The Crypto Basic

XRP may be gearing up for a rally to $18 as market data confirms the completion of the corrective Wave 4 and an imminent start to Wave 5.

Notably, XRP has been trading within a 5-phase Elliott Wave structure since the 2022 bottom triggered by the Terra ecosystem collapse. Data indicates that the price now sits within a corrective Wave 4, which may soon end. Interestingly, the forthcoming Wave 5 could push the XRP price to a peak of $18.

Key Points

• XRP has continued to trade within an Elliott Wave structure that started forming after the 2022 bottom of $0.28.
• While the Wave 3 of the structure ended with the XRP rally to $3.4 by January 2025, the Wave 4 began when XRP collapsed from this $3.4 peak.
• XRP still trades within this corrective Wave 4 phase, but market data indicates that it may soon be completed.
• With Wave 5 about to begin, XRP could leverage the momentum for a recovery from the ongoing downtrend, targeting up to $18.

The XRP Elliott Wave Structure

Market expert Dark Defender first called attention to this market structure in a recent analysis, as XRP records a relief bounce from the ongoing downtrend. For context, XRP has been in a downward spiral after dropping from the $3.66 peak of July 2025, with this downtrend aligning with Wave 4 of the 5-phase Elliott Wave structure.

For context, Wave 1 began as XRP recovered from the $0.28 bottom in June 2022 and ended at the $0.93 high in July 2023. Meanwhile, Wave 2 began as XRP corrected from $0.93 to $0.38 by July 2024. As for Wave 3, it started amid the rebound from $0.38 to the $3.4 high of January 2025. 

Then, the current Wave 4 started as XRP witnessed a correction from $3.4. While this Wave played out, XRP recorded an ABC structure, dropping to a low of $1.61 in April 2025, recovering to an all-time high of $3.66 by July 2025, and then dropping to the current lows around $1.4. This low may now have marked the end of both the ABC correction and the broader Wave 4.

Wave 5 Targets $18

If the current position represents the end of Wave 4, Dark Defender suggests that Wave 5 may soon begin. Notably, Wave 5 typically involves a recovery from the downtrend witnessed in the fourth wave. As a result, the market analyst believes XRP could engineer a massive upsurge during Wave 5.

Once XRP embarks on this upward journey, the first target spotlighted by Dark Defender rests on the $1.88 price mark, aligning with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension. From here, the next area of interest lies in the $5.86 region, which would represent a new all-time high for XRP, in line with the Fibonacci 261.80% extension.

Meanwhile, the analyst identified $18.22 as the ultimate Wave 5 target, along the 361.80% Fibonacci extension. From the current price of $1.45, XRP would have to rally 1,156% to claim the $18.22 price.

Amid the ongoing XRP price downturn, the price must hold above the upper band of the Gaussian Channel to keep the $13 dream alive.

XRP has stayed under heavy selling pressure, dropping more than 51% since the current downtrend started in Q4 2025. The token now trades at $1.39 after a steady decline that began in October 2025 and stretched into early February 2026. 

Sellers have stayed in control for months, pushing the price lower step by step. As XRP now moves sideways in a bearish setup, investors feel uncertain about where it could head next. Amid the uncertainty, data has revealed the level that must hold for the upside rally to targets such as $13 to remain in play.

Key Points

• XRP surged to a new all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025 after breaking out of a 7-year symmetrical triangle in late 2024.
• The token has since dropped 61%, slumping to $1.39 amid sustained bearish pressure that has lasted for five months.
• Price recorded a 2026 low of $1.12 in early February, flipping this area from previous resistance to support.
• Amid the downturn, market data shows XRP must hold above the $1.17 Upper Gaussian Channel to keep upside projections toward $8 and $13 in play.
• A decisive break below $1.17 could trigger a pullback toward the mid Gaussian Channel around $0.73.
• Previous retests of the mid-Gaussian Channel have historically marked major bottoms before strong upward expansions.

The Breakout That Sent XRP to $3.66

This analysis came from Chart Nerd, who recently presented what he called a data-driven exposition of the current market position, free from the everyday noise. Notably, he called attention to a multi-year fractal pattern that showed a clear breakout in late 2024. 

During this period, XRP broke above long-standing descending resistance that had capped price action for years. The move pushed the price above the upper trendline of a 7-year symmetrical triangle, indicating that it had engineered a major change in its long-term structure.

After the November 2024 surge, XRP rallied to $3.66 by July 2025, marking a new all-time high. However, that peak was followed by steady selling pressure. Bears dragged the price down to $1.39, where it currently trades, representing a 61% drop from the ATH.

Why the $1.12 and $1.17 Levels Matter

Chart Nerd explained that the decline from the July 2025 high created what he sees as a backtest of the previous breakout zone. The area that once acted as resistance before the November 2024 rally has now turned into support. For context, amid the downtrend, XRP touched the $1.12 area and rebounded, confirming that buyers are trying to defend it as support.

Meanwhile, XRP dropped the Upper regression band of the Gaussian Channel at $1.17. This bolsters the support at this level. According to Chart Nerd, as long as XRP stays above the $1.17 Upper Gaussian Channel level, the short-term parabolic outlook remains in place. If the support holds, price projections still point toward $8 and even $13.

The Risk If $1.17 Fails

Chart Nerd called $1.17 the key line bulls must protect. Holding above it keeps the path open for a move toward $8 and $13. However, if XRP breaks clearly below $1.17, he expects a deeper pullback. In such a case, the price could drop to test the mid-Gaussian Channel area around $0.73 before any larger upside move begins.

A fall to $0.73 would also mean XRP re-enters the 8-year symmetrical triangle it previously broke out from. This move could highlight a multi-year ascending support point of control. However, past retests of the mid-Gaussian Channel regression band have marked every major bottom and accumulation phase before XRP launched into sharp upward moves.

Chart Nerd believes much of the recent damage has already happened. Still, he insists that $1.17 acts as the guardrail for any short-term recovery. If XRP holds that level, the dream of reaching $13 stays alive. If it loses that support, traders may have to prepare for a deeper move toward $0.73 before the next major expansion begins.

The XRP price action has shown an uncanny similarity with the Russell 2000 price behavior over a multi-year timeframe, pointing to an imminent breakout.

With XRP battling bearish pressure on the back of a broader market downturn recently exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, most market watchers insist that a recovery to higher prices would ensue once buyers return.

One of the factors contributing to the optimism in an imminent rebound is how XRP has continued to show similarities with the Russell 2000’s price action over the past eight years. If the correlation persists, the XRP price could break above a yellow trendline resistance above $2 to claim a new all-time high at $10.

Key Points

• XRP’s current downturn has deepened, as the token’s bearish close to February amid tensions in the Middle East marked its fifth monthly loss since October 2025.
• While the price has dropped nearly 52% since Q4 2025, market data shows XRP has shown similarities with the Russell 2000’s price action since 2018.
• Specifically, the Russell 2000’s price movements from November 2021 to March 2025 resemble XRP’s price action from January 2018 to the current period.
• Both charts feature a yellow horizontal resistance trendline on the weekly chart, which has acted as a roadblock to a price upsurge.
• The Russell 2000 broke above its yellow resistance in September 2025, and XRP could reach $10 if it follows the same direction.

XRP’s Downtrend Deepens

Austin, an XRP community commentator and market analyst, spotlighted these similarities as XRP continued to record steep declines. For context, XRP closed February with a 16.35% loss, marking its largest monthly loss since the current downturn began and representing a fifth monthly red candlestick.

Currently trading for $1.36, XRP has dropped nearly 3% over the last 24 hours as tensions in the Middle East develop into full-scale wars. Specifically, Iran has continued to retaliate after Israel-U.S. airstrikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28. Fears of further escalations have pushed investors to safer bets, impacting crypto assets like XRP.

The Russell 2000’s Price Action

However, Austin’s latest analysis suggested that despite the persistent declines, XRP may be eyeing a possible upward push. He called attention to XRP’s price action on the 1-week chart and the Russell 2000’s price action in the same timeframe, pointing out strange similarities between both assets.

For the uninitiated, the Russell 2000 is a stock market index that tracks about 2,000 small companies in the United States. Investors often use it to gauge how smaller businesses are performing in the market, unlike indexes that focus on big companies.

Market data shows that after the Russell 2000 dropped from the 2,463 all-time high in November 2021, it formed a yellow resistance trendline at this level and traded well below it until November 2024, when it retested and slightly broke above the trendline, reaching 2,471. 

However, from here, a deep pullback emerged, pushing the index to a low of 1,698 and marking the end of an ABC correction at the trendline. A recovery after the ABC correction ensued, allowing it to break above the trendline again, this time more decisively. The breakout took the Russell 2000 to a new all-time high of 2,738 in January 2026, and it still holds above the trendline.

XRP Following the Same Pattern

Interestingly, XRP has followed this exact pattern but over a longer period. Specifically, after XRP dropped from the $3.31 high in January 2018, it also formed a yellow horizontal trendline resistance at this peak, and traded below the peak for years until November 2024, when it broke out above the trendline and hit $3.6 by July 2025.

However, after the $3.6 peak, XRP entered a downtrend, which deepened from October 2025 amid a broader market collapse. Data shows that this downturn represents the C-wave of an ABC correction, similar to what the Russell 2000 index faced.

If XRP indeed continues to trail the Russell 2000, then the end of this downtrend would mark the conclusion of its C-wave, and a recovery would eventually break above the yellow horizontal trendline resistance. Notably, Austin suggests that XRP’s upsurge could push prices to $10, marking a 635% increase from the current price. However, this remains uncertain.

The XRP price could reach new heights if XRP maintained or increased its market dominance and the crypto market hit $7.5 trillion.

The global crypto market has had a rough year, with the total market cap (TOTAL) falling 21.88% in 2025 to land at $2.29 trillion. XRP has felt this pain more than most assets. Last year, XRP’s market dominance (XRP.D) actually grew 1.48% even though XRP’s price dropped 11% during that same stretch. 

However, 2026 has gone the other way entirely. This year, XRP’s market dominance has fallen 5.29% alongside a painful 26.7% price decline, meaning XRP has been losing ground not just in price but in its overall share of the crypto market.

Despite this, many analysts believe the market still has a long runway ahead, with the $7.5 trillion total market cap target still on the table. If this forecast materializes, how would it impact the XRP price if XRP maintains its current market dominance or sees an increase?

Key Points

• Chart data shows the global crypto market cap has fallen 21.88% this year to $2.29 trillion, while XRP has declined 26.7% in price and shed 5.29% of its market dominance.
• Bernstein analysts previously targeted a $7.5 trillion total crypto market cap for 2025.
• While this forecast failed to play out in 2025, some believe it could materialize in the future, and XRP could benefit from it.
• Data indicates that at a 4% dominance and a $7.5 trillion global crypto market cap, XRP’s price would rise to $4.92.
• At 8% dominance, the assessment puts XRP’s price at $9.84, while a 12% dominance level would push it to $14.75.
• Market data further places XRP’s price at $19.67 if its dominance climbs to 16% when the total crypto market cap hits $7.5 trillion.

Analysts Still Back the $7.5 Trillion Target

Market watcher Moon Lambo presented this assessment during a recent commentary, as the crypto market suffers an extended downturn. Despite the struggles, many well-known crypto analysts still see a bright future for the asset class overall. 

Back in 2024, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra predicted that the total crypto market cap would peak at $7.5 trillion sometime in 2025. This did not happen, as the market topped out at $4.2 trillion in 2025, about 78% short of their target.

However, some in the analyst community have not given up on the $7.5 trillion figure. They believe the target still stands, just on a longer timeline than originally expected. If the crypto market does eventually climb to that level, altcoins like XRP could gain massively. How much XRP gains, though, would come down to what its dominance looks like when the market gets there.

Historical Data Around XRP Dominance 

Amid these discussions, Moon Lambo recently presented an assessment of how XRP’s price could move if the global crypto market cap reaches $7.5 trillion, looking at several different dominance scenarios. 

He pointed out that for most of the past 16 months, XRP’s market dominance has stayed between 4% and 5.5%, though it has dipped a little lower recently to 3.63%. However, he considered a round figure of 4% to keep his evaluation straightforward.

Moon Lambo also highlighted XRP’s dominance history, noting that it peaked at around 32% in 2018. Nonetheless, this peak actually emerged in May 2017. The analyst said he does not expect that level to come back, not because anything is wrong with XRP, but because the market looked completely different back then. 

In 2017, only about 1,600 coins existed. Now, tens of thousands of coins show up on CoinMarketCap, and that naturally pulls each asset’s dominance percentage down. Conclusively, he argued that the crypto asset class is still small compared to what it will eventually become, and that this moment represents a window of opportunity for XRP holders with a long-term view.

XRP Price at Different Dominance Levels

Meanwhile, Moon Lambo’s chart presented figures behind each dominance scenario at the $7.5 trillion market cap level. Specifically, if XRP maintained the 4% dominance and the global crypto market hit $7.5 trillion, XRP’s price would climb from its current $1.35 to $4.92, a new all-time high.

If XRP’s dominance doubled to 8% at that same $7.5 trillion market cap, the chart shows the price reaching $9.84. For perspective, the last time XRP held 8% dominance was in April 2019. 

Pushing further, at 12% dominance, the chart puts XRP at $14.75, representing its first-ever two-digit price. XRP last sat at 12% dominance in January 2019, when it traded at just $0.3824, and the entire crypto market was worth only $132 billion.

At the most bullish level, a 16% dominance paired with a $7.5 trillion market cap would take XRP’s price to $19.67. To put this in context, XRP last recorded a 22.2% dominance in June 2017, shortly after sliding down from its all-time dominance peak of 32% in May 2017.