The Crypto Basic

XRP is at a point where fear, uncertainty, and doubt have raided market sentiments, but there is a catch, according to historical data.

Market intelligence platform Santiment highlighted this data in a Monday tweet, even as XRP dropped considerably over the weekend. The prominent altcoin retraced 2.2% on Sunday, closing the week in a near stalemate.

While prices have recovered slightly today, market participants remain heavily bearish on the XRP price trend. However, history suggests it could be a good opportunity for some exposure to the asset.

Key Points

• XRP’s weekly social data is at historically negative levels, as market FUD has reached their third-highest point in the past two years.
• Last week, there were 1.02 bullish per 1.00 bearish comments, meaning that for every 100 posts on social media supporting an XRP rebound, there were 102 other posts favoring further bearish trends.
• When bearish comments replace bullish ones, the chances of a brief recovery increase.
• A similarly heavy negative sentiment occurred in February and October 2025, each preceding a temporary price rebound.

XRP FUD Hits Historical Levels

Santiment noted that XRP’s weekly social data is at historically negative levels. Market fear, doubt, and uncertainty (FUD) has reached their third-highest point in the past two years, as users express skepticism over the asset’s price trajectory.

Notably, the firm tracks this data through comments on social platforms such as X, Reddit, and Facebook. It shows that over the past week, negative commentary about XRP has significantly surpassed positive commentary. Such a disposition confirms that sentiment has turned very sour amid an underwhelming price trend.

According to Santiment, last week, there were 1.02 bullish per 1.00 bearish comments. This means that for every 100 posts on social media supporting an XRP rebound, there were 102 other posts favoring further bearish trends.

What Does This Mean for XRP?

Notably, this heavy negative social sentiment suggests that retail traders are turning their backs on XRP. As prices continue to consolidate, they grow impatient and either sell their holdings or bet on further price declines.

As bearish as the outlook may sound, history suggests otherwise. Santiment emphasized that when bearish comments replace bullish ones, the chances of a brief recovery increase. As always, the market tends to go in the opposite direction of crowd sentiment.

Past events provide further context. An accompanying chart highlighted two previous instances in which crowd sentiment turned this bearish and what followed.

For context, in early February 2025, the ratio of positive to negative commentary on XRP reached 0.96 bullish per 1.00 bearish comment. This bearish bias coincided with the coin’s drop from $2.78 to $1.79, but it marked the price bottom for several weeks. XRP rebounded from this low to reclaim $3 in early March 2025.

A similar move occurred in October 2025. Social sentiment fell below the FUD zone, sparking fear among the crowd. The ratio reached 1.01 bullish per 1.00 bearish comment, signaling extreme skepticism. During this period, XRP crashed to $0.77 on Binance but rebounded sharply to $2.69.

Low Entry Opportunity

As such, Santiment suggested that the dip in sentiment could be a low-risk entry opportunity for XRP. Amid the withdrawal following its over 60% drop from its July 2025 high of $3.66, the platform noted that this could be a good time to capitalize on the broader bearishness.

However, this comes with risks and is best for patient holders. While a brief rally might occur, the broader structure remains bearish, with analysts predicting further price correction for XRP. However, the risk-to-reward ratio is very appealing for those who are willing to hold longer, Santiment added.

The narrative around XRP and Bitcoin is strengthening, according to finance coach John Vasquez (Coach JV).

He believes current global economic and geopolitical tensions are reinforcing the long-term case for crypto assets, despite short-term uncertainty.

Key Points

• Coach JV says rising global tensions are strengthening the long-term case for XRP and Bitcoin despite volatility.
• Inflation risks, oil disruptions, and liquidity stress are driving interest in decentralized assets like XRP.
• Despite recent declines, Bitcoin and XRP still outperform cash over time as fiat purchasing power weakens.
• Coach outlines two paths ahead: prolonged easing or a sharp market crash, urging investors to prepare.

XRP and Bitcoin Narrative Gains Momentum

In a recent discussion, Vasquez pointed to growing macroeconomic instability as a key driver behind the strengthening narrative for both XRP and Bitcoin. He noted that while markets may remain volatile in the near term, the overall trend favors alternative assets.

Specifically, he noted that ongoing geopolitical tensions and failed negotiations involving the United States and Iran are adding pressure to global markets. The finance coach believes this situation creates an environment where decentralized assets like XRP become more relevant.

Inflation, Oil Prices, and Liquidity Concerns

Vasquez highlighted several macro factors contributing to this shift. For instance, rising oil prices due to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could push inflation higher. At the same time, he warned of tightening liquidity and stress in global credit markets.

He described the situation as a developing “global credit crisis,” with countries increasingly moving away from reliance on the U.S. dollar, a trend often referred to as de-dollarization.

In this environment, he argues that holding cash long-term may not be effective due to inflation eroding purchasing power. Instead, he sees assets like XRP, Bitcoin, and commodities as better positioned to outperform over time.

Meanwhile, critics often call into question the volatility of crypto assets. Over the past year, Bitcoin’s price has been down 16.32%, while XRP has fared far worse with a 38% decline.

Moreover, since the start of the Middle East conflict in February, crypto asset prices have not provided the much-needed hedge despite showing remarkable stability during this period of tension.

Nonetheless, over a longer timeframe, such as five to ten years, major crypto assets like Bitcoin and XRP have proven to be better holds than cash.

For instance, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has dropped by 28% over the past ten years, from 43.10 to 30.9. Meanwhile, during the same period, Bitcoin and XRP have seen their prices increase nearly 200-fold.

Monetary Reset or Market Collapse

Looking ahead, Vasquez sees two possible paths for the global economy. One is continued low interest rates and money printing, which could extend current imbalances.

The other is a sharper correction, with possible crashes in stock and credit markets.

He also pointed to changes, such as Japan’s interest rate shifts and the unwinding of carry trades, as additional risks to the system.

Looking at history, he noted that major downturns have occurred many times before, suggesting another reset could happen again.

Positioning Around XRP

Amid this uncertainty, Vasquez stressed a strategy focused on accumulating assets during market downturns. He specifically mentioned XRP and Bitcoin as part of his long-term positioning, alongside commodities like silver and income-generating assets.

Ultimately, his message calls for preparation, both financially and mentally, for a changing economic landscape.

XRP appears to be repeating the same downward-sloping trendline retest pattern that previously led to its early March upsurge.

XRP has continued to struggle after pulling back from the March 17 high of $1.60, which it attained on the back of the broader market rebound push as the U.S.-Iran conflict progressed. Since then, the price has fallen by more than 16%, currently trading at $1.33.

However, Swarmik, an accomplished trader who entered an XRP short position earlier this month, has called attention to a similar pattern involving a sloping trendline retest that previously led to the March rally.

Key Points

• XRP has collapsed more than 16% from the March 17 high of $1.60 amid the ongoing correction.
• This builds on the downtrend that began in October 2025, with XRP already down 63% from its July 2025 all-time high.
• Since mid-February, XRP has been trading below a downward-sloping trendline, which has acted as resistance.
• Before the rally to the March high, XRP retested this trendline three times.
• This month, XRP has retested the trendline resistance two times already, now eyeing a third approach.

XRP Pulls Back After March Peak

Swarmik presented the recent analysis as an update to a previous disclosure, in which he confirmed profiting from last month’s XRP short position. At the time of his earlier disclosure, XRP had dropped 17% since he entered the short position. 

This time, however, Swarmik admitted that following the initial drop, the price has begun consolidating on medium timeframes. For context, he presented his short as XRP rallied alongside the market to the March 17 peak of $1.6. After this peak, it recorded a massive pullback, dropping 20% to $1.27 by April 5.

Price Eyes Third Trendline Retest

While the price has recovered from this early-April low, XRP still changes hands around $1.33, down 16.8% from the March 17 peak. According to Swarmik, XRP has now started consolidating, but there’s nothing to be concerned about for now.

He stressed that he has started observing an interesting pattern on the chart. Specifically, the analyst called attention to a downward-sloping trendline that has acted as resistance for XRP since it collapsed from the $1.67 high on Feb. 15. 

Amid the latest recovery push that started after the April 5 low of $1.27, XRP has retested this trendline twice. The first retest played out when the price hit $1.39 on April 7 and pulled back. Meanwhile, the second retest occurred as XRP recently rose to $1.375 over the weekend. Each attempt faced resistance at the trendline and failed to break through.

Swarmik expects a third attempt to retest this same trendline, but believes XRP could again face a roadblock and pull back. However, suggests that this would help build strength for a decisive push above the trendline later on. “I’m not feeling optimistic, but a small rally is possible,” he remarked.

Historical Context

Swarmik’s optimism comes from historical data confirming a similar occurrence just last month. Notably, after crashing from the $1.67 high in mid-February, XRP recovered and retested the trendline three times: at $1.49 on Feb. 25, at $1.47 on March 4, and then at $1.45 on March 13.

Each of the three attempts failed, but following the third one, XRP staged an upward push that pushed above the trendline resistance, leading to the March 17 top of $1.6.  This represented an over 13% increase from the breakout point. Swarmik expects the same pattern to play out after the third attempt. However, this remains highly speculative.