A recent analysis has suggested that Dogecoin may underperform this bull cycle as its correlation with XRP’s 2021 fractal grows stronger.
Dogecoin started the bull cycle with a bang, posting substantial gains after the 2022 crypto winter. Spurred by strong bullish sentiments from its bromance with Elon Musk and Donald Trump’s November election win, the doggy-themed meme coin recorded its best-ever performance in 2024.
However, Dogecoin’s massive correction since the start of 2025 has given enthusiasts a reality check. The largest meme coin by market cap has retraced over 32% since January 1, with Avalanche (AVAX) the only asset with a worse performance in the top 15 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
Meanwhile, the correction has drawn correlation theories between Dogecoin’s current plight and XRP’s past cyclical performance. A recent analysis suggests the meme coin market leader may pull a 2021 XRP performance in this cycle.
Base for the Correlation Theory
For perspective, XRP literally missed the 2020/2021 bull season following dark regulatory clouds around its ecosystem. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Ripple in December 2020, scaring off bullish momentum for XRP despite a broader market upward trajectory.
With the litigation, the asset managed a mere 276% surge in 2021, starkly different from its 30,452% price explosion in the 2017 bull market. XRP peaked at $1.9839 during the cycle, a high it has trumped since December.
Meanwhile, analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT, has suggested that Dogecoin could experience similar price action. In a March 5 post, he highlighted a converging price action between the duo in different timelines.
XRP 2021 Fractal in Play?
Tony first asserted that Dogecoin could mirror XRP’s 2021 bull cycle in October before the meteoric broader market rally the next month. He shared that both charts showed a strong correlation, and DOGE may fully mirror the performance.
The analysis highlighted that XRP failed to sustainably trade above the 0.786 Fibonacci extension at $1.604 in 2021. Although the coin closed near the level in April, it corrected 35% the previous month.
Meanwhile, Tony quoted the analysis yesterday, reminding the crypto community that Dogecoin is still following his predicted price action closely. DOGE’s 160% surge in November took its price to the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $0.4198, with the asset peaking at $0.4846 in December.
However, the meme coin has corrected over 56% from the peak close to the 0.5 Fibonacci extension, exactly as XRP did in 2021. Following the growing correlation, the analyst insinuated that DOGE may have reached its cyclical top.
Has Dogecoin Peaked for the Cycle?
Meanwhile, the unpopular opinion contradicts the bullish outlook for Dogecoin based on earlier analysis. For context, market watcher Trader Tardigrade recently predicted an imminent DOGE rebound to $0.229, citing a forming dragonfly doji pattern.
Furthermore, he suggested more upsides, insisting the mean reversion theory could spur a surge to $10. Such an upside would push Dogecoin’s price by 4,619% from the current market price.
Moreover, the optimism emanating from the growing institutional interest in the meme coin could spur further upsides. Asset managers Bitwise and Grayscale recently filed for a Dogecoin ETF, and the SEC has acknowledged the latter’s application.
In the meantime, DOGE trades at $0.2109, down 5% since this month.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
