A new Cardano price risk model suggests that the bull market for ADA has not yet begun, despite early-stage bullish signs.
Cardano’s price action has shifted significantly over the past few days, pointing to a possible change in market sentiment. After beginning the week at approximately $0.70, ADA dropped to a local low of around $0.64 on May 6.
However, by May 8, the price had rebounded, surging towards the $0.72 level. In the last 24 hours, the token rose by 4.7%. Cardano’s weekly and 14-day gains stand at 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.
While this move reflects a strong short-term recovery, technical and on-chain indicators suggest that broader bullish activity could still be in the early stages.
Model Suggesting Favorable Entry Zone
An evaluation by Crypto Capital Venture founder Dan Gambardello used a custom risk model to interpret current ADA market conditions. According to this model, Cardano’s Long-Term Risk Score currently stands at 37, categorized as a “Moderate Buy.”
The system classifies risk levels from low to high, with lower values typically aligning with earlier phases of market cycles. For comparison, Cardano’s risk level approached the 50s and 60s during its 2017–2018 and 2020–2021 bull runs, both of which resulted in parabolic price movements.
The model also highlights these earlier bull phases with red zones on the Historical Risk Chart, underscoring periods of overextension. Cardano reached over $1 during the 2017 cycle and hit a peak above $3 in 2021.
In both cases, the risk level started in the 30s, consolidated, and then rose sharply, indicating momentum buildup.
Currently trading at around $0.71, ADA remains far below its 2021 all-time high of $3.09. Gambardello views this lower price point, combined with a moderate risk score, as historically favorable for entry. According to him, the Cardano bull market hasn’t begun yet, rather than being near its end.
Furthermore, compared with Ethereum, which has a lower Long Term Risk Score of 24, Gambardello sees ADA as better positioned structurally. The analyst has also emphasized the importance of preparing exit strategies.
Cardano Technical Barriers Remain Intact
Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez presented a 4-hour candlestick chart on X, illustrating a descending parallel channel that has guided ADA’s movement for the past two weeks. The chart shows that the price has respected the upper and lower channel boundaries.
Repeated attempts to break above the resistance at approximately $0.74 and $0.72 failed to confirm an upward breakout. Attempts to break support at $0.67 and again below $0.65 also failed.
The most recent resistance touch occurred near $0.71. Meanwhile, Martinez noted that ADA is preparing for a breakout. He added that a confirmed move above the upper channel line could trigger a rise toward the $0.80 level. For now, resistance remains firm, keeping the price within the established downtrend.
#Cardano $ADA looks poised for a breakout toward $0.80. But first, it needs to clear the upper boundary resistance of this channel. pic.twitter.com/47HpHQA3hs
— Ali (@ali_charts) May 8, 2025
On-Chain Metrics Reflect Network-Wide Growth
While price remains range-bound, data from IntoTheBlock reveals a notable increase in network activity. New addresses climbed by 4.79% in the past seven days, while active addresses rose by 11.99%.
Zero balance addresses, which often represent renewed user engagement or address reuse, increased by 12.26%. These figures suggest a growing user base and heightened interest in Cardano’s ecosystem, which typically precedes bullish runs.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
