A well-known market commentator has shared three reasons XRP failed to deliver the pump many expected in 2025.
XRP entered 2025 with huge expectations after a remarkable stretch in late 2024. Specifically, the price jumped 283% following Donald Trump’s election win in November and added another 52% across December 2024 and January 2025.
XRP Has Not Met 2025 Market Expectations
By January, XRP touched $3.4, and many analysts started calling for a run toward $10, $15, and even $27. However, instead of pushing higher, XRP lost momentum this year. It now trades around $2.08, having gained only 0.43% throughout 2025 as of Dec. 8.
As optimism fades, market commentator Zach Rector recently explained what happened in a video commentary, where he shared why XRP didn’t deliver the breakout that many expected this year.
He stressed that he based his earlier projections on real research, not hype, maintaining that he still believes XRP can reach his long-term targets. However, he now expects the timeline to push into 2026 because several major events pushed everything back.
The SEC’s Lawsuit Against Ripple
According to Rector, the first issue that held XRP back in 2025 was the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple. He explained that the case dragged on far longer than anyone expected and finally ended in August 2025.
Notably, this date marked the court clerk’s certification confirming that both the SEC and Ripple dropped their appeals. Rector pointed out that this delay happened only because Gary Gensler, the outgoing SEC chair, filed a last-minute appeal just five days before his removal from the agency.
According to him, this move kept the case alive and extended it deep into 2025, even though most investors believed it would end in 2021 or 2022. He argued that this legal issue held XRP back for most of the year.
Late Arrival of XRP ETFs
He then moved to the second major factor: the late arrival of XRP spot ETFs. He explained that no issuer could launch an ETF while the lawsuit remained active. Once the court closed the case, six of the seven issuers immediately updated their S-1 filings to reflect the new legal clarity.
Despite the progress, the ETFs still didn’t go live until November 2025. Rector pointed out that the government shutdown added another delay and forced issuers to rely on a workaround that allowed the 20-day countdown to start even while the SEC operated with limited capacity. He believes this pushed ETF inflows too far into the year to support the type of major rally many expected.
Meanwhile, Rector insisted that he never abandoned his price targets. He still expects XRP to push toward $7, fall back before reaching $10, and then make a move toward the $15–$20 range. However, he simply moved these expectations into 2026 once the lawsuit and ETF delays disrupted the original timeline.
Clarity Act Delay
The market pundit then turned to the third and biggest roadblock: Washington’s inability to pass the Clarity Act, the major crypto market structure bill.
Rector said banks and institutions refuse to commit fully to assets like XRP without clear rules on token classifications, custody requirements, securities laws, and platform operations.
He noted that institutions outside the U.S. already use Ripple’s on-demand liquidity system to settle tens of billions of dollars in payments each year, but American institutions continue to wait for a legal framework before moving forward.
Rector pointed out that three unresolved issues have stalled the bill. First, Lawmakers still disagree over how to handle stablecoin yield restrictions. Secondly, some politicians want strict conflict-of-interest rules that would limit business activity by the president’s family. And lastly, certain traditional financial firms want to regulate DeFi developers as if they ran centralized platforms.
Rector said these disagreements carry major consequences and will likely keep the bill on hold until early 2026, a timeline that several other industry figures also expect.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
