Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, maintains a long-term bullish view on Bitcoin but says he will hold off investing until U.S. monetary policy loosens.
Key Points
- Hayes said he would not invest in Bitcoin right now, citing geopolitical uncertainty.
- Instead, the BitMEX co-founder plans to buy Bitcoin once the U.S. Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy.
- Hayes warned that a prolonged US-Iran war could push Bitcoin below $60,000, potentially triggering liquidations.
- Despite short-term caution, he maintains a $250,000 Bitcoin price prediction by 2026.
Hayes Advises Patience Amid Market Uncertainty
In a recent episode of the Coin Stories podcast, Hayes explained that he would not invest a single dollar in Bitcoin at the current moment. He emphasized a cautious approach, citing ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, as a potential source of market instability.
Hayes suggested that these tensions might force the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase liquidity, which could ultimately impact both equities and cryptocurrencies. He made it clear that his investment decisions would closely follow central bank actions rather than short-term market movements.
Timing Bitcoin Purchases Around Monetary Policy
Hayes stressed that money printing, rather than war itself, is the key driver for Bitcoin’s long-term growth. He indicated he would start acquiring Bitcoin once central banks begin easing monetary policy and expanding liquidity.
While taking a cautious stance in the short term, Hayes reaffirmed his optimism for the cryptocurrency. Specifically, he believes Bitcoin will eventually surpass $100,000, suggesting the current period of lower prices may be temporary.
Current Market Snapshot
As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading near $69,609, down 45% from its October 2025 high of $126,080.
Hayes warned that prolonged geopolitical tensions could push prices below $60,000, potentially creating a cascade of liquidations. Bitcoin had briefly dipped to this level on February 6, 2026, before recovering modestly.
This snapshot illustrates the volatility Hayes is closely monitoring, reinforcing his decision to wait for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve before investing.
Long-Term Price Predictions Remain Strong
Despite near-term uncertainties, Hayes remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory and projects it will reach $500K by 2026. He reiterated this forecast earlier this month, showing continued faith in the cryptocurrency’s growth potential.
Additionally, other market analysts, including Michaël van de Poppe, have highlighted that a strong performance in the Nasdaq could provide additional support for Bitcoin and altcoins, suggesting positive momentum may be on the horizon.
Navigating Volatility with a Strategic Approach
Hayes’ perspective balances optimism with prudence. While he anticipates substantial long-term gains, he underscores that investors should remain attentive to central bank policies and global geopolitical developments.
For now, Hayes recommends a careful wait-and-see approach, allowing monetary policy signals to guide strategic Bitcoin investments. His approach highlights the importance of timing and macroeconomic context in navigating the cryptocurrency market.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
