MAC_D acknowledged that several indicators, including the MVRV Ratio and NUPL, indicate that BTC is undervalued, and the bottom is in.
Even so, he noted that these indicators are useful in determining the overall phase of the market, but not in establishing the detailed buying time. He proposed leveraging BTC’s Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) indicator to get an accurate picture of the asset’s position.
Citing a fellow CryptoQuant analyst, MAC_D pointed out that the bitcoin bottom is usually formed when the UTXOs in the asset’s profit and loss indicators cross. According to him, this happened in the past three halvings. However, he highlighted that the indicator does not currently show a cross; hence, BTC is not in undervalued territories.
MAC_D forecasted a further dip in BTC’s price from here. Similarly, Santiment also recently claimed that BTC will trade sideways or lower for the next 6 to 12 months. BTC currently trades at $16,735 as of press time, up 1.15% in the past 24 hours.