Following the debate on Sept. 10 between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Polymarket saw changes in odds for both candidates.
Trump’s odds of winning the upcoming presidential election dipped by 3%, from 52% to 49%, as the debate unfolded. At the same time, Harris’s odds increased from 46% to 49%, bringing the two candidates to a tie on Polymarket during the debate.
Donald Trump’s Odds Fluctuate
Trump’s sharp decline on the platform was attributed to his performance in the debate, where he faced tough scrutiny from Harris on key issues such as immigration, abortion, and foreign policy.
However, while the debate addressed important issues within the country, there was no mention of cryptocurrency by any of the candidates. This omission also occurred during the debate between Trump and president Joe Biden.
Although crypto did not emerge as a direct topic during the debate, broader discussions on economic policy still had an indirect effect on the sentiment of crypto investors, given how both candidates’ policies may impact the market.
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform where users wager on events, saw a surge in activity during the debate. By the end of the event, over $130 million had been wagered on Trump’s chances, while Harris’s odds attracted $114 million in bets.
Despite the initial fluctuation, Trump’s odds began recovering soon after the debate. By press time, his Polymarket odds stood at 50%, giving him a slight edge over Harris, whose odds remained at 49%.
Crypto in US Politics
The crypto community has kept a close eye on this election, particularly given Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrencies.
Throughout his campaign, Trump has promised to roll back existing anti-crypto regulations and establish the U.S. as a global leader in the digital asset space. Pundits believe that a Trump victory could significantly boost the price of Bitcoin, with analysts at Bernstein predicting it could soar to $90,000 by year’s end.
In contrast, Harris’s lack of a clear stance on crypto has raised concerns among investors. If she wins, Bernstein analysts fear that Bitcoin could drop as low as $30,000, particularly if she continues the regulatory stance of the Biden administration.
Meanwhile, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is convinced that SEC Chairperson Gary Gensler, who has continued his aggressive regulatory crackdown on the crypto industry, could still lose his job even if Harris wins.
The U.S. election has become one of the most heavily wagered events on Polymarket. Despite an overwhelming support received by Trump from the crypto community and the current administration’s aggressive stance on the industry, some leaders have not shied from endorsing Harris.
Uphold co-founder JP Theriot was one of the first crypto leaders to publicly endorse Harris. Interestingly, last week, Ripple co-founder and chairman Chris Larsen also publicly endorsed Harris despite the current administration’s historic legal battle with his company.
Disclaimer: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic’s opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
