What could XRP price rise to if its network-native burn mechanism creates a digital scarcity similar to the Bitcoin halving?
For context, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) features a built-in burn feature that permanently destroys tokens, but the original architects never designed it to boost scarcity. Instead, its purpose is to stop spam by charging a small fee for every transaction and burning that fee.
XRPL Burn Mechanism and Bitcoin Halving
Since XRPL went live in 2012, the network has burned just over 14.18 million XRP. This figure makes up only 0.014% of the total supply of 100 billion and about 0.023% of the current circulating supply of 59.48 billion.
On average, the network currently burns around 2,700 XRP a day, which adds up to nearly one million a year. At this pace, it would take about a thousand years to burn just one billion XRP, or only 1% of the total supply.
This slow rate of burn leads to an interesting question: what if XRPL worked more like Bitcoin’s halving? For context, every four years, Bitcoin cuts the number of new coins entering circulation in half.
The steady reduction in supply has historically fueled major price rallies. The most recent Bitcoin halving in April lowered the daily block reward to 3.125 BTC and again showed how supply shocks influence Bitcoin’s price.
If XRP had a similar mechanism that introduced real scarcity, what could that mean for its value? To find out, we asked Google’s AI chatbot, Gemini. Currently, XRP changes hands at $2.90 with a market cap of around $182 billion.
XRP Price if Burns Create Digital Scarcity
In its response, Gemini noted that if XRP went through a halving that cut its circulating supply to roughly 30 billion while the market cap stayed the same, the price could rise to about $6.12.
However, Gemini explained that this scenario represents the most cautious outcome since it assumes demand stays flat and only supply changes.
The chatbot pointed out that Bitcoin’s halvings typically do far more than simply double the price. Specifically, each event has triggered fresh demand and speculation, often pushing Bitcoin’s market value two to four times higher within a year.
Gemini used this history as a guide to present a more optimistic case for XRP. If the market cap grew 2.5 times to about $455 billion and the supply halves, the price could reach around $15.30. According to Gemini, this figure is still conservative compared to Bitcoin’s explosive post-halving rallies.
Nonetheless, Gemini stressed that such a system is very unlikely for XRP. Unlike Bitcoin, XRP does not rely on mining or new coin issuance. The entire 100 billion supply already exists, with Ripple holding a large share in escrow and releasing it in a steady, predictable schedule.
The current burn feature plays a practical role in protecting the network rather than serving as a price booster. For XRPL to adopt halving events, developers would need to change the core design of the system completely, something Gemini said is highly improbable.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
