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Bitcoin Shows Mixed Signals on US Election Eve Amid Whale Accumulation and LTH Sales

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Bitcoin is again in a very decisive position, showing both promising and cautionary signals on the eve of the U.S. election. 

Recall that a surge last week saw Bitcoin jump to $73,600 on Oct. 29, marking a seven-month peak before a swift correction pulled it down below $68,000 by Nov. 3. Despite the decline, major market indicators point to ongoing interest and potential volatility.

Bitcoin Market Healthy Amid Whale Buys and LTH Sales

In the derivatives markets, there are encouraging signs of stability. Traders are holding their positions, steering clear of excessive leverage, which suggests a healthier, more sustainable trajectory for Bitcoin compared to past speculative booms. 

A notable metric, the 25% delta skew, remains stable. This figure typically rises sharply above 7% in times of market panic, indicating that, as of now, options traders are not bracing for a major price drop.

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Meanwhile, activity from large Bitcoin Whales continues to shape market sentiment. According to CryptoQuant data, whale holdings have risen, increasing from 3.889 million BTC on Oct. 20 to 3.915 million BTC currently. This uptick suggests confidence even amid recent market fluctuations.

Bitcoin 1 Year Change in Whales Holdings of Bitcoin
Bitcoin Whale Holdings | CryptoQuant

While whales accumulate, long-term holders (LTHs) are taking a different approach, showing a noticeable uptick in selling. Over the past week, LTHs have offloaded around 177,617 BTC, according to CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun. 

This behavior syncs with a historical trend where LTHs tend to sell when prices rise, possibly hinting that these holders see current price levels as an opportunity to realize profits. 

This selling trend mirrors patterns observed in previous bull markets, including those in 2018, 2021, and 2024, where long-term holders distributed more Bitcoin during price rallies.

Macro Factors

Bitcoin’s recent price movements have also closely followed trends in the S&P 500, suggesting that macro factors are influencing its price. The upcoming U.S. elections and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve—forecasted at 0.25%—are possible catalysts for further market shifts. 

A Federal Reserve rate cut could boost Bitcoin’s appeal, as lower interest rates often lead to a search for alternative stores of value, driving investment in assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Shows Mixed Signals as US Election Looms

Adding to the anticipation, some market experts predict Bitcoin could reach new highs following the U.S. elections. Analyst Moustache noted on X that Bitcoin historically has surged after past elections in 2012, 2016, and 2020, speculating that 2024 could follow a similar trend.

However, as reported earlier today by The Crypto Basic, Aksel Kibar, a Chartered Market Technician, highlighted a potentially bearish formation in Bitcoin’s chart, referred to as a Gravestone Doji. 

If confirmed, this pattern could signal a further pullback. Whether this pattern materializes depends on how Bitcoin closes the current week. A weak close would confirm the doji, but a strong finish could invalidate it, opening the door for further gains.

Despite recent price volatility, some analysts believe Bitcoin is building a solid base around the $69,000 level. They argue that this correction is part of a healthy market cycle and could serve as a foundation for a more significant breakout. 

The idea is that this consolidation phase may prime Bitcoin to surpass its all-time high if buying pressure resumes. BTC currently changes hands at $68,913 as of press time, looking to reclaim and sustain the $69,000 territory before the U.S. presidential election tomorrow.

Bitcoin Not a Threat to US Dollar, Donald Trump Asserts 

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Former United States President and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump believes Bitcoin does not pose a threat to the dollar. 

This sparked widespread optimism in the community on the asset’s mainstream adoption. The crypto market leader has grown into a hedge against inflation for many investors as macroeconomic factors cripple the hold on fiat currencies. 

Days leading up to the U.S. Presidential elections have seen candidate campaigns on crypto circulate social media spaces. 

Trump: Bitcoin Does Not Threaten the Dollar

A speech made by Trump at the Bitcoin Conference 2024 has regained popularity with users pointing to the growth over the years. At the conference, Trump noted that Bitcoin is not threatening the dollar as claimed by many policy makers. 

Over the years, global authorities have criticized the top digital asset for affecting fiscal policies and driving investment abroad. 

This has also coincided with the creation of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in several jurisdictions. The global adoption of Bitcoin and the surge in the decentralized finance (DeFi) scene rattled central banks with several holders moving away from fiat.

Meanwhile, according to the Republican candidate, the behavior of the current US government is what poses a threat to the dollar. 

This is due to increased spending coupled with inflation and a rising debt profile. As a result, several crypto enthusiasts have turned to Bitcoin as a haven to preserve currency values. 

“Bitcoin is not threatening the dollar, the behavior of the current US President is threatening the dollar,” Trump argued.

Recently, US billionaire, Paul Tudor hinted that all roads lead to inflation, adding that he is going long on Bitcoin and gold. 

Trump to Fire Gary Gensler 

Another part of the widely circulated clip shows Trump promising to fire Gary Gensler if he wins the upcoming elections. 

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman has become less popular among crypto enthusiasts following a series of tough regulatory decisions. First, the US space lacks clear rules, creating a gap in the system. This drives developers to other rule-making jurisdictions. 

The Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) rules have attracted participants to Europe with executives hailing the landmark law. 

Secondly, the Gensler-led SEC has filed a plethora of lawsuits against firms and project leaders in the United States. Tight regulation creates fear in the market and further bolster selling pressure. This tanks asset prices and limits investment in the sector. 

Expert Says Shiba Inu 89,030% Surge Could Repeat Sooner Than Expected

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Pseudonymous pundit Master Kenobi has lauded Shiba Inu’s perfectly crafted technology, stating that the chances of finding such caliber projects are one in a few hundred times.

In a November 3 post, Kenobi insisted that Shiba Inu has been dynamic and continues to outperform his expectations in its four years of existence. He stressed how hard it is to come by a project with similar exceptional innovation.

Furthermore, Kenobi lauded Shiba Inu’s pseudonymous founders, who launched the meme coin with a “meticulously planned and engineered” purpose that is rare among today’s projects.

He noted that the precision of creation and capital deployment shows that the creators fully understood blockchain technology and how to use it to effectively create financial freedom.

Analyst Says Shiba Inu Surge Will Happen Soon

While applauding Shiba Inu’s rare technology, Kenobi asserted that he sees a repeat of the famous January 2021 rally. For context, SHIB resumed an explosive rally that month, with the bullish momentum driving the meme coin to extraordinary highs.

Shiba Inu surged 89,030% in 280 days from January 25, 2021, peaking at its current all-time of $0.0000845 nine months later. The explosive run pushed SHIB into the top 10 ranking by market cap, with the token accruing a $38 billion valuation.

Kenobi expects a similar surge in the Shiba Inu price, projecting it might “even happen sooner.” While he does not present a particular price target, he remains bullish on an uptrend. However, in the unlikely event that the 89,030% rally fully repeats, this will push the second-largest meme coin to $0.0149 and its market cap to $8.8 trillion.

Furthermore, the market expert asserted that Shiba Inu surpassing the $100 billion market cap by the end of this bull cycle is a possibility. He added that the meme coin will reenter the top 10 crypto market cap ranking, projecting at least a two-step move from 12th place in the current market.

Notably, a prediction of a possible SHIB surge to above $0.01 is not new. Shiba Inu’s marketing lead, Lucie, asserted that the leading meme coin will eventually reach the price mark sometime in the future.

Analyst Asserts Shiba Inu Will Rival Dogecoin

Meanwhile, Kenobi has predicted a hotly contested top slot in the meme coin sector this bull cycle. The analyst believes that Shiba Inu is a real competitor for Dogecoin and expects a keenly-competed battle.

However, the pseudonymous expert insisted that the chances of Shiba Inu outperforming Dogecoin in this bull cycle remain even. He asserted that Shiba Inu has an equal chance of outdoing Dogecoin.

In the meantime, Dogecoin’s 38% upsurge in the past 30 days has seen it occupy the 8th slot, with a market cap of $22 billion, more than double Shiba Inu’s current valuation. SHIB has corrected 6.65% in the same timeframe, capped at $9.8 billion.

Peter Brandt Projects $97K Bitcoin Target Following Major Triangle Breakout

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Veteran trader Peter Brandt has noted that Bitcoin recently broke out of a triangle pattern, highlighting a bullish prospect with a target above $97,000.

Despite experiencing a notable price dip below the $68,500 mark, Bitcoin’s broader bullish structure, which has been forming since September, remains intact. In a recent analysis, Brandt identified potential targets for Bitcoin as the market progresses.

For context, between March and September 2024, Bitcoin’s price chart revealed an inverted triangle pattern characterized by converging trendlines of lower highs and higher lows. This often indicates consolidation before a breakout.

Bitcoin Breaks Out 

Remarkably, a market chart shared by Brandt shows that Bitcoin recently broke out of this triangle pattern precisely last week when Bitcoin surpassed $73,500. This move above the upper trendline resistance suggests a significant bullish shift.

Following this breakout, Bitcoin signals a potential upward trend, with a target price of $97,056, according to Brandt. However, the seasoned analyst emphasized that specific criteria must be met to validate a breakout.

 

Criteria for Confirming Breakouts

Brandt has pointed out that not all breaches of trendlines qualify as genuine breakouts. According to his analysis, price action must satisfy defined conditions. Specifically, on the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price must close above $76,000 to confirm the breakout above the March high.

Brandt noted that this confirmation should occur at midnight on Sunday to validate the move. However, on Sunday, November 3, Bitcoin did not achieve a daily close above $76,000, as required to confirm the breakout above the March high. Instead, Bitcoin’s price experienced a slight decline, closing at $68,741 after it had dipped to $67,482.

Meanwhile, Brandt noted that diagonal patterns with slanted boundary lines can be tricky to trade, as slight touches to the boundary lines do not automatically constitute breakouts. While Bitcoin’s recent breakout is promising, Brandt observed that additional effort is required to maintain bullish momentum.

Brandt Bitcoin Price Targets from Previous Analyses

In his previous market assessments, Brandt outlined three distinct price targets for Bitcoin based on various analytical approaches. He first noted a target of $94,000, stemming from an inverted expanding triangle pattern analyzed on a semi-logarithmic scale.

Initially perceived as bearish, this pattern has shifted to present a bullish outlook. The $94,000 projection is derived by measuring the triangle’s height and applying it from the breakout level. If Bitcoin holds above $70,000, this price could serve as a new support zone.

The second, more ambitious target is $230,000. This was calculated by projecting price movements from the low in November 2022 to the high in March 2024 and then applying that range starting from August 2024.

Although this outlook is considered more aspirational, Brandt highlighted that focusing on one target at a time is best. His third target is $160,000, based on the recurring cycle symmetry in Bitcoin’s historical market patterns.

Will Toncoin (TON) Hold at $4.65 Trigger a Triangle Breakout?

Despite a bearish trend, the potential for a bullish reversal is resurfacing near the $4.65 support zone for Toncoin. Could this lead to a breakout rally towards $6?

With increased bearish pressure, Toncoin has returned to the crucial support zone around $4.65. As bearish dominance suggests a negative crossover in the EMAs, the risk of a breakdown rises.

Will Toncoin bounce back from the $4.65 support zone to fly past the overhead trendline? Let’s find out. 

Toncoin Nears Triangle Breakout

The Toncoin is maintaining a declining trend in the daily chart and is under immense bearish pressure. However, despite the pressure, the crucial support at $4.65 holds the TON price firm. 

The demand zone at $4.65 coincides with a descending triangle pattern. The increasing bearish influence has resulted in a death cross event between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs.

Toncoin Price Chart
Toncoin Price Chart

Moreover, the 100-day and 200-day EMAs are approaching a bearish crossover. This adds to the bearish signals, with the MACD and signal lines aligned in the negative territory, showing a gradual trend in negative histograms.

Overall, the daily chart for Toncoin presents an extremely bearish outlook. However, the underlying dynamics at the critical support level of $4.65 suggest the possibility of a bullish comeback.

The daily RSI line indicates a bearish divergence as Toncoin finds support near the demand zone. With an intraday gain of 0.41%, Toncoin is currently trading at $4.84, hinting at a potential bullish recovery.

Will Toncoin Reclaim $6?

As Toncoin approaches the apex of the descending triangle pattern, the likelihood of a high-momentum move increases. If broader market conditions improve after the U.S. elections, Toncoin could surpass the 20-day EMA, which aligns with the overhead resistance trendline.

According to price action analysis, a triangle breakout rally may encounter resistance near the $5.33 level before reaching the psychological mark of $6. A successful breakout could further enhance the chances of Toncoin climbing to $8.18.

On the flip side, a breakdown below $4.65 would test the $4.34 level before potentially reaching the psychological support at $4.00.

KuCoin Token Eyes $9 Break as Double Bottom Signals Reversal

With a double bottom reversal forming, will KuCoin (KCS) cross the $9 mark and make a jump to $10 this November?

The crypto market expects to witness a “Moonvember” rally, but uncertainties are increasing amid the U.S. Presidential elections. In this context, KCS, the native token of the KuCoin exchange, appears to be on the brink of a breakout rally. 

As the tug-of-war between bulls and bears continues, centralized exchange (CEX) tokens like KCS may benefit from increased speculation. This uptick is driven by rising volumes on exchanges, which boosts demand for their native tokens. So, will the KuCoin token (KCS) experience a surge in this uncertain market? Let’s explore.

KuCoin Token (KCS) Price Analysis

The KCS price is showing signs of recovery on the 4-hour chart and is close to surpassing the $9 mark. After starting its recovery rally in early October from $7.37, the KuCoin token is currently trading at $8.97, marking a significant surge of 21.58%.

KuCoin Token (KCS) Price Chart
KuCoin Token (KCS) Price Chart

The recovery rally peaked at $9.37 but experienced a quick reversal on Wednesday due to broader market influences. Currently, the price is in a sideways trend between two crucial volume zones at $8.97 and the $9 psychological mark, indicating a consolidation phase.

Despite this sideways trend, underlying bullish support suggests the formation of a double-bottom pattern. The neckline of this bullish pattern aligns with the $9 psychological mark. Additionally, the trend-based Fibonacci analysis indicates that the 23.60% Fibonacci level coincides with the $9 mark.

Will KuCoin Token Reach $10?

The ongoing recovery as it challenges the $9 mark will generate a strong buying signal if it surpasses this high supply zone. Supporting this bullish breakout, the MACD and signal lines have shown a bullish crossover, accompanied by an increase in positive histogram values.

As the broader crypto market anticipates a “Moonvember” rally, a breakout for the KuCoin token is likely to reach the 50% Fibonacci level at $9.51. In the longer term, the $10 psychological mark could be a realistic target by the end of the month.

Conversely, if the $8.75 support zone fails to hold, potential support levels for the KuCoin token may drop to $8.60 and $8.35.

Shiba Inu Team Says SHIB is Only ERC-20 Token in Top 10, Loyal to Ethereum Since Day One

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Kaal Dhairya, a top developer in the Shiba Inu ecosystem, suggests that SHIB is the number one ERC-20 token on the Ethereum blockchain. 

According to Dhairya, Shiba Inu is the top-ranked ERC-20 token on Ethereum in terms of market capitalization. The developer excluded stablecoins like USDC and USDT, which are also ERC-20 tokens, due to their presence on multiple blockchains. 

However, Dhairya contended that Shiba Inu has remained loyal to Ethereum since its launch, attracting significant value to the blockchain. The accompanying chart shows that Shiba Inu had a valuation of $10.39 billion.

Buterin Says Dogecoin Deserves to be Second Most Valuable Crypto 

The Shiba Inu developer made the assertion over the weekend in reaction to a statement from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

Last week, Buterin said Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu’s major rival, deserves to be the second-biggest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin. This suggests that Buterin believes DOGE should rank ahead of ETH, the native coin of the Ethereum blockchain. 

This comment triggered reactions among Shiba Inu community members, who took to X to air their comments. They believe Buterin should have spoken in favor of SHIB instead of DOGE due to Shiba Inu’s accomplishments on Ethereum. While Shiba Inu officially launched on Ethereum, Dogecoin made its debut using the Litecoin architecture. 

Kusama Wants to Showcase SHIB Potential to Buterin  

Amid the debate, Shiba Inu’s lead developer, Shytoshi Kusama, requested to showcase SHIB’s potential to Buterin in a 10-minute pitch. 

Kusama hinted that the presentation will highlight Shiba Inu’s technologies, dedicated community, and decentralized governance system. The lead developer urged Shiba Inu enthusiasts to call Buterin’s attention to his request.  

Shiba Inu is the Best-Performing Asset Globally 

Expectedly, Shiba Inu community members complied with the directive, tagging and mentioning Buterin in different X posts. While urging Buterin to contact Kusama, famous community figure Digarch claimed that SHIB is the best-performing asset in the world. 

This claim aligns with a similar view Kusama shared recently. As reported earlier, Kusama suggested that Shiba Inu is the best-performing asset globally over the last decade, outperforming other financial instruments like Bitcoin and Tesla stock. 

On October 30, Kusama claimed that SHIB had registered a lifetime gain of 33,774,726%. According to Kusama, Shiba Inu outperformed Bitcoin’s growth by a whopping 6,600% (66x). 

Shiba Inu has undoubtedly witnessed an incredible performance since its launch in August 2020. The token surged by over 153 million percent in 14 months, from August 1, 2020, to October 28, 2021. This saw SHIB’s price surge from an initial price of $0.000000000056 to an all-time high of $0.00008616. 

SHIB is currently trading at $0.00001677, down 80.6% from its ATH. Despite the slump, the token is still up 29,946,328% in terms of lifetime gains.

Expert Predicts Timeline for XRP Bull Run Based on Global Liquidity

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As the crypto market gears up for a new phase in the ongoing season, influential analyst Steph has asserted that XRP will not be left out this time.

Although the ongoing bull season has lasted for a year, XRP remains within the same range it occupied before the market-wide surge began. In this context, Steph has disclosed his bold price projection for XRP in the next market phase and a timeline for when this might occur.

XRP Bull Run Based on Global Liquidity

Citing historical trends, Steph suggests that XRP may be primed for a substantial price surge within the last eight weeks of 2024 and into 2025. According to him, rising global liquidity would drive the potential rally for XRP.

In a post on X, Steph shared a chart indicating that significant price movements in XRP have historically correlated with increases in global liquidity. The chart highlighted two key periods: the 2017/2018 cycle and the 2020/2021 cycle, during which supposed boosts in global liquidity led to explosive gains in XRP’s value.

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Notably, the speculated increases in global liquidity during the 2017/2018 cycle propelled XRP to an all-time high. Another significant run occurred later when XRP neared $2 in 2021.

According to the analyst, the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 could represent a similar setup, with increased liquidity catalyzing a new rally in XRP. “2024-2025 could be the start of something massive,” he said.

This idea hinges on the notion that rising global liquidity fuels investment across markets, and XRP, as a top-ranking utility coin, may particularly benefit from this influx. 

Steph’s projection of an XRP bull run in 2025 aligns with the perspective of some market watchers, who speculate that XRP’s surge may correlate with the end of the current bull season, which is expected to conclude in 2025.

Projected XRP Price

According to his chart, Steph anticipates that XRP could surge above $6 with the projected rise in global liquidity. XRP is currently valued at $0.5058, which implies a potential increase of over 1,086%.

However, Steph’s optimistic outlook on XRP has faced skepticism from some market participants. Critics have dismissed his projections, arguing that XRP would struggle to surpass $0.55, noting that previous forecasts of an uptrend for XRP have not materialized.

US Election and FOMC Week Set Bitcoin Up for Likely $100K Surge: Analysis

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Bitcoin faces volatility amid U.S. election week, with the potential for a surge to $100,000 post-election.

Bitcoin declined over the weekend after nearing its all-time high, prompting some short-term traders to secure profits. The pullback brought the price down to nearly $67,000, yet market analysts remain confident in its longer-term trajectory.

Notably, on-chain insights provider Spot On Chain indicated that the market might be entering its most volatile week, fueled by the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. 

Spot On Chain emphasized that historically, significant gains often follow U.S. elections. This trend suggests that regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris secures the presidency, Bitcoin could maintain its upward trajectory, potentially reaching $100,000 by year-end. 

Bitcoin Historical Trends Post-Election

A review of past election periods supports the potential for significant price movements. Ali Martinez, a well-known analyst, examined Bitcoin’s trends after the last three presidential elections, suggesting that similar outcomes could be expected this time.

In 2012, Bitcoin’s price, which started below $12, skyrocketed to $1,137, reflecting an increase of more than 10,640%. The surge showcased how election periods could trigger exponential growth.

The 2016 election period demonstrated another steep upward trend. Bitcoin began the year in the hundreds and soared throughout 2017, peaking near $20,000 by the end of that year. This growth marked an approximate 2,698% increase, underscoring the crypto’s capacity for dramatic price appreciation after elections.

Further, following the 2020 election, Bitcoin started at around $14,000 and reached about $69,000 by late 2021, representing a growth of 386.07%. This sequence of data points underlines the consistent pattern of post-election rallies.

Potential Short-Term Reactions

In anticipation of the upcoming election, analyst Miles Deutscher provided insights on potential short-term market reactions. He noted that the election outcome could significantly influence Bitcoin’s immediate price movements.

Specifically, a Trump victory might lead to a dramatic price surge, while a win by Harris could dampen immediate momentum. Deutscher also suggested that a Harris win might shift focus toward altcoins, driven by pre-election de-risking and subsequent FOMO-driven investments. Nonetheless, he asserted regardless of the winner, Bitcoin would attain $100,000 post-election.

Analysts speculated that a Trump administration might take a more lenient approach to crypto regulations, potentially benefiting sectors like decentralized finance (DeFi) and revenue-sharing projects.

Cardano Founder Says He Is Going off the Grid After Heated X Dispute

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Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has stated he will be “off the grid” for some time after a Halloween drama spurred widespread community criticism.

Hoskinson was involved in another heated X spat, during which the Cardano community questioned his sense of leadership and responsibility. For context, the IOG founder shared a Taptool link to a meme coin created in response to his Halloween costume.

However, the creators of the WALDE meme coin rug pulled investors, selling the token’s liquidity a few hours after Hoskinson teased it. Following the scam, members of the Cardano community rained insults on the founder, alleging he shilled an unproven token and influenced buyers’ decisions.

Hoskinson Replies

The Cardano founder attempted to address the issue, stating in a tweet that he had nothing to do with the project and did not promote the meme coin. He argued that he only mentioned the WALDE token because it was created to mimic his Halloween custom.

Amidst the growing criticisms, with a user insinuating that Hoskinson is the cancer of Cardano, the founder decided to put it to a poll. Hoskinson asked in the survey if he is really Cardano’s problem and gave the community seven days to respond.

Interestingly, the poll has 36,441 votes at press time, with 57.1% of voters stating that Hoskinson was not Cardano’s “cancer.” However, a substantial number of them still had contrary views, with 42.9% agreeing the founder was part of the ecosystem’s woes.

Meanwhile, Hoskinson has decided to take a break from X throughout the week, stating he wants to disconnect and meditate. He noted that the criticisms and personal comments like “cancer,” “a criminal,” and “evil” were hurtful and beyond what he could endure.

Proponents Show Support

Amidst the developing situation, a faction of the Cardano community has thrown in their support for Hoskinson. For instance, IOG core tech Riley appreciated the founder for all he has done for the ecosystem, encouraging him to look past the X poll as it has no Sybil resistance.

Dave, one of Cardano’s stake pool operators, supported Hoskinson’s decision to take some time out of the toxic media, noting that “life was too short for this.” Other users also backed Hoskinson, stating he has impacted Cardano in no small way.

Notably, Hoskinson had previously bemoaned growing criticisms toward him and the Cardano ecosystem. He once reacted when users stated he was no longer needed after the Chang hard fork. He was also involved in a jab from Bitcoin Maxis over his involvement with the Cardano ecosystem.