A market commentator has suggested that an XRP rally to $50 could materialize as early as December 2025 if the U.S. SEC approves XRP ETFs by October.
For context, in October 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) faces deadlines to decide on several XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. If the regulator signs off, spot XRP ETFs could debut in the fourth quarter.
XRP ETFs Could Attract Billions in Inflows
Analysts believe this could attract institutional money, with some estimates suggesting inflows of billions of dollars in just a few weeks. This is because when Bitcoin ETFs arrived, they drew billions almost overnight. Interestingly, Ethereum ETFs followed the same pattern.
Citing these developments, Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, expects XRP ETFs to follow suit, with at least $5 billion flowing in during the first month, potentially outperforming the Ethereum products. However, it remains unclear how these inflows will impact the XRP price, which currently stands at $3.00.
In a recent analysis, XRP community figure Pumpius recently presented a case for why XRP could reach $50 if ETFs launch in October. He pointed out that the filings are not speculation.
The Case for Capital Inflows
Specifically, at least six to seven major players, including Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and 21Shares, have already submitted official applications or amendments. Many of these filings came up right after Ripple’s legal victory over the SEC.
Notably, the timing of these applications aligns with an October decision window. Pumpius noted that the SEC must rule on filings such as WisdomTree’s by then, and because several issuers fall into the same review batch, approvals or denials could hit at once.
If the agency gives the green light, multiple ETFs could roll out in Q4. Pumpius added that regulatory momentum makes this outcome more likely. The SEC has started publishing guidance for crypto ETFs, while exchanges are creating common listing standards. Together, these steps make it easier to approve products beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Pumpius then highlighted McClurg’s estimates that $5 billion or more could move into XRP ETFs in the first month. Notably, this demand would collide with XRP’s unique supply structure. Roughly 35 to 36 billion XRP remain in escrow, while much of the supply in circulation sits with large holders and exchanges.
In other words, the actual amount of XRP available to trade is much smaller than headline figures suggest. A sudden wave of institutional buying against this thin float could force sharp price jumps.
Pumpius also pointed to the derivatives markets. This year, both CME and Coinbase Derivatives launched regulated XRP futures, following the same pattern Bitcoin and Ethereum set before their ETFs. This created deeper liquidity and gave institutions another way to gain exposure, making the ETF runway even stronger.
How XRP Rally to $50 Could Materialize
He then calculated that if ETFs attract $5 to $8 billion in inflows by late November and another $5 to $10 billion arrives through futures arbitrage, investment advisor rebalancing, and corporate treasury allocations, XRP could face $10 to $18 billion in net demand by year-end.
7/ Scenario math (illustrative, not advice):
•Assume $5–8B net spot ETF inflows by late Nov (multiple issuers).
•Add basis/futures arb + RIA rebalancing + corporate treasuries: another $5–10B potential by year-end.
•Against a circulating base ~59B XRP (CMC), with meaningful…— Pumpius (@pumpius) September 3, 2025
With a circulating supply of about 59 billion tokens, much of it locked or illiquid, these inflows could create extreme price pressure. Assets with larger and more liquid markets have posted multiple-fold gains under similar conditions, which means XRP could see a large push.
According to Pumpius, the $50 rally would rely on compounding forces. Specifically, the ETF approval would finally unlock sidelined money from pensions, wealth managers, and institutions that need compliant exposure.
Once inflows start, rising prices push ETF assets under management higher, which then draws in more money. That feedback loop, alongside year-end positioning and investor FOMO, could drive a powerful rally.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
