Crypto Tank, an XRP community figure, recently responded to inquiries on why XRP has not moved favorably in recent times, spotlighting its potential utility in payments.

In his latest news on XRP, Crypto Tank confirmed that he had received multiple questions about why the XRP price was not moving. His commentary suggests a lack of utility, especially from major financial institutions, could be responsible for hampering XRP’s upward growth.

XRP Projected Growth

In his recent commentary, Crypto Tank discussed XRP’s utility. Interestingly, he outlined the mechanisms within the XRP Ledger (XRPL) that, in his view, make higher prices achievable. 

I'm getting a lot of comments about XRP price and why it's not moving so let me explain once more how XRP price is determined for the new people to this space and those that still have trouble understanding🧵

— CryptoTank (@Tank2033js) October 13, 2024

How XRP Price is Determined

He centered his argument on the idea that XRP’s price comes from dividing the value and volume of transactions on the ledger by the circulating supply. While the general consensus is that XRP’s circulating supply is around 56 billion tokens, he suggests this figure is inaccurate.

According to Crypto Tank, the market does not actively use much of the circulating supply, as private wallets from whales and exchanges hold most of it. He estimates that only the market only uses around 20% of the supply, or roughly 10 billion tokens, in transactions on a daily basis. 

Role of Financial Institutions and Liquidity Pools

The core of Crypto Tank’s prediction rests on XRP’s potential to become the primary token for settlement by banks and financial institutions. 

He outlined how banks will eventually use their own tokens, such as Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), paired with the Ripple stablecoin RLUSD in Automated Market Maker (AMM) pools. XRP, being the default settlement token on the XRPL, will play a major role in this process.

To give a sense of the scale, Crypto Tank pointed out that major institutions like SWIFT, SBI Japan, Bank of America, and J.P. Morgan handle trillions of dollars in settlements daily. 

He suggested that if just 10% of the XRPL processed just 10% of these transactions, that would amount to $2.5 trillion in daily volume. To ensure smooth operations without failed transactions, he argued that the liquidity pools would need to be double that value—around $5 trillion.

Notably, this massive influx of volume would require a deep pool of liquidity, and based on his calculations, XRP would need to trade at $500 per token to provide the necessary liquidity for these transactions. 

He further speculated that as more assets, such as tokenized real estate and tokenized debt, are introduced onto the XRPL, the demand for XRP will increase, potentially driving its price even higher. Crypto Tank argued that market cap discussions are irrelevant.

Note: This article was reviewed and Updated at 9:02 UTC.

XRP proponents have observed a notable dichotomy in the price action of XRP following the SEC’s latest legal actions.

On Thursday, the U.S. SEC signaled that it would appeal favorable rulings in the Ripple lawsuit that concluded a few months ago. By Friday, it officially progressed with the move, submitting official applications to the U.S. appellate court.

The initial notification on Thursday sent shockwaves through the XRP market. It prompted many to sell off their XRP tokens, which caused its price to plummet.

This massive sell-off also occurred when the SEC originally filed a lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020. However, the latest price drop in XRP resulting from the SEC’s legal action has been less severe this time compared to the past.

XRP Price Crash After SEC Filed Appeal

On October 2, when news of the SEC’s motion to appeal became public, XRP had established an intraday high of $0.6058. By October 3, XRP had collapsed to $0.5101, representing a 15.79% price drop.

Interestingly, by October 4, even after the SEC registered its appeal against Ripple in the Second Circuit court system, XRP’s price had already recovered from Thursday’s fall. At press time, XRP is trading at $0.5323, up by 1.67% over the past day.

XRP Price Collapse After SEC Filed Lawsuit in 2020

In contrast, the price crash in 2020 was more severe and extended over several days. On December 20 that year, XRP was priced at $0.5678. However, by December 23, after news of the lawsuit broke, XRP had plummeted to $0.2214, a massive 61% decline.

The price slump became even more intense as more exchanges began delisting XRP. By December 29, XRP had dropped to $0.1748, approximately 70% lower than its price of $0.5678. This was the lowest value XRP reached before it began a recovery phase.

XRP to $4 or $6

The resilience XRP has shown amid the latest legal action has instilled confidence in proponents regarding XRP’s potential to rally to $6 soon. Market pundit Bobby A is among those holding this view. In a commentary, he warned that the SEC’s appeal notice is a “sell trap,” predicting that XRP will reach $4.23.

Bobby A believes the macro charts remain bullish and argues that sell-the-news behavior often leads investors to miss opportunities. He tweeted that XRP’s indicators still suggest an impending uptrend.

Meanwhile, an analysis has suggested that XRP could even rise to $6 in the near term. After hitting a low of $0.17 amid the lawsuit in December 2020, XRP later rallied by 1,021% to $1.96 by April 2021.

Factoring a similar percentage increase on XRP’s recent low of $0.5101 amid the appeal notice, it could rally up to $5.72, approximately $6, as early as January. However, the likelihood of history repeating itself remains uncertain.

Analyst Myles G predicts a bold timeline for the XRP price to surge by 464% to $3, projecting a window of just a few months.

After dumping hard following the SEC’s appeal bid, XRP stabilized at around $0.5322, registering a paltry 0.82% daily gain. Meanwhile, XRP is nursing a massive 17.6% weekly loss at this price point.

While the latest legal development weakened XRP’s bull run momentum, analyst Myles G boldly set out timelines for when he believes XRP could re-attain psychological price points of $1, $2, and $3.

Timeline for XRP to Reach $1, $2, and $3

In a disclosure shared on X, Myles noted that XRP could reclaim $1 as early as this month, October, or at the latest by November. XRP last traded at $1 in the fourth quarter of 2021, precisely three years ago. It made a close attempt towards $1 in July 2023, when it rallied to $0.93 following its lawsuit victory.

XRP must grow by 88% from its current market price to reach $1. Myles is confident that XRP’s anticipated bull run will not lose momentum at $1 by November. He forecasts that XRP will double in price to $2 by Christmas, December 25.

Notably, XRP last reached a value of $2 in January 2018. The asset attempted to breach this threshold again in April 2021 but lost momentum after hitting $1.96.

However, Myles believes XRP is poised for stronger momentum this time. The analyst projects that after XRP reclaims $2 by the end of the year, it could target the $3 mark by the first quarter of 2025.

Specifically, he argues that XRP would stage another substantial 50% growth from $2 to recapture $3 by March next year. Meanwhile, from its current market value of $0.5322, XRP needs a rally of 464% to reach $3.

Will $3 Be XRP’s Peak for This Cycle?

Given the bold nature of this forecast—especially as it is just six months away from March, when Myles expects XRP to be worth $3—community member George Woodward pressed for reassurance, asking Myles to confirm his confidence in the projection. He replied that he was “very” confident about it.

Accordingly, he warned XRP proponents to load up on their holdings now, emphasizing that it could be the final window to buy XRP at a low price.

Interestingly, in a follow-up post, Myles asserted that XRP could even reach $3 by Christmas, underscoring his optimism regarding an XRP bull run.

Meanwhile, some other commenters expressed that Myles’ projection for XRP is conservative. One even questioned why $3 would be XRP’s target after seven years of downtrend.

Notably, in a previous analysis, Myles revealed that his profit-taking range starts from $3 and goes up to $7. This suggests that $3 is not his peak outlook for XRP in this cycle but rather the point at which he could begin cashing in on his XRP investments.

If XRP fully replaced SWIFT as the primary system for international financial transfers, its price could potentially rise massively. 

XRP boasts impressive utility in the payment sector due to the attractive features of its underlying blockchain, the XRP Ledger (XRPL). Notably, as a result of this utility, several analysts believe XRP should be trading much higher than it does, raising discussions around price suppression.

XRP’s Potential

Consequently, market commentators suggest XRP’s potential could be unlocked if it witnesses an increase in adoption. Others have asserted that the token could eventually capture a chunk of the payment volume handled by SWIFT, a development that could help its price action.

SWIFT handles over $5 trillion in daily transactions, according to a report by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). This translates to around $1.25 quadrillion annually. Replacing even a small portion of this could dramatically increase XRP’s demand and market cap.

For XRP to replace SWIFT, it must secure broad adoption across global financial institutions. While the XRPL is faster and more cost-effective—processing transactions in 3 to 5 seconds at almost no cost—SWIFT has an established network of over 11,000 institutions and decades of trust. 

SWIFT’s deep integration within the financial system makes it a strong competitor despite its slower transaction speeds and higher fees. Interestingly, payment giant Ripple has already secured some major partnerships which could leverage the XRPL, but it still has a long way to go in catching up to SWIFT’s extensive reach.

Hurdles XRP Must Overcome to Rival SWIFT

One of the most significant hurdles for XRP is gaining regulatory clarity, especially in the U.S. The legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been a major stumbling block for its adoption. 

However, as the lawsuit nears a close, if the absence of an appeal seals it completely, this could boost confidence in XRP and lead to broader acceptance by financial institutions.

Regarding scalability, SWIFT handles vast transaction volumes daily, and for XRP to compete, the XRPL must scale to process this volume reliably. The XRPL already allows quick settlement times, but operating at SWIFT’s scale might require upgrades in liquidity and infrastructure.

In terms of liquidity, XRP would need to maintain substantial liquidity in all major fiat currencies to facilitate seamless cross-border transactions. Ripple is addressing this through its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service, but much more would be needed to replace SWIFT.

XRP Price if Replaced SWIFT

If XRP handled 5-10% of SWIFT’s transaction volume, potentially amounting to $125 trillion, its market cap would need to rise massively. Some estimates place this market valuation at a reasonable figure of $10 trillion, much more than the broader crypto market cap.

A market cap of $10 trillion could push the price of XRP into the hundreds of dollars, considering the circulating supply of 100 billion tokens. Such a figure would lead to an XRP price of $100. Interestingly, if XRP fully replaced SWIFT, prices could reach the ambitious $1,000 level.

However, there are significant challenges. Financial institutions must trust XRP as a secure and stable alternative to SWIFT. Cryptocurrencies’ inherent volatility also poses a risk, as institutions would need a stable asset for everyday transactions. 

XRP price would hit a level it last witnessed six years ago if an XRP ETF product scoops up about 50% of total Bitcoin ETF inflows following approval.

The projected launch of an XRP ETF product has dominated the discussions within the XRP community. This is largely due to the potential such a product has in terms of bolstering XRP price action. 

An XRP ETF Could Inject More Capital

Notably, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) is capable of attracting more capital into the XRP market, especially from institutional investors. The market observed this trend with Bitcoin, which has so far observed an inflow of over $17 billion in capital since the launch of its ETF products.

As a result, BTC broke an age-old historical trend to secure a new all-time high before its halving in this cycle. Though inflows have cooled since the first quarter of the year, the spot Bitcoin ETF products remain in the green. 

Meanwhile, amid the success of the spot Bitcoin ETF products, discussions around the potential launch of ETFs tied to other crypto assets emerged. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, was second to witness these products, but they have not been as successful as the Bitcoin vehicles.

Interestingly, members of the XRP community believe XRP is the next asset in line to see a spot ETF launch, given its legal clarity. Recall that in May, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse argued that the launch of ETFs tied to XRP, Solana and Cardano could be imminent. 

Notably, asset manager Grayscale Investments recently re-introduced its XRP Trust. This move was the first of four steps in the introduction of an XRP ETF. As a result, the speculations surrounding the potential launch of an XRP ETF have gained steam in recent times. 

XRP Price if XRP ETF Gets 50% of BTC ETF Inflows

Should Grayscale move forward with launching an XRP ETF, other asset managers could follow. This trend materialized with the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Further, the success of these products could benefit XRP price tremendously if they record a success similar to the Bitcoin ones.

For instance, the Bitcoin ETFs now boast a cumulative net inflow of $17.698 billion since their launch in January. If the XRP ETFs witness 50% of this inflow, they could attract up to $8.849 billion in capital injection into the market. 

Applying an inflow-to-valuation multiplier of 1:10 would translate to an additional $88.49 billion for XRP’s market cap. Notably, XRP currently has a market valuation of $33.237 billion at the reporting time. If the market welcomes $88.49 billion more, XRP’s valuation would surge to $121.73 billion.

Given XRP’s circulating supply of about 56.5 billion tokens, a market cap of $121.73 billion leads to a price of $2.15. This value is a 265% increase from the current XRP price of $0.5890. The last time XRP saw the $2 price level was in January 2018 amid its drop from the $3.31 all-time high.