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On-Chain Data Suggest Bitcoin Has Not Hit the Full Bear Market Floor

Zabi
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On-Chain Data Suggest Bitcoin Has Not Hit the Full Bear Market Floor

Bitcoin is steadily approaching a price range historically associated with long-term buying opportunities. 

However, current on-chain data suggests the market has yet to reach the conditions typically seen at previous cycle bottoms.

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s spot price remains significantly above its realized price, a key indicator that most holders are still in profit. This marks an important distinction from past accumulation phases, where widespread losses were more evident.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin trades at $68,774, roughly 21% above its realized price, meaning most holders remain in profit.
  • A full market bottom historically coincides with spot prices falling below the realized price, which is not currently observed.
  • Rapid compression: Bitcoin’s premium over realized price dropped from 120% in late 2024 to 21% today, signaling shifting market dynamics.
  • Institutional sentiment shows mixed signals: Coinbase Premium Index negative, yet ETF inflows surpassed $1 billion in March.
  • Analysts caution that Bitcoin has not yet entered a confirmed accumulation zone, despite recent stability around $65,000–$70,000.

Spot vs. Realized Price: A Critical Gap

Bitcoin is currently trading at $68,774, while its realized price sits at $54,286. This creates a gap of roughly $14,500, or about 21%.

The realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all coins, based on the price at which they last moved. This metric is widely used to identify potential market bottoms. 

Historically, when the spot price falls below the realized price, it signals that the broader market has entered a loss-making phase, often a precursor to strong accumulation.

Bitcoin Spot vs Realized Price Gap
Bitcoin Spot vs Realized Price Gap

Historical Cycles Suggest Deeper Pain Before Bottoms

Looking back at previous cycles provides useful context. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin traded below its realized price for several months, reflecting sustained selling pressure.

Between June and October 2022, the market remained under this threshold. At its lowest point, Bitcoin dropped about 15% below the realized price, aligning closely with the cycle bottom near $15,500.

A similar dynamic played out during the early 2020 COVID-driven crash. In both instances, widespread investor losses created ideal conditions for accumulation, as market participants faced significant pressure.

In contrast, today’s market shows far less stress. With Bitcoin still trading roughly 21% above its realized price, the average investor remains in profit. This suggests that full capitulation, a hallmark of previous bottoms, has not yet occurred.

For Bitcoin to revisit its realized price, it would need to decline to around $54,000, implying a further drop of approximately 20%.

Rapid Compression Signals Changing Market Dynamics

Despite the absence of full capitulation, the gap between spot and realized prices has narrowed significantly.

In late 2024, Bitcoin traded above $119,000, with a premium of nearly 120% over its realized price. That premium has since compressed to just 21% over roughly 15 months, a sharp adjustment reflecting changing market dynamics.

Notably, such rapid compression is typically associated with major downturns. However, in this case, it has occurred without a full-scale market collapse, making the trend particularly noteworthy.

Is This Truly an Accumulation Zone?

This evolving landscape has sparked debate among analysts. CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen recently suggested that Bitcoin has entered an “accumulation zone,” drawing comparisons to the 2022 bottom.

However, a closer look at the data raises questions about this view. In previous cycles, true accumulation zones formed only when prices fell to or below the realized price.

Since Bitcoin remains well above that level, some analysts argue that labeling the current phase as a confirmed accumulation zone may be premature.

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Mixed Signals Across Market Indicators

Beyond price metrics, other indicators paint a mixed picture. 

For context, the Coinbase Premium Index has recently turned negative, signaling weaker institutional demand from U.S.-based investors. This suggests a decline in buying pressure from a key market segment.

At the same time, there are signs of resilience. Bitcoin has held within the $65,000 to $70,000 range for roughly five weeks, maintaining stability despite geopolitical tensions, including the US-Iran conflict.

Additionally, ETF inflows surpassed $1 billion in March, indicating that investor interest remains intact, even amid uncertainty.

Closer to Opportunity, But Not There Yet

Taken together, the data present a nuanced outlook. Bitcoin is clearly moving closer to levels historically linked with strong buying opportunities, but key confirmation signals are still missing.

Most notably, the market has not yet experienced widespread losses among holders, a condition that has consistently marked definitive bottoms in previous cycles.

Until that level of pressure emerges, on-chain data suggests Bitcoin may still have further to go before a true market bottom is established.

XRP Presents Buying Opportunity for Strong Long-Term Uptrend

Elendu Benedict
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XRP Presents Buying Opportunity for Strong Long-Term Uptrend

XRP is developing nicely within an ascending triangle, and the pattern’s completion could offer strong long-term price expansion.

This analysis makes the current market price a good opportunity, as projected price expansion could set XRP up for an impulsive move toward unprecedented levels. Currently, the coin trades at $1.36, increasing 2.9% over the past 24 hours.

Key Points

  • XRP is trending within an ascending triangle on the monthly chart and has remained within this structure since April 2017.
  • Its recent major move within this triangle was the rally to the resistance at $3.66 in July 2025 but failed to sustainably break out.
  • Unless broader market conditions change, XRP could revisit the triangle’s dynamic support at $0.90.
  • However, if XRP follows this ascending triangle, its long-term trajectory would be very positive.
  • The first XRP long-term target for this ascending triangle breakout is $27.17, and it could explode to $48.12 in a more bullish scenario.

XRP Ascending Triangle

Top chartist Ali Martinez identified that XRP is trending within an ascending triangle on the monthly chart. XRP has remained within this structure since April 2017, shuffling between the upper resistance and the ascending support trendline.

Notably, its recent major move within this triangle was the rally to the resistance in July 2025. XRP made a new all-time high of $3.66, briefly breaking out of the triangle. However, it closed the month $3.02 below the $3.32 resistance.

Since then, XRP has been trending downward and recently broke below the key support level of $1.60. Unless broader market conditions change or XRP shows strong bullish momentum, it could revisit the triangle’s dynamic support at $0.90. This represents a 33.8% correction from current prices.

Long-Term XRP Uptrend Potential

However, Martinez noted that if XRP follows this ascending triangle, its long-term trajectory would be very positive. The sentiment suggests that the current trend is the storm before the calm, and also a short-term buying opportunity for what is to come.

The prominent analyst insisted that the structure could hold strong long-term uptrend potential, particularly if the altcoin breaks upwards. An accompanying chart shows that closing above the $3.32 stronghold on the monthly chart paves the way for a move toward unprecedented prices.

XRP Ascending Triangle/Ali Martinez
XRP Ascending Triangle/Ali Martinez

The first long-term target for this breakout is $27.17, representing a 1,897% increase from the current market price. Meanwhile, XRP could explode to $48.12, culminating in a 3,438% growth.

Nonetheless, breaking below the $0.90 support would signal a breakdown of this triangle and invalidate the structure. Doing this paves the way for a near-92% capitulation to retest the $0.11 support level.

Accumulation Adds Bullish Momentum

Meanwhile, Martinez noted in a separate tweet that whales are accumulating XRP in no small way, adding to the bullish momentum. In the past week, large holders bought 190 million XRP, bringing their stash to nearly 11.21 billion tokens.

Institutions are also adding to their XRP bags, contrary to those seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum. Last week, XRP investment products brought in $15.8 million, as it saw the largest positive net flow for any crypto asset during this period.

Analyst Reveals His Plan if XRP Weakness Persists

Mark Brennan
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Analyst Reveals His Plan if XRP Weakness Persists

As the current XRP downtrend persists, a prominent analyst has shared his plan for the bear market, especially if prices drop further.

XRP has entered a prolonged period of weakness, recording its sixth straight monthly loss, the first such streak since 2014, after a 2.63% drop in March 2026. The decline, which began in October 2025, has pushed the asset down 26% year-to-date.

Amid this pressure, analyst EGRAG Crypto says the downtrend is still in place. He has shared how he plans to handle the current bearish market situation, but maintains that his $15 to $50 target remains unchanged.

Key Points

  • XRP has now recorded six consecutive monthly losses after its 2.63% drop in March 2026.
  • While the $1.1 floor has marked XRP’s lowest price in this cycle, projections still point to a possible drop below $1.
  • EGRAG plans to sell into strength during recoveries and accumulate more if prices decline further.
  • XRP would have to engineer a monthly reclaim of the pivotal $2 mark to be able to shift the trend.
  • The long-term targets of $15, $27, and $50 remain intact, requiring a 1,000% to 3,700% surge.

XRP’s Initial Run to $2

In his recent analysis, EGRAG said he does not guess market moves, but waits for signals before taking action. According to him, when XRP traded at $2, he chose not to call for a continued rally because the market had not confirmed a breakout. He stressed that no breakout means no confirmation, no confidence, and no chasing price.

For context, at the start of 2026, XRP tried to recover from its broader decline. Specifically, it moved up from $1.84, regained $2, and climbed to $2.41 by January 6, a 31% rise in less than a week. At the time, many analysts believed the upward move could continue.

XRP 1M Chart EGRAG Crypto
XRP 1M Chart | EGRAG Crypto

However, XRP failed to close above a rising support trendline that had already turned into resistance in December 2025. After the broader market lost strength following the Jan. 6 peak, XRP dropped again. Since then, it has fallen 45.6% from $2.41, as the downtrend continues for another three months.

XRP Structure Indicates More Downside Risk

Speaking further, EGRAG pointed out that the macro bottom is still not confirmed, urging traders to be careful. He noted that recent price increases represent temporary relief rallies, not strong signs of a reversal. To him, XRP must reclaim $2 on a monthly close before it can confirm any real change in trend.

Notably, on Feb. 6, XRP dropped to $1.1, marking its lowest price since the downtrend began. While most traders have suggested that this could mark the bottom, especially considering XRP’s quick rebound from there, EGRAG insists that the market has not confirmed that level as a true low.

Interestingly, other analysts, including Casi and Chart Nerd, also align with EGRAG’s views. They believe XRP could drop below $1, possibly reaching between $0.7 and $0.9, which suggests the market may still have more room to fall.

XRP Trading Strategy and Long-Term Targets Remain Firm

EGRAG also discussed how retail traders often react to price changes. He noted that some sold XRP around $2.60 and now feel too uncertain to buy back at lower prices because sentiment has turned negative. According to him, this pattern leads many to sell in fear, miss opportunities, and then buy back later at higher prices.

Notably, he takes a different approach. He says he already sold some of his holdings at $3, following his plan rather than reacting to emotions or outside opinions. Now, if prices drop further, he plans to buy more, as he believes he understands both the market structure and XRP’s long-term value.

Despite the current weakness, EGRAG has not changed his targets. He still expects XRP to reach $15, $27, and $50+, aligning with the uppermost ascending trendline on his chart, which he calls “Chasm.” From the current price of $1.31, this would mean gains of about 1,045% to reach $15, 1,961% to reach $27, and 3,716% to reach $50.

Bitcoin Developers Push Quantum-Resistant Upgrade Amid New Security Concerns

Zabi
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0
Bitcoin Developers Push Quantum-Resistant Upgrade Amid New Security Concerns

Bitcoin developers are advancing a new proposal to protect the network from emerging quantum computing threats amid growing concerns about cryptographic vulnerabilities.

The initiative follows fresh warnings from Google Quantum AI that existing encryption standards may be weaker than previously believed.

Against this backdrop, the proposed upgrade, BIP-360, or “Pay to Merkle Root (P2MR)”, seeks to strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term resilience.

Key Points

  • Google Quantum AI research warns that breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve cryptography may require fewer resources than previously estimated, accelerating concerns about quantum timelines.
  • The study suggests sufficiently advanced quantum machines could theoretically break ECC in minutes.
  • Industry analysis estimates that millions of Bitcoin could be exposed if public keys remain visible on-chain, with potential losses measured in hundreds of billions of dollars.
  • BIP-360 proposes replacing exposed public-key-based spending with a Merkle-root-based structure to reduce attack surfaces in a future quantum computing scenario.

Google Research Raises Alarm Over Cryptographic Risks

The urgency around this effort stems largely from recent findings published by Google Quantum AI. In its whitepaper, the organization argues that breaking 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC) may require significantly fewer resources than earlier estimates suggested.

Specifically, the research indicates that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could decrypt such systems in roughly nine minutes. Notably, this duration is shorter than Bitcoin’s average block confirmation time, raising practical concerns.

The study further estimates that the top 1,000 Ethereum wallets could be compromised within nine days. Based on these findings, Google urged the crypto industry to accelerate its transition toward post-quantum cryptography.

Industry Feedback and Risk Exposure

Following the report, industry experts quickly weighed in on its implications. Haseeb, managing partner at Dragonfly, noted that the research improves the efficiency of breaking ECDSA by nearly 20 times, potentially advancing the need for quantum-resistant systems to as early as 2029.

He also pointed out that Google verified its findings using zero-knowledge proofs, allowing validation without exposing sensitive technical details.

At the same time, estimates of potential exposure within the Bitcoin network are becoming clearer. Analysis from Project Eleven suggests that approximately 7 million BTC could be vulnerable under a “long exposure” scenario in which wallet public keys are already visible on-chain. In such cases, quantum attackers could, in principle, exploit this data.

At current market prices, the assets at risk are valued at roughly $470 billion, underscoring the scale of the potential threat.

BIP-360 Testnet Deployment Begins

As concerns mount, BTQ Technologies has released BIP-360 on its Bitcoin Quantum Testnet (v0.3.0). This represents the first deployment of the proposal within an operational test environment, enabling practical experimentation and validation.

The P2MR model introduces a redesigned transaction structure that relies on Merkle roots instead of directly exposing public keys. By doing so, it aims to reduce the effectiveness of quantum-based attacks, including those leveraging Shor’s algorithm.

Although still in draft form, the testnet deployment allows developers, miners, and researchers to evaluate performance and security under real-world conditions.

Addressing Structural Weaknesses in Taproot

Importantly, BIP-360 also targets a known limitation in Bitcoin’s Taproot upgrade, introduced in 2021. While Taproot improved efficiency and privacy, its key-path spending mechanism can reveal public keys on-chain.

Over time, this exposure could become a critical liability in a quantum-enabled threat landscape. Therefore, BIP-360 seeks to mitigate this risk by minimizing or eliminating public key exposure through its redesigned framework.

Expanded Testnet Features and Early Adoption

Beyond its core architecture, the Bitcoin Quantum Testnet v0.3.0 introduces several enhancements to support post-quantum experimentation. These include new address formats, integration of Dilithium-based signature schemes, and full transaction lifecycle testing.

To accelerate development, block times have been reduced to one minute, while fee structures and signature processing have been adjusted to handle larger cryptographic payloads.

This evolving test environment has already gained traction. According to BTQ Technologies, more than 50 miners are participating in the network. The system has processed over 100,000 blocks and attracted a community of more than 100 open-source contributors. Notably, this release represents the fourth iteration of the testnet, reflecting ongoing development.

Narrowing Window for Quantum Preparedness

Taken together, these developments point to a shift across the crypto industry. As highlighted by Google Quantum AI and supported by independent analysis, the timeline for addressing quantum threats may be shorter than once assumed.

In this context, initiatives like BIP-360 represent early but meaningful steps toward future-proofing blockchain infrastructure. While still experimental, they signal a growing recognition that adapting to quantum-era risks is no longer optional, but increasingly urgent.

XRP Can Coordinate Quantum-Resistant Upgrade, Bitcoin May Struggle: Expert

Lele Jima
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XRP Can Coordinate Quantum-Resistant Upgrade, Bitcoin May Struggle: Expert

Popular XRPL dUNL validator Vet expresses confidence in the XRP Ledger community’s ability to coordinate a quantum-resistant hard fork.

At the same time, he questioned whether the Bitcoin ecosystem could achieve the same outcome.

Key Points

  • XRPL dUNL validator Vet argues that the XRP Ledger can coordinate a quantum-resistant hard fork, while casting doubt on Bitcoin’s ability to achieve the same.
  • He emphasizes that Bitcoin’s biggest obstacle lies in social coordination rather than technical limitations.
  • Vet expresses strong confidence in XRPL’s willingness and ability to implement upgrades that strengthen network security.
  • A recent Google report warns that advanced quantum systems could eventually break encryption standards widely used across major cryptocurrencies.

“XRPL Can Coordinate Quantum-Resistant Hard Fork, Not Bitcoin”

In a series of tweets, Vet joined the growing debate about how advances in quantum computing could affect blockchain security and potentially allow attackers to compromise existing cryptographic systems.

He raised doubts about whether the Bitcoin community could successfully coordinate a quantum-resistant hard fork if emerging technologies begin to threaten current cryptographic standards.

He argued that the challenge would likely be social rather than technical. In his view, reaching agreement across Bitcoin’s decentralized ecosystem could prove difficult because the network has a long history of contentious governance debates.

In contrast, Vet expressed strong confidence that the XRP Ledger (XRPL) could implement a similar upgrade more smoothly. He explained that the network relies on a tradition that enables validators to introduce and adopt protocol improvements.

Concerns About Quantum Threat Accelerate 

Meanwhile, the commentary comes amid a recent Google report that suggests that rapid advances in quantum computing could eventually give malicious actors tools to break widely used encryption methods.

Notably, most cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, Bitcoin, and the XRP Ledger, rely on Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) to secure transactions and verify asset ownership. 

According to a Google report, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running an optimized version of Shor’s algorithm could theoretically break 256-bit ECDSA encryption in minutes, raising alarms across the crypto industry. 

Binance’s CZ Proposes Solution, But Doubts Remain 

Reacting, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) recently downplayed fears about quantum computing. He argues that cryptocurrencies can adapt by upgrading to quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms if necessary. 

Following his commentary, experts like Vet have begun questioning whether Bitcoin could coordinate a network-wide transition to quantum-resistant cryptography if such a threat becomes imminent. 

While he doubts Bitcoin’s ability to reach consensus due to social constraints, he remains confident that XRPL validators would support upgrades designed to strengthen the network.

His commentary highlights a key difference between major blockchain ecosystems, particularly their approach to protocol governance. For context, Bitcoin prioritizes extreme stability and conservative upgrades, which can slow major changes and make achieving social consensus harder. 

XRPL Quick Upgrade 

By contrast, the XRP Ledger has historically implemented amendments more frequently to improve efficiency, scalability, and security. For example, in February, security researcher Pranamya Keshkamat discovered a critical flaw in the network’s proposed batch amendment that could have allowed attackers to drain users’ XRP.

After identifying the issue, the researcher alerted XRPL Labs before the upgrade went live. In response, the development team quickly urged dUNL validators to vote against the amendment. They also released an immediate patch to turn off the vulnerability and later deployed a corrected version of the upgrade. 

Meanwhile, the XRP Ledger has taken proactive steps to counter the quantum threat, including early testing of post-quantum ML-DSA signatures, deploying a test environment for quantum-resistant algorithms, and enabling built-in protocol-level key rotation. 

XRP Proves More Adaptable as Bitcoin Faces “Social Test” Over Quantum Upgrade, Says XRPL Validator

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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XRP Proves More Adaptable as Bitcoin Faces “Social Test” Over Quantum Upgrade, Says XRPL Validator

XRP Ledger validator Vet has raised fresh questions about whether Bitcoin can successfully navigate the coming shift to quantum-resistant security.

He argued that the challenge may be less technical and more about community consensus.

Key Points

  • XRP validator Vet says Bitcoin faces a “social test” in adopting quantum-resistant security solutions.
  • Bitcoin developers remain split on whether to use a soft fork for quantum-resistant upgrades.
  • Larger quantum-safe signatures could reduce transactions per block and impact miner fees.
  • Vet argues XRP Ledger is more adaptable, with smoother upgrades and less community friction.

Bitcoin Quantum Path May Trigger Another “Civil War”

Reacting to new research from Google, Vet pointed to growing divisions within the Bitcoin community over how to respond to quantum threats. He suggested that a hard fork may ultimately be unavoidable.

Meanwhile, Vet noted that discussions highlighted in the research show Bitcoin developers and stakeholders remain split on whether a soft fork is even feasible for implementing quantum-resistant cryptography.

He explained that even if they agree on a solution, current quantum-safe signatures would make transactions larger, meaning fewer transactions could fit into each block. Increasing the block size to address this would likely reopen long-standing debates within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

The issue becomes more complex as miner rewards continue to shrink over time, making transaction fees increasingly important. If fewer transactions can be processed, miners could earn less, raising concerns about the network’s long-term sustainability.

“Social Consensus Is the Real Bottleneck”

Community voices echoed similar concerns. XRP commentator X Finance Bull noted that while coding solutions may exist, achieving social consensus within the Bitcoin community is the hardest part.

Another user raised concerns about dormant wallets, including those linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, and questioned whether such funds could become vulnerable to a quantum attack.

Vet responded that outcomes would depend on the chosen solution, including whether inactive funds might eventually be frozen or require movement before a set deadline.

XRP as More Flexible in Protocol Evolution

In contrast, Vet expressed confidence in the adaptability of the XRP ecosystem. He argued that the XRP Ledger has a track record of implementing protocol improvements more smoothly.

He suggested that this culture of iterative upgrades could make it easier for XRP to adopt quantum-resistant technologies without the same level of social friction.

Defining Moment for Bitcoin

Industry voices also pointed to a dilemma facing Bitcoin. Improving security with larger cryptographic signatures could slow the network and reduce fees, while increasing block size could revive past disagreements within the community.

This creates a “triple problem”: Bitcoin must balance security, speed, and miner incentives, especially as block rewards continue to decline.

As quantum computing becomes more realistic, the issue is growing more urgent. The main question is no longer whether Bitcoin can upgrade, but whether its community can agree on the best way forward.

Cardano MACD and Huge Base Setting Up ADA for Another Explosive Move

Elendu Benedict
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Cardano MACD and Huge Base Setting Up ADA for Another Explosive Move

Cardano is gearing up for another impulsive move to unprecedented prices, with support from a large base and bullish MACD divergence.

The broader crypto market has recovered slightly over the past 24 hours, with Cardano (ADA) not left out. The 13th largest cryptocurrency by market cap has increased by 3.5% in this timeframe to $0.252, bringing its growth over the past week to 5.3%.

From a technical perspective, two factors are aligning for ADA. If history repeats, then the current price could be considered an undervaluation compared to the coin’s growth prospects.

Key Points

  • Cardano is setting up for another huge upside move backed by two distinct bullish developments on the ADA/USDT 3D chart.
  • One notable point cited is the “huge base” being set up, which has cushioned weak price action for years.
  • ADA formed a similar base between 2019 and 2020, leading up to the massive rally to the 2021 peak.
  • The MACD indicator is also forming a base, with a similar move preceding the 2020/2021 price expansion.
  • Analysis highlights the possibility of a move toward $10 for ADA.

Cardano Forms Large Base

Analyst Javon Marks noted in a March 31 tweet that Cardano is setting up for another huge upside move. To back this projection, the analyst highlighted two distinct bullish developments on the ADA/USDT 3D chart.

One of the notable points cited is the “huge base” that is being set up. An accompanying chart provides more context, showing that Cardano has been forming a massive support area for several years now.

Cardano Huge Base/Javon Marks
Cardano Huge Base/Javon Marks

Notably, this base cushioned the bearish price action as the coin fell from its current ATH of $3.10 in 2021. From the high, ADA dropped by over 90% to $0.239 in December 2022, then quickly rebounded. The coin retested this support again in June 2023, dipping to $0.220 before a similar recovery kicked in.

This local support has since served as a bottoming area, with subsequent revisits followed by a notable bounce. Marks believes that holding this base is bullish, especially given historical precedent.

For context, ADA formed a similar base between 2019 and 2020, leading up to the massive rally to the 2021 peak. It last touched this base when it reached the March 2020 low of $0.0177, and what followed was an over 14,705% increase to $3.10.

Bullish MACD Trend

Marks further identified the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) trend. Notably, the indicator is also forming a base, as seen in the price, with a similar move preceding the 2020/2021 price expansion.

Meanwhile, a bullish divergence is also very obvious. While ADA’s price has made lower lows along the base, the MACD line has made higher lows. This divergence indicates that while the asset’s price is weak, bears are losing control of the market, and selling pressure is waning.

A combination of its hold above this long-term base and the bullish divergence could set Cardano up for another price expansion. Marks’ chart highlighted the possibility of a move toward $10 for ADA, representing a 3,868% increase from the current market price.

Gemini Just Burned $128,000,000 RLUSD on XRPL, as Supply Drops to $189M

Sam Wisdom Raphael
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Gemini Just Burned $128,000,000 RLUSD on XRPL, as Supply Drops to $189M

Gemini has carried out a large redemption of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, burning $128 million worth of RLUSD on the XRP Ledger. 

The update came from Vet, an XRPL validator, who explained that Gemini redeemed the funds by burning RLUSD tokens to take back the liquidity it originally used to mint them with Ripple.

Key Points

  • Gemini burned $128 million RLUSD on XRPL in two transactions ($79M and $49M) on March 31.
  • The burn represents a standard redemption process where RLUSD is destroyed to retrieve fiat liquidity from Ripple.
  • Ripple minted 10 million RLUSD on Ethereum shortly after the XRPL-based burns.
  • RLUSD burns have reached $233.8 million in the past week, far exceeding $44 million minted.
  • The RLUSD supply on XRPL has dropped to $189 million, while Ethereum now holds over $1 billion worth of RLUSD.

On-Chain Data Shows How the RLUSD Funds Moved

In an X post, Vet clarified that this process is a normal part of how stablecoins work. Notably, when a company burns tokens, it is simply exchanging them for the same value in fiat currency from the issuer. In this case, Gemini appears to be adjusting its liquidity instead of reacting to anything unusual.

On-chain shows how Gemini handled the $128 million redemption on March 31. First, a Gemini-linked address sent $79 million in RLUSD at 2:15 PM UTC to the address “rGp…qxA.” 

Just eight minutes later, the address forwarded the funds to another wallet, “r3N…a64,” which then burned the tokens at 2:23 PM UTC, redeeming $79 million in fiat.

Later that day, Gemini repeated the same process with $49 million in RLUSD at 5:32 PM UTC. The funds again went to “rGp…qxA,” which quickly passed them to “r3N…a64.” This second batch was burned at 6:36 PM UTC, returning $49 million in fiat.

Why Large RLUSD Burns Happen

Large burns like this are common in stablecoin systems such as RLUSD. Companies use them to manage liquidity after settlements, meet user withdrawal demands, or adjust their positions after trading activity. They also help handle payment flows, especially from card transactions or exchange usage.

For context, in November 2025, Ripple announced a partnership with Gemini at the 2025 Ripple Swell conference in New York. 

The company teamed up with Mastercard and WebBank, which issues the Gemini Credit Card, to test RLUSD for settling traditional credit card payments on the XRPL. The goal was to connect blockchain systems with everyday financial services.

Gemini Insolvency Rumors

After the burn, some members of the XRP community questioned whether the move had links to rumors about Gemini’s financial health. These concerns were partly driven by comments from EasyA co-founder, Dom Kwok, who has persistently discussed the company’s recent struggles.

The concerns come from several issues, including a reported $583 million net loss in 2025, a class-action lawsuit over its 2025 IPO, and ongoing restructuring under its “Gemini 2.0” plan.

Despite the challenges, Gemini is still operating as usual. Notably, its main exchange is running, it has not entered bankruptcy or receivership, and users can still access their funds. 

The SEC also dropped its case related to Gemini Earn after investors were fully repaid through the Genesis bankruptcy process. So while concerns exist, there is no confirmed insolvency.

RLUSD Supply Drops on XRPL

Meanwhile, soon after the burn activity on XRPL, Ripple minted 10 million RLUSD on Ethereum at 9:14 PM UTC on March 31. Over the past week, total RLUSD minting reached $44 million, including $30 million on Ethereum and $14 million on XRPL.

However, during the same period, RLUSD burns totaled $233.8 million, with $130 million burned on XRPL and $103.8 million on Ethereum. Before this latest activity, XRPL had only recorded a small burn of $1.9 million on March 26.

Due to the difference between burning and minting, the supply on XRPL has dropped. The network now holds $189 million worth of RLUSD, while Ethereum holds over $1 billion, based on Etherscan data. Also, RLUSD has moved from eighth to ninth place among the largest stablecoins by market value at the time of reporting.

Cardano Founder Accuses Coinbase of Blocking Crypto Clarity Act Passage

Lele Jima
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0
Cardano Founder Accuses Coinbase of Blocking Crypto Clarity Act Passage

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has publicly criticized Coinbase for allegedly obstructing progress on the Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act. 

According to Hoskinson, Coinbase is prioritizing stablecoin yields over broader regulatory clarity for the crypto industry. The remarks highlight growing tensions in the crypto sector as policymakers debate how to regulate digital assets in the United States.

Key Points

  • Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson claims Coinbase is prioritizing stablecoin yield programs instead of broader regulatory clarity for the crypto industry.
  • He said Coinbase is less focused on DeFi restrictions or clarifying whether tokens should be classified as securities.
  • Coinbase has repeatedly pushed back against the Clarity Act, particularly the stablecoin yield-restriction provision.
  • Stablecoins are a major revenue driver for Coinbase, especially through its involvement with USDC.

Coinbase Is Holding Clarity Act Passage: Cardano Founder

During a recent Meme & Markets podcast, Hoskinson claimed that Coinbase’s objections to the legislation stem primarily from restrictions on stablecoin reward programs rather than concerns about how digital assets should be regulated.

He noted that while Coinbase has framed the issue as a fight to protect consumer access to yield, the company’s real concern is maintaining returns on stablecoin balances.

According to Hoskinson, Coinbase does not care about DeFi restrictions or whether tokens are securities. Consequently, he alleged that the company is stalling the passage of the Clarity Act for stablecoin yields.

Senate Revisions Spark Industry Tension

The controversy stems from changes introduced after the bill moved from the House of Representatives to the Senate last year.

The House originally passed the Clarity Act in July 2025 as part of an effort to define the regulatory status of cryptocurrencies. The legislation sought to clarify whether digital tokens should be regulated as securities by the SEC or as commodities by the CFTC.

However, Senate lawmakers later introduced additional provisions in the Senate Banking Committee version, including restrictions on stablecoin yields and expanded reporting requirements for decentralized finance platforms.

These changes quickly sparked friction between crypto firms and traditional banking lobbyists. Negotiations eventually led to a compromise backed by lawmakers and the White House that effectively bans passive yield payments on stablecoin balances. This move aligns with long-standing concerns from the banking sector.

Coinbase Pushes Back

Meanwhile, Coinbase has opposed the Senate provisions. The exchange has raised several objections, including concerns about potential surveillance of DeFi activity, restrictions on tokenized equity instruments, and limitations on stablecoin rewards.

However, Hoskinson argues that stablecoin yields remain the core issue for Coinbase. He suggested the company’s stance reflects the financial importance of such programs to its business model.

Notably, stablecoins have become a major revenue driver for Coinbase through its relationship with the USDC ecosystem. Reports indicate that income generated from reserves tied to USDC contributed significantly to the company’s earnings, with Coinbase’s share of revenue estimated at around $1.35 billion in 2025.

As a result of this financial exposure, any regulation that restricts stablecoin yields could directly affect the exchange’s profitability.

Meanwhile, the Clarity Act cleared a markup hearing in the Senate Agriculture Committee in January. The Banking Committee, which initially postponed its markup session, now plans to resume the process later this month.

As momentum builds, prominent entities, including JPMorgan, believe the Clarity Act will pass before the end of the year.

XRP Is the Google of Crypto and We’re Still in 2003: Analyst

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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XRP Is the Google of Crypto and We’re Still in 2003: Analyst

XRP holders are comparing its current stage to the early days of the internet, arguing that the asset could follow the path of tech giants that dominated their industries.

Xaif Crypto, a well-known XRP commentator, recently sparked the discussion on X. Specifically, he stated that XRP is “the Google of crypto and we’re still in 2003.”

The view suggests that the digital asset is still in its early adoption phase despite its growing use cases. He added that once users experience XRP-based payments, they rarely return to traditional systems, drawing a comparison to how Gmail overtook Hotmail in the early days of the internet.

Key Points

  • Analyst likens XRP to Google in 2003, arguing it’s still early despite rising real-world adoption and use cases.
  • Supporters believe XRP could become a core financial layer, similar to how tech giants dominated the early internet.
  • Cross-border payments, projected to hit $290T by 2030, represent a major growth opportunity for XRP.
  • Ripple’s banking push and utility focus bolster the view that XRP could be a long-term crypto pillar.

XRP Early-Stage Narrative

The comparison reflects a popular belief among supporters that XRP could become a foundational layer for global finance, much like Google became a cornerstone of the internet.

According to this perspective, the crypto market today mirrors the early 2000s, when multiple competing platforms existed, but only a few eventually dominated. Proponents argue XRP is positioning itself as one of those long-term winners, particularly in the payments sector.

Cross-Border Payments as Key Opportunity

These claims from Xaif came in response to comments from crypto YouTuber Troy Black. Specifically, he pointed to the massive scale of the cross-border payments industry as a major opportunity for XRP.

He noted that global cross-border transactions reached approximately $190 trillion in 2023 and could expand to $290 trillion by 2030. This projected $100 trillion increase highlights a vast market where faster and cheaper solutions could gain significant traction.

Black emphasized that any network capable of improving transaction speed while reducing fees would have a substantial advantage. In this context, XRP’s design for near-instant settlement and low-cost transfers positions it as a potential contender in reshaping international payments.

Ripple’s Banking Ambitions Add Momentum

Another factor fueling optimism is Ripple’s ongoing deeper integration with traditional finance. The company has applied for a banking license, a step that could allow it to settle payments directly with central bank systems such as the Federal Reserve.

Such a development could significantly strengthen XRP’s role in financial infrastructure, bridging the gap between crypto networks and institutional finance.

“Pillar” in the Crypto Economy

Black also framed XRP as one of the potential “pillars” of the crypto industry, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. He compared the current landscape to the early internet era, when companies like Google and Yahoo competed for dominance, but only a few maintained long-term relevance.

While the comparison remains speculative, the idea underscores the belief among XRP supporters that the asset’s real-world utility, particularly in payments, could help it stand the test of time.

Berkshire Hathaway Comparison

In December 2024, Wall Street analyst Linda Jones argued that selling XRP now is like selling Berkshire Hathaway in its early days, urging investors to stay patient. She stressed XRP is not a meme coin but a utility-driven asset with long-term potential, especially in cross-border payments.

Despite volatility, market sentiment and strong past gains reinforce her view that holding XRP could yield significant future returns.

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