The Crypto Basic

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, maintains a long-term bullish view on Bitcoin but says he will hold off investing until U.S. monetary policy loosens.

Key Points

• Hayes said he would not invest in Bitcoin right now, citing geopolitical uncertainty.
• Instead, the BitMEX co-founder plans to buy Bitcoin once the U.S. Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy.
• Hayes warned that a prolonged US-Iran war could push Bitcoin below $60,000, potentially triggering liquidations.
• Despite short-term caution, he maintains a $250,000 Bitcoin price prediction by 2026.

Hayes Advises Patience Amid Market Uncertainty

In a recent episode of the Coin Stories podcast, Hayes explained that he would not invest a single dollar in Bitcoin at the current moment. He emphasized a cautious approach, citing ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, as a potential source of market instability.

Hayes suggested that these tensions might force the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase liquidity, which could ultimately impact both equities and cryptocurrencies. He made it clear that his investment decisions would closely follow central bank actions rather than short-term market movements.

Timing Bitcoin Purchases Around Monetary Policy

Hayes stressed that money printing, rather than war itself, is the key driver for Bitcoin’s long-term growth. He indicated he would start acquiring Bitcoin once central banks begin easing monetary policy and expanding liquidity.

While taking a cautious stance in the short term, Hayes reaffirmed his optimism for the cryptocurrency. Specifically, he believes Bitcoin will eventually surpass $100,000, suggesting the current period of lower prices may be temporary.

Current Market Snapshot

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading near $69,609, down 45% from its October 2025 high of $126,080. 

Hayes warned that prolonged geopolitical tensions could push prices below $60,000, potentially creating a cascade of liquidations. Bitcoin had briefly dipped to this level on February 6, 2026, before recovering modestly.

This snapshot illustrates the volatility Hayes is closely monitoring, reinforcing his decision to wait for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve before investing.

Long-Term Price Predictions Remain Strong

Despite near-term uncertainties, Hayes remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory and projects it will reach $500K by 2026. He reiterated this forecast earlier this month, showing continued faith in the cryptocurrency’s growth potential.

Additionally, other market analysts, including Michaël van de Poppe, have highlighted that a strong performance in the Nasdaq could provide additional support for Bitcoin and altcoins, suggesting positive momentum may be on the horizon.

Navigating Volatility with a Strategic Approach

Hayes’ perspective balances optimism with prudence. While he anticipates substantial long-term gains, he underscores that investors should remain attentive to central bank policies and global geopolitical developments.

For now, Hayes recommends a careful wait-and-see approach, allowing monetary policy signals to guide strategic Bitcoin investments. His approach highlights the importance of timing and macroeconomic context in navigating the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin continues to follow a long-term structural pattern that has shaped previous market cycles and remains bullish as long as this sustains.

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is down 44% from its all-time high of $126,200 in October, a move that has rippled through the broader market. However, this could be part of a broader bullish picture, one that could see BTC march on to unprecedented prices in the long term.

Key Points

• On the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin’s price movement still fits within a broad ascending channel that has guided its macro trajectory for years.
• Currently, Bitcoin trades at the midpoint of this long-term structure, an area historically marked with sharp corrections during bull markets.
• Previous cycles show that declines of roughly 15% to 36% have appeared during strong market phases at the midpoint without marking the end of the cycle.
• If the ascending channel structure continues to guide price behavior, then a reversal to the next stage of the cycle remains intact.
• The long-term support zone between $38,000 and $43,000 stands out as an important structural area, and breaking below would spark deeper declines.

Bitcoin Within Long-Term Ascending Channel

An analytical exposition from market technician EGRAG Crypto highlighted that, on the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin’s price movement still fits within a broad ascending channel that has guided its macro trajectory for years.

An accompanying chart confirms this, showing that BTC has been in this wedge since 2014. Notably, this channel has historically acted as a framework for both market expansions and corrections, providing a reference for where major turning points tend to appear.

Throughout earlier cycles, Bitcoin repeatedly found support near the lower boundary of the channel before beginning a new expansion phase. In contrast, major upward movements have typically slowed or reversed when the price approached the upper boundary. 

Currently, Bitcoin trades at the midpoint of this long-term structure, suggesting the broader bullish trend remains intact unless the coin breaks below the channel’s lower boundary.

Mid-Cycle Corrections Part of the Historical Pattern

Although the broader trend has remained upward across four cycles, Bitcoin has frequently experienced sharp corrections during bull markets. These pullbacks have often occurred even while the long-term structure stayed bullish.

Previous cycles show that declines of roughly 15% to 36% have appeared during strong market phases without marking the end of the cycle. For context, Bitcoin corrected by 15% in 2017 and by 36% in 2021, and a similar move could occur this cycle.

Because of this history, EGRAG views deep mid-cycle corrections as part of a long-standing market pattern rather than immediate signs of a long-term top.

Bitcoin Long-Term Target and Bullish Invalidation

If the ascending channel structure continues to guide price behavior, then a reversal to the next stage of the cycle remains intact. Under this framework, the next major price uptrend appears at the psychological $100,000 price mark, aligning with the 1.272 Fibonacci level.

The next level is $123,000, followed by a higher swing to $167,000, a new all-time high. These levels correspond to the 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions, respectively. 

Meanwhile, the long-term support zone between $38,000 and $43,000 stands out as an important structural area. Breaking below this region would put Bitcoin under severe pressure, with the next target at the channel’s lower support near $14,000.

EGRAG also highlighted two possible price trends for BTC from here. One probable path is to hold the current support within a descending channel, then target a rebound to $74,000, then to $100,000, and subsequently to $123,000. However, the alternative path is a deeper corrective phase to revisit the $38,000 to $43,000 support before the next bullish phase begins.

The Bitcoin funding rate 30-day percentile has crashed to a 3-year low of 6%, indicating increased short positions in the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) has had a difficult 2025, dropping 18% since the year began amid the downtrend that has persisted since Q4 2025. However, a small recovery has emerged recently, with tensions in the Middle East helping push prices up 0.48% over the past month to $71,500.

Interestingly, amid the ongoing market turbulence, Bitcoin’s funding rate 30-day percentile has dropped to just 6%, the lowest level since early 2023, indicating that only 6% of the past 30 days recorded funding rates lower than today.

Key Points

• Bitcoin has dropped 18% year-to-date despite a 0.48% recovery in the past month to trade for $71,500 at the time of writing.
• Amid the downtrend, the funding rate 30-day percentile has fallen to 6%, representing the most extreme bearish positioning since 2023.
• This means only 6% in the last 30 days witnessed funding rates lower than what the market currently records.
• Daily average funding shifted from +0.005% in January to -0.003% in February and worsened to -0.004% in March.
• Extreme one-sided positioning at this level historically resolves sharply rather than gradually, increasing the risk of a short squeeze if prices begin to rise.

Bitcoin Funding Rate 30D Percentile Hits 6%

Verified CryptoQuant analyst Leo Ruga recently confirmed this data as Bitcoin prices eye a recovery push. According to him, the 30-day percentile compares today’s funding rate against all readings from the previous 30 days. 

Sitting at 6% indicates that almost every single day in the last month had higher funding than the current level. This essentially confirms that traders in the derivatives market have positioned heavily on the bearish side and have held that position.

Specifically, January averaged a daily funding rate of +0.005%, with the percentile holding above 80% for most of that month, a period when longs dominated and collected payments. 

In February, the trend changed, with the average daily Bitcoin funding rate falling to -0.003%. March has worsened further, averaging -0.004%. Of the last 30 days, 25 sessions closed with negative funding. 

February 6 saw the steepest single-day reading at -0.021%, while February 25, February 28, and March 4 all recorded readings worse than -0.01%. According to Ruga, each wave of negative pressure has returned stronger instead of fading.

How Could the Bitcoin Price React?

Ruga pointed out that the funding rate percentile has not been this low since early 2023, nearly three years ago. The 6% reading shows that 94% of the past 30 days produced higher funding rates than today. Simply put, short positions have become extremely common right now, representing the overwhelming consensus across the market.

This could increase the risk of a short squeeze if Bitcoin’s price sees slight upticks, possibly leading to a higher uptrend. However, the market analyst stressed that such suppressed funding does not indicate an exact turning point. Notably, it can stay low for weeks before anything changes. 

What it does indicate is that positioning has reached an extreme, and when the market gets this one-sided, the eventual unwind tends to be sharp, not gradual. According to Ruga, when the majority of traders agree on direction, that is often when the market moves against them.

Analysts on Bitcoin’s Next Direction

Meanwhile, market watcher Cryptolimbo recently highlighted Bitcoin’s impressive resilience amid the conflicts in the Middle East. He pointed out that amid the surge in oil prices, the S&P 500 had its worst week since October, the Nasdaq declined sharply, and gold swung $300 in both directions. 

Through all of this, Bitcoin moved modestly, falling from $67,000 to $65,000 before recovering to $69,000. Now, it trades above $71,000. Cryptolimbo stressed that Bitcoin’s relationship with other assets appears to have changed, as it held steady through a geopolitical conflict, an oil price shock, and a weak jobs report without a significant decline.

However, some analysts still believe the downtrend could intensify from here. Market commentator Chiefy recently warned that Bitcoin may be entering what he calls the final accumulation zone, with his chart analysis pointing to a potential drop to $45,000 within 10 days.

Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss, the billionaire co-founders of Gemini, recently transferred more than 1,700 Bitcoin to the trading platform. 

The transaction, which occurred over the past week, has fueled speculation that the crypto billionaires may be preparing to sell part of their Bitcoin holdings.

Key Points 

• Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss transferred 1,750 Bitcoin to hot wallets on Gemini, fueling speculation that the billionaires may be preparing to sell part of their holdings.
• The brothers have already moved over 2,500 BTC to Gemini in recent weeks, suggesting a continued trend of trimming their Bitcoin holdings.
• Despite these transfers, the twins still hold more than $600 million worth of Bitcoin.
• Their massive Bitcoin stake dates back to 2013, when they invested about $11 million in BTC.

Winklevoss Brothers Move 1,750 Bitcoin to Gemini 

According to blockchain data from Arkham Intelligence, a wallet linked to the Winklevoss twins moved roughly 1,750 BTC, worth about $130 million, to a Gemini hot wallet since last week.

The transfers occurred in two transactions. First, the wallet sent a small test transaction of 0.00191 BTC. Shortly afterward, it moved the remaining 1,750 BTC in a larger transfer. 

Typically, transfers to exchange hot wallets precede trading activity, which has led analysts to speculate that the twins could be preparing to sell part of their Bitcoin holdings. However, it remains unclear whether the billionaires have already sold the Bitcoin or moved the funds to the exchange for other purposes. 

Initial Investment in Bitcoin 

Meanwhile, the Winklevoss twins rose to prominence in the crypto industry after investing heavily in Bitcoin during its early years. In 2013, they reportedly invested about $11 million in Bitcoin when it traded at around $120. 

The purchase was partly funded with proceeds from a $65 million settlement with Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook. That investment positioned them among the largest individual Bitcoin holders at the time.

Over the years, the twins have periodically trimmed their holdings. For instance, reports indicate that they sold portions of their Bitcoin to help launch the Gemini crypto exchange. In addition, they have used some of their crypto wealth for political donations. In 2024, both brothers donated $1 million each to Donald Trump during the U.S. presidential campaign cycle.

Current Holdings 

More recently, their wallet activity suggests continued selling. Over the past month, addresses linked to the twins have transferred more than 2,500 BTC to Gemini, while receiving only 136 BTC during the same period.

Despite these sales, the Winklevoss twins remain significant crypto holders. At press time, their known wallet held about 8,757 BTC, valued at roughly $619 million, underscoring their continued exposure to Bitcoin. Additionally, they maintain a sizable position in Ethereum, holding approximately 70,588 ETH, valued at approximately $145 million. 

Their latest transaction comes amid heightened volatility in the crypto market. Last week, Bitcoin traded around $66,000 amid intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, the asset has since rebounded above the $70,000 level as market sentiment improved. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $70,700, up 0.45% over the past 24 hours.