Popular Bloomberg’s ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas expresses skepticism about the potential launch of a spot-based exchange-traded fund for Solana in 2024 and 2025.
In a recent X post, Balchunas indicated that the application for the multiple Solana ETFs has been stuck in the second step of the approval process.
Nice flow chart showing how the Solana ETF filings never made it past Step 2 (the SEC failed to ack them) = DOA. So the exchanges withdrew 19b-4s altho the issuers' S-1s are still active. A snowball's chance in hell of approval unless there's change in leadership via @JSeyff pic.twitter.com/e8BNKT33KH
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 20, 2024
Solana ETF Application Stuck in Second Step of Approval
As detailed in a flow chart, the second step of the approval process requires the U.S. SEC to post CBOE’s 19b-4 filing for Solana ETF on the agency’s website. However, the agency has refused to post the 19b-4 document despite CBOE submitting the initial filing on July 8.
Consequently, Balchunas disclosed that the agency withdrew the 19b-4 filings for Solana ETFs following the SEC’s refusal to post them. He pointed out that the S-1 filings from potential Solana ETF issuers are still active.
Factor That Could Prompt Launch of Solana ETF
Based on the development, Balchunas said there is no chance that the SEC will approve a Solana ETF in 2024. He also speculated that the odds for a 2025 launch are almost close to zero if Kamala Harris wins.
Per Balchunas, the only way the SEC could approve the Solana ETF is when there is a change in leadership in the United States government. In particular, he believes the odds for a Solana ETF approval could soar if Donald Trump eventually becomes U.S. president.
This suggests that Trump could change the leadership of several federal agencies, including the SEC. During the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, Trump, who was among the speakers, promised to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office.
The thought of Gensler’s removal from the position triggered excitement among crypto enthusiasts, who consider him a stumbling block to the industry’s growth.
Despite Gensler’s key role in approving Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, there are speculations that he will not support the launch of spot-based funds for other cryptos.
Meanwhile, the SEC labeled Solana and other altcoins securities last year in its lawsuit against exchanges like Coinbase and Binance.
Although the SEC recently made a U-turn in its quest to give the securities tag to Solana in the Binance lawsuit, the agency still classifies SOL as a security in the Coinbase and Kraken cases.
Notably, the SEC is unlikely to approve the launch of a spot ETF for an asset deemed to be a security.
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