Analyst Shares How High XRP Could Reach as Wave 5 About to Start

XRP may be gearing up for a rally to $18 as market data confirms the completion of the corrective Wave 4 and an imminent start to Wave 5.

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Notably, XRP has been trading within a 5-phase Elliott Wave structure since the 2022 bottom triggered by the Terra ecosystem collapse. Data indicates that the price now sits within a corrective Wave 4, which may soon end. Interestingly, the forthcoming Wave 5 could push the XRP price to a peak of $18.

Key Points

• XRP has continued to trade within an Elliott Wave structure that started forming after the 2022 bottom of $0.28.
• While the Wave 3 of the structure ended with the XRP rally to $3.4 by January 2025, the Wave 4 began when XRP collapsed from this $3.4 peak.
• XRP still trades within this corrective Wave 4 phase, but market data indicates that it may soon be completed.
• With Wave 5 about to begin, XRP could leverage the momentum for a recovery from the ongoing downtrend, targeting up to $18.

The XRP Elliott Wave Structure

Market expert Dark Defender first called attention to this market structure in a recent analysis, as XRP records a relief bounce from the ongoing downtrend. For context, XRP has been in a downward spiral after dropping from the $3.66 peak of July 2025, with this downtrend aligning with Wave 4 of the 5-phase Elliott Wave structure.

For context, Wave 1 began as XRP recovered from the $0.28 bottom in June 2022 and ended at the $0.93 high in July 2023. Meanwhile, Wave 2 began as XRP corrected from $0.93 to $0.38 by July 2024. As for Wave 3, it started amid the rebound from $0.38 to the $3.4 high of January 2025. 

Then, the current Wave 4 started as XRP witnessed a correction from $3.4. While this Wave played out, XRP recorded an ABC structure, dropping to a low of $1.61 in April 2025, recovering to an all-time high of $3.66 by July 2025, and then dropping to the current lows around $1.4. This low may now have marked the end of both the ABC correction and the broader Wave 4.

Wave 5 Targets $18

If the current position represents the end of Wave 4, Dark Defender suggests that Wave 5 may soon begin. Notably, Wave 5 typically involves a recovery from the downtrend witnessed in the fourth wave. As a result, the market analyst believes XRP could engineer a massive upsurge during Wave 5.

Once XRP embarks on this upward journey, the first target spotlighted by Dark Defender rests on the $1.88 price mark, aligning with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension. From here, the next area of interest lies in the $5.86 region, which would represent a new all-time high for XRP, in line with the Fibonacci 261.80% extension.

Meanwhile, the analyst identified $18.22 as the ultimate Wave 5 target, along the 361.80% Fibonacci extension. From the current price of $1.45, XRP would have to rally 1,156% to claim the $18.22 price.