Analyst Vincent Van Code warns XRP enthusiasts against expecting a major December 31 price pump, advising a break during the holiday season.

As the year draws to a close, the XRP community is rife with speculation about potential price movements. Many XRP enthusiasts are anticipating a major event today that could trigger a significant price “pump” for the digital asset.

However, Vincent Van Code, a software engineer and voice in the community, has cautioned against putting too much faith in these predictions.

Low Probability of a Major Event

In a tweet shared with his followers, Van Code expressed skepticism about the chances of a “big” XRP rally on December 31. According to him, the likelihood of such an event is extremely low—roughly 1 in 1,000. 

Moreover, he emphasized that there is little real evidence to suggest that a significant market move is imminent. Accordingly, he urged community members to consider the risks before making investment decisions based on the speculations.

“Is this gamble worth it?” Van Code asked, pointing out the importance of being grounded in reality rather than chasing speculative trends without strong backing.

Indeed, today, the last day of the year, the crypto market is largely bearish, and XRP is among the victims. XRP has dipped by 2% today, struggling to maintain the $2 price. It even briefly touched $1.9 before stabilizing back at $2.

Holiday Season and Limited Market Activity

Furthermore, Van Code reminded the XRP community that it is the holiday season when many industry professionals are taking a break. “Who’s actually working?” he asked. 

He suggested that key figures and market movers are likely spending time with their families and enjoying their hard-earned success rather than planning large-scale market manipulation.

Meanwhile, Van Code acknowledged the fun of speculating about riddles and puzzles within the XRP community. He appreciates the mysteries and speculative price forecasts but urges his followers not to bet on them as if they were certain events.

Advice to Unwind and Reflect

In his final point, Van Code recommended using the end of the year to unwind, regroup, and even take the opportunity to learn something new. “Take a break,” he encouraged, “there’s little happening now.”

XRP continues to struggle around the $2 price as 2024 winds down, but analysts believe the token is one of the most promising crypto assets for 2025.

Last night, XRP dipped below the $2 mark for the third time in December, testing lows of $1.995 on Binance before bouncing back.

Although XRP’s ongoing price action has been discouraging, analysts like Ali Martinez believe its chart patterns are among the most bullish in crypto. He has cited numerous technical formations to support this view.

XRP Bollinger Bands Squeezing

In a recent commentary, Martinez pointed out that the Bollinger Bands are tightening on XRP’s daily chart. He emphasized that this formation signals an imminent significant price movement.

Notably, other market analysts have also observed this BB squeeze on XRP’s chart across different timeframes. They agree the setup is promising and could propel XRP to a new all-time high.

XRP Forming Compelling Pattern for $11 Rally

Meanwhile, in a follow-up update, Martinez presented another chart that paints a compelling picture of a potential surge to $11.

The chart shows that after a powerful rally in November that catapulted XRP to new heights, the price entered a period of consolidation. Specifically, it depicted XRP trading within a tightening range, where buyers and sellers engage in a tug-of-war, forming a bullish pennant.

This consolidation phase, marked by diminishing volatility, has historically preceded explosive moves. When observing XRP on the 4-hour chart, this setup repeated at least three times between November and the first week of December. Each instance resulted in a significant breakout for XRP.

Martinez had pointed out this formation in a separate update two weeks ago, suggesting a short-term target of $4 upon a breakout.

Now, XRP is hovering around $2.04, locked within narrowing trendlines as the market awaits a decisive move. Martinez expects a 440% rally to $11 in XRP’s next leg up.

With the ongoing bearish performance, market commentators are urging XRP holders to remain patient.

Pundits like Bobby A assured investors that the asset has not broken out of a seven-year downtrend only to stop just short of reaching a new peak. He stressed that the ongoing pattern is temporary and consistent with historical moves.

Whales Positioning for XRP’s Next Move

Notably, while retail investors are increasingly frustrated with the continuous downturn in XRP, whales continue to load up on the asset, positioning for its next move. For instance, on December 25, XRP whale holdings increased by 60 million XRP.

A market analyst points to quick exhaustion in XRP price rallies as a reason behind the constant antagonism the altcoin faces.

While XRP has delivered impressive gains during specific periods over the past 11 years, many view its inconsistent performance as reasons for its unpopularity. Amid the ongoing consolidation, analyst IncomeSharks recently discussed why the altcoin often finds itself under criticism.  

XRP’s Brief Rallies

In an analysis this morning, IncomeSharks highlighted XRP’s recurring pattern of brief rallies, often lasting four to five weeks before leading to sharp corrections. 

His initial commentary came up on Dec. 3, in which he pointed out that the latest XRP rally had lasted just over four weeks. The rally, which began on Nov. 5, saw XRP surge from $0.5031 to a seven-year high of $2.9 by Dec. 3. This marked a 476% gain. However, the uptrend stalled at $2.9, and a pullback followed shortly.

By Dec. 9, XRP had continued to correct. At this point, IncomeSharks noted that XRP’s rally had just barely extended to five weeks, breaking its historical trend of four-week surges. 

$XRP – In over 6 years it's only ever had a rally last 4 weeks. This time it just barely made it 5 weeks. Now to see if it can finally hold a rally for once. Bias is thinking this time will be different. https://t.co/KGcAD8tuto pic.twitter.com/qXrQn5LBOu

— IncomeSharks (@IncomeSharks) December 9, 2024

He questioned whether the asset could sustain its momentum and suggested that its consistent inability to maintain rallies contributed to its negative reputation among long-term investors.  

However, XRP’s pullback was not isolated. Notably, the decline coincided with a broader market correction. Nonetheless, Bitcoin was able to rebound mid-month to reach a new all-time high of $108,364 on Dec. 17. Despite Bitcoin’s push, XRP failed to retest the $2.9 peak, with the bears attempting to push it below $2. 

Not Attractive to Long-Term Investors

In his latest disclosure today, IncomeSharks summarized his critique of XRP, stating that its pattern of four-to-five-week rallies every few years is not a bullish characteristic. 

$XRP – If you didn't hate this token before you maybe can understand why it's so disliked by people that have been around to see how it behaves. Pump for 4 to 5 weeks every 3 years isn't a bullish thing. Great trade if you caught the pump and realized profits. https://t.co/E5zwx9wYCf pic.twitter.com/Nwjy006kvG

— IncomeSharks (@IncomeSharks) December 31, 2024

He argued that while XRP presents opportunities for short-term traders, it fails to provide consistent returns for long-term investors. His accompanying chart suggested that this pattern of brief rallies occurred from late 2017 to January 2018 and from late March to late April 2021.

However, IncomeSharks failed to observe that in 2017, XRP’s bull run lasted for more than four weeks. XRP first rallied from $0.00570 in February to $0.0615 in March 2017, then consolidated before another four-week rally pushed it to $0.3988 in May 2017. After another pullback, XRP rallied again to $3.31 in January 2018.

Ripple Escrow Practices

Meanwhile, in addition to its brief rallies, XRP faces criticism for Ripple’s monthly sales of XRP from escrow accounts. Ripple, which controls nearly 40 billion XRP in escrow, releases 200 million tokens every month. 

Some critics claim these regular sales suppress XRP’s price and hinder its growth, contributing to the perceived underperformance. However, Ripple execs have consistently refuted these claims.

A notable market analyst believes XRP could slump below the $1 price mark before recording a recovery pump to a two-digit ultimate target.

XRP is currently battling bearish pressure. The token has experienced a 9% loss over the past 24 hours but remains above $2. With the year drawing to a close, XRP is on track to close its first-ever yearly candle above $2, a major milestone in its history. 

However, market experts predict a volatile path ahead, with sharp corrections potentially setting up the necessary conditions for a massive rally.  

A well-known analyst, “Guy on the Earth,” recently presented a similar stance. He compared the current market conditions to previous bull cycles, particularly the 2013 and 2017 runs. 

Historically, XRP’s bull markets have seen extensive consolidation periods before explosive rallies. The 2013 cycle featured a four-year consolidation followed by a massive price surge, while the 2017 cycle extended gains by 1,100% within months.  

The analyst suggests that as the crypto market matures, volatility will decrease, leading to smaller percentage gains. According to him, a repeat of the 2017 extension could theoretically push XRP to $177, but such a target is unlikely during this cycle. 

Instead, he set a more realistic maximum target for this bull run of $27. Interestingly, another prominent market watcher, EGRAG Crypto, has consistently predicted $27 as his target for XRP, citing different pathways. Meanwhile, “Guy on the Earth” believes the target is achievable by January 2026.  

XRP Short-Term Targets

In the short term, the analyst predicts further downside for XRP. He expects the token to test support levels between $1.70 and $1.80 in the coming days. This correction aligns with a potential Bitcoin drop to around $80,000, which could pull XRP lower. For context, BTC currently trades for $92,550.

If the $1.70 and $1.80 support levels fail, XRP could fall to $1.33 or even $0.87, aligning with Fibonacci levels from historical patterns. Notably, these levels represent prime opportunities to enter long positions. The analyst views $1.70 as a solid entry point, with $1.33 being an even stronger buying zone.  

For context, such price action would be consistent with XRP’s historical behavior of triangle consolidations preceding major upward movements. However, the analyst thinks this consolidation phase could be longer and deeper than many expect, creating anxiety.  

Long-Term Price Targets

Despite the near-term bearish outlook, the analyst maintains a bullish perspective for XRP’s long-term trajectory. He identifies $13 as a minimum target for the current cycle, with a blow-off top potentially pushing the price to $27 by January 2026.  

For profit-taking, the analyst suggests investors should leverage a tiered strategy. He advises selling 10% of holdings when XRP reaches $5.30, 20% at $8.50, and another 20% at $13. Investors can then reserve the remaining 50% of holdings for a potential peak at $27.

Notably, XRP currently changes hands at $2.02, down 3.53% over the past 24 hours as the bulls struggle to maintain a $2 price before the close of the year. From here, XRP would need to spike by 543% to claim the minimum target of $13 and by 1,236% to reach $27.