Market commentators highlight various factors hindering XRP from reaching $1, including negative sentiments and the Ripple v. SEC lawsuit.

Over the weekend, XRP dipped below the $0.50 level, reaching $0.4930. This breach of a key psychological threshold follows a broader correction in the crypto market after last week’s gains. The previous week’s bull run gained momentum when Bitcoin surpassed $73,000 for the first time in seven months.

However, XRP lagged behind the bullish frenzy, peaking at only $0.5300 last week. Yet, as the market entered a correction phase, XRP followed suit. With XRP persistently trading below the $1 mark despite occasional market-wide swings, many have continued to wonder why this level has proven difficult to surpass.

In a recent post on X, Uphold, an American exchange known for its pro-XRP stance, sparked a conversation by asking community members what they believe is the “biggest” hurdle keeping XRP from doubling in price to $1.

The discussion gained traction, with XRP enthusiasts offering various perspectives on what is hindering XRP’s performance.

What Community Members Think is Holding Back XRP

According to Hugh Morris, “The switch has yet to be flipped.” This speculation suggests there could be an inside manipulation keeping the price down. Others echoed this sentiment, claiming that XRP’s price is being suppressed.

X user Timothy Michael argued that XRP is underperforming due to low transaction volumes on the XRP Ledger. However, Ripple’s latest report highlighted that, on a quarter-to-quarter basis, transactions on the XRPL increased by 99%.

Meanwhile, one commenter, “WallStreetBulls,” speculated that XRP’s price could ascend if it were listed against the upcoming RLUSD stablecoin. He believes that once XRP/BTC, XRP/USDT, and XRP/USDC trading pairs are removed and XRP/RLUSD is introduced, the price could rise as high as $20 or even $30. 

However, it remains unclear how the introduction of this trading pair alone could trigger a bull run for XRP.

Some commenters suggested that XRP faces negative sentiment due to massive donations in XRP tokens made by Ripple’s chairman, Chris Larsen, to fund Kamala Harris’s campaign.

Ripple Says SEC Lawsuit Impact XRP

Additionally, the ongoing SEC lawsuit was cited as a factor hindering XRP’s price. Interestingly, Ripple itself has acknowledged that the lawsuit impacts XRP’s value. 

In its latest quarterly markets report, Ripple specifically stated that the ongoing challenges from the SEC indicate that the lawsuit against the company is a significant factor influencing XRP’s price.

XRP to $1

XRP is currently trading at $0.5068. It last reached $1 in 2021, and to reclaim this threshold, its price must soar by 97.31%. However, this percentage gain poses hurdles for XRP in the current market.

Market expert and community enthusiast Amonyx has insisted that XRP is on the brink of an explosive run as the chart looks “locked and loaded.”

The crypto market has had a slow start to November after a grand recovery from a similar start the previous month. For context, Bitcoin and XRP have corrected 3.5% from the November 1 high of $71,448 and $0.5231, respectively.

Notably, XRP is down in almost all timeframes at the time of writing. Specifically, the 7th crypto asset by market cap has respectively corrected 1.42%, 5.08%, and 17.51% on the weekly, monthly, and yearly timeframes.

However, community enthusiast Amonyx recently identified a bullish pattern on the XRP chart, set to change XRP’s prevailing bearish momentum. The analyst noted that “we are locked and loaded” for a bullish uptick.

Locked and Loaded for an XRP Upitck

In a November 2 tweet, Amonyx drew the XRP community’s attention to an impending outbreak expected to herald an astronomical price growth. Per the tweet, the expert argued that the breakout is locked with a near-term outburst loaded.

In an accompanying 1-month timeframe chart, the analyst based his explosive price assertions on an imminent breakout from a symmetrical triangle. Amonyx speculated that the price outburst would push XRP multiple times past its current all-time to triple figures.

The analyst’s chat shows an ambitious price target of $225.9 per coin at the upper boundary of a broader ascending channel. This would mark a staggering 44,694% uptick from XRP’s current price. Notably, the enthusiast said the asset would mirror its performance after a similar breakout during the 2017/2018 bull cycle.

Recall that XRP pulled out a 60,000% surge from 2017 to 2018, surging to its current ATH of $3.31. The high-caliber digital asset reached a new high following a breakout from a symmetrical triangle, and Amonyx expects a similar outcome after the imminent outburst.

Still Below XRP’s Fair Market Value

Although lofty, Amonyx’s $225.9 XRP price call is still far below the asset’s fair market value. For context, equity firm Valhil Capital reported that the 7th largest cryptocurrency by market cap is well under its fair money price, measured using ecological systems and dynamic adoption.

The firm noted that XRP should have a fair money value of $3,541 with the parameters. Notably, the asset would have to expand by 7,013x from its current price to attain the ambitious fair market value.

Meanwhile, Altcoin Moe has set a “realistic” price target for XRP this bull cycle. The market expert noted that he expects XRP to hit a $500 billion market cap, pushing its price to $5.

In the meantime, XRP trades at $0.5055, recording a meager gain in the past 24 hours.

Crypto analyst Steph, recognized as “StephIsCrypto,” has discussed why XRP may be on the cusp of a major price surge, citing a rise in global liquidity.

In his recent analysis, he pointed out XRP’s historical relationship with global liquidity and structural patterns such as a Bollinger Bands squeeze and descending channel. According to Steph, these factors are setting up the perfect conditions for an XRP price breakout.

XRP Historic Ties to Global Liquidity

Steph highlighted how increases in liquidity have led to XRP’s price rallies. He noted that global liquidity—the availability of cash flow across markets—played a major role in XRP’s explosive growth during past cycles.

This pattern occurred in 2017 to 2018, a time when XRP reached an all-time high of $3.30 on the back of a surge in global liquidity. The trend also played out from 2020 to 2021, with XRP reaching a high of $1.96 by April 2021.

Currently, Steph suggests that a similar setup is forming. With global liquidity on an upward trajectory due to potential policy shifts from central banks, he anticipates another favorable environment for risk-on assets like XRP. 

He noted that actions by institutions such as the Federal Reserve, which may inject more money into the economy, could weaken fiat currencies and create an influx of capital. For this reason, Steph sees XRP as an ideal investment in light of the upcoming liquidity surge.

Weighted Global Liquidity Index

Further, Steph spotlighted the Weighted Global Liquidity Index (WGLI), which monitors global money supply by tracking central bank balance sheets and major U.S. accounts. 

According to him, this index is an indicator of potential price movements for risk-on assets like XRP. As WGLI trends upward, assets like XRP often experience value increases. Steph noted that since 2016, every major XRP rally has occurred after a rise in this index.

At present, Steph pointed out a divergence between WGLI and XRP’s price action. Although liquidity is rising, XRP has remained relatively stable, moving sideways in recent months. However, he sees this divergence as a bullish signal.

XRP Descending Channel and Bollinger Bands Squeeze

Besides macroeconomic factors, Steph also highlighted prominent indicators. He highlighted a descending channel that XRP has been trading within since 2021. This channel features declining trading volumes and multiple resistance tests. 

Steph believes each test of the resistance weakens it, bringing XRP closer to a breakout point. He argues that as long as XRP holds above the crucial $0.50 level on weekly closes, the overall uptrend remains intact. At the reporting time, XRP trades for $0.5039, up 0.19% this morning.

The market analyst also called attention to the compression in XRP’s Bollinger Bands. Interestingly, The Crypto Basic recently identified this squeeze in an analysis last week, noting that the compression has held for over a year.

When Bollinger Bands tighten, it signals an impending price movement. For instance, in 2017, XRP’s Bollinger Bands also compressed just before a major rally. Steph sees the current squeeze as a sign that XRP is nearing another substantial breakout. 

He expects a rally to $14, which would mark a 2,678% increase from the current price. Market analyst JD also identified the $14 level as a minimal target for XRP in a March 2024 analysis. At $14, XRP’s FDV would stand at $1.4 billion.

The Pipeline Flow Model, a market valuation model, estimates the fair market value of XRP could stand at a four-digit figure.

Several industry leaders and XRP enthusiasts have argued that XRP trades at a price far below its intrinsic value. These comments often suggest the altcoin is facing a price suppression campaign that has kept it largely undervalued over the years.

XRP Price Suppression Claims

Recall that XRP was one of the top performers of the 2017/2018 bull run, spiking 60,000% within a year to hit $3.31. However, since the collapse from this peak, the banker’s coin, as some call it, has continued to underperform.

Some believed this price suppression came from Ripple’s periodic XRP sales. However, the firm and some of its executives have swiftly debunked these claims. Others insist that the suppression has come from the SEC’s four-year legal battle with Ripple. 

Amid these speculations, most market watchers project an imminent breakout for XRP to new heights. Meanwhile, equity firm Valhil Capital previously presented a report with multiple valuation models. This report was an attempt to assess XRP’s fair market value, which they believe is far higher than its current market value.

The Pipeline Flow Model

The Pipeline Flow methodology is one such model. Developed by Dr. Deon Bakkes, an evolutionary biologist, the model approaches XRP’s valuation uniquely by leveraging concepts from ecological systems and dynamic adaptation. 

The model views XRP’s role in the financial ecosystem as a dynamic system where value could represent water flowing through pipes. In this analogy, the “pipes” represent XRP’s payment rails, and the diameter of each pipe represents the price of XRP. 

The circulating supply acts as the total number of pipes, determining the capacity for transactions. As transaction volumes rise, the model suggests that XRP’s price will expand, reflecting increased demand and tighter supply conditions.

The model assumes that a “big bang” event could drive a sharp increase in the adoption of XRP for foreign exchange (FX) transactions. It foresees an initial price spike during this adoption phase, followed by potential sell-offs. The initial adoption push could influence price stability, with price volatility as a natural outcome.

XRP Fair Market Value

The Pipeline Flow Model also factors in supply and demand interactions, considering the influences of store of value and transaction volume. 

With an integration of these forces, the model simulates different hypothetical market scenarios and discusses how XRP might respond under these conditions. It suggests that XRP’s fair value could stabilize at $3,541, assuming global transaction volumes reach a peak level. 

For context, XRP currently trades for $0.5126, down 6.35% over the past 24 hours. At its current market price, XRP is 690,692% away from the fair value of $3,541. Notably, this figure is not a price projection but a hypothetical value for XRP without the alleged price suppression.