The Crypto Basic

The global cryptocurrency market staged a strong comeback on Wednesday, adding more than $170 billion in a single session.

Data from CoinGecko showed total market capitalization climbing roughly 8% to nearly $2.5 trillion, one of the strongest single-day advances in recent weeks. The move interrupted a steady decline that had weighed on digital assets since October.

Key Points

• The global crypto market surged $170 billion in one day, lifting total capitalization to ~$2.5 trillion.
• Bitcoin led the rebound, climbing over 5% to around $68,443 after slipping below $65,000.
• The rally came after news of a lawsuit against Jane Street over trades linked to the 2022 Terra-Luna collapse.
• Traders observed potential shifts in Bitcoin’s intraday 10 a.m. selling pattern following the legal announcement.

Bitcoin and Major Tokens Record Broad Gains

Bitcoin led the recovery, rising more than 5% to trade near $68,443. Notably, the rebound came just a day after Bitcoin had slipped below $65,000, only to reverse course. The crypto market has been in a major downturn since Bitcoin hit a record above $120,000 in October.

With the ongoing relief, gains quickly spread across the broader market. Ethereum advanced about 10% to $2,067, reflecting renewed risk appetite among large-cap tokens.

Meanwhile, other leading assets followed suit. XRP gained 7% to $1.45, while BNB rose 6.2% to $628.78. Solana added 8% to reach $87.75. In addition, Cardano posted one of the strongest advances, jumping 12% to $0.2952.

Even meme-focused tokens joined the rally. Dogecoin increased 9% to $0.10, and Shiba Inu edged up 4.5% to $0.00000619. Together, these moves underscored the broad-based nature of the recovery.

Lawsuit Against Jane Street Draws Attention

While price action dominated headlines, the underlying catalyst may have come from legal developments. Earlier this week, Jane Street became the target of a lawsuit brought by the administrator managing the liquidation of Terraform Labs.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the lawsuit alleges that the trading firm leveraged confidential information obtained from insiders at Terraform. Specifically, the filing claims that these trades were placed in advance of events that significantly affected the market, related to the downfall of Do Kwon’s Terra-Luna ecosystem.

The 2022 collapse of Terra-Luna is widely regarded as a landmark event in the cryptocurrency space, triggering a lengthy market downturn and shaking investor confidence. Consequently, any legal developments tied to this episode are closely watched by market participants.

Debate Over the 10 A.M. Selling Pattern

As news of the lawsuit circulated, attention shifted back to a long-debated intraday trading pattern. For months, some market participants have claimed that Bitcoin frequently faced concentrated selling pressure around 10 a.m. Eastern Time.

For instance, a crypto commentator known as Bark argued on X that Jane Street runs an automated strategy that consistently sells Bitcoin at that hour every day. The commentator suggested the pattern ceased immediately after the lawsuit became public.

Onchain analyst Nonzee echoed that view. In particular, the researcher noted that Bitcoin moved sharply higher during the same time window following the legal news.

However, there is no publicly documented proof that Jane Street consistently sold Bitcoin at a specific time each day. Despite this, social media discussions intensified as prices rallied.

For months, 10 AM meant one thing: the Jane Street dump.

Yesterday, they got hit with an insider trading lawsuit.

Today at 10 AM? Bitcoin rips higher instead.

Coincidence, or did the game just change? pic.twitter.com/W5t3i7Ubla

— Nonzee (@0xNonceSense) February 25, 2026

Adding to the debate, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, weighed in on X. He observed that the market appeared to be reacting as though a perceived source of selling pressure had disappeared. Meanwhile, he cautions that it remains unclear whether the shift is sufficient to sustain a recovery.

For now, the longer-term trajectory of digital assets remains unresolved. Still, Wednesday’s surge stands out as a meaningful inflection point after weeks of sustained downside pressure.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate amid uncertainties, but funding rates have turned negative, revealing the behavior of a chunk of market traders.

The Bitcoin price range between $62,000 and $66,000 has come with a noticeable shift in derivatives positioning, with futures data showing sellers still firmly in control. Yet beneath the surface, some metrics that typically appear near market bottoms are reemerging, raising the question of whether the current price action could ultimately set the stage for a price recovery.

Key Points

• Bitcoin continues to consolidate amid uncertainties, but funding rates across Bitcoin futures platforms have stayed deeply negative while its price hovers around the mid-$60,000s.
• When funding rates remain below zero for extended periods, it usually means participants are aggressively positioning for lower prices.
• This contrasts sharply with the previous major bottom near $80,000 in November 2025, when funding rates were positive.
• The BTC futures market had operated with elevated leverage for 16 months, particularly during the run toward Bitcoin’s last all-time high.
• However, repeated price pullbacks have triggered liquidations and reduced appetite for leverage, which is good for Bitcoin in the long term.

Negative Bitcoin Funding Shows Persistent Selling Pressure

According to verified CryptoQuant analyst Gaah, funding rates across Bitcoin futures platforms have remained deeply negative while its price hovers around the mid-$60,000s. That imbalance signals that short positions are paying longs, a structure that tends to form when sentiment is heavily tilted toward further downside.

Notably, funding rates serve as indicators for derivatives markets. When they remain below zero for extended periods, it usually means participants are aggressively positioning for lower prices.

Gaah noted that the dominant force since July 2025 has been steady selling. Buy-side limit orders have mostly served to absorb supply rather than meaningfully push prices higher. In other words, demand has been to defend key support levels rather than to catalyze a sustainable rebound.

Interestingly, this contrasts sharply with the previous major bottom near $80,000 in November 2025, when funding rates were positive. Back then, traders were still optimistic that BTC would shake off setbacks and target higher prices. Today, the sentiment is the opposite, with pessimism reflected in the skew of futures positions.

Selling pressure is also at its strongest level in three months, reinforcing the idea that the market is still working through excess supply. Bitcoin holders often face severe portfolio drawdown in such market phases, as prices persistently crumble.

Leverage Reset Healthy in the Long Term

The CryptoQuant analysis also highlighted that the BTC futures market had operated with elevated leverage for 16 months, particularly during the run toward Bitcoin’s last all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025. Since then, repeated price pullbacks have triggered liquidations and reduced appetite for leverage.

While price declines that trigger capitulation events may look destructive on the surface, they also flush out overleveraged positions. As leverage falls, the market becomes less vulnerable to sharp liquidation spikes during dips.

Gaah argues that this reset is constructive in the long term. With weaker hands pushed out and leverage cooling, the structure can gradually stabilize. Historically, this market phase has often preceded more sustainable Bitcoin recoveries.

In the meantime, the argument of when and where Bitcoin will bottom continues to dominate discussions. While this remains uncertain, technical analysis identifies the $60,000 support and $67,000 resistance as levels to watch depending on where the asset tilts in the near term.

The Bitcoin supply in loss has now risen close to the 50% baseline, a metric that marked the bottom for Bitcoin during the last three bear markets.

Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) has stayed on a downward path since the start of the year, adding to the decline that first began in October 2025. Since then, the market has erased more than $1.2 trillion in value, as investors search for signs of a possible bottom. 

Amid the uncertainty, recent data shows that nearly half of Bitcoin’s supply is now in loss, indicating that these coins now trade below their cost basis at the current price of around $66,500. Interestingly, this metric marked the bottom for Bitcoin each time in the past three cycles.

Key Points

• Bitcoin has fallen 47% from its $126,000 all-time high reached in October 2025, as prices slide to the $66,000 level.
• Amid the decline, nearly 50% of Bitcoin’s supply is now below cost, mirroring conditions that marked past cycle bottoms.
• Historical bottoms occurred at $15,479 in November 2022, $3,122 in December 2018, and $152 in January 2015, when 50% of the supply saw losses.
• The Fear and Greed Index currently reads 11, indicating Extreme Fear, similar to past bottom periods.
• UTXOs in profit have dropped from 99.89% in October 2025 to 56.4% today, indicating that most BTC tokens moved now face unrealized loss.

48.7% of Bitcoin Circulating Supply Now Below Cost Basis

Market analyst Crypto Rand was the first to highlight this development. He recently noted that 50% of Bitcoin’s total supply now sits at a loss, pointing out that the last three times this happened, it marked the exact bottom of the cycle.

Data from CryptoQuant corroborates the claim. Specifically, 48.7% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, or about 9.7 million BTC, currently sits below its cost basis at today’s price of around $66,500. This comes as Bitcoin has dropped 47% from its $126,000 all-time high reached in October 2025.

In past cycles, similar conditions appeared when Bitcoin traded at $15,479 in November 2022, $3,122 in December 2018, and $152 in January 2015. Each of those price levels later proved to be the bear market bottom, and strong recoveries followed every time.

Back then, large portions of supply sitting at a loss showed that many weak hands had already sold. As heavy losses forced capitulation, selling pressure eased, giving the market room to recover.

Fear Levels Match Previous Bitcoin Cycle Lows

Meanwhile, the market mood also shows deep pessimism. The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 11, which signals Extreme Fear. This reading is much lower than the 20 recorded during the November 2022 bottom and matches the 11 level from early December 2018, when Bitcoin formed its low during that cycle.

Also, on-chain data indicates that the share of UTXOs in profit has fallen from 99.89% in early October 2025 to 56.4% today. This figure also stood above 99% in November 2024. As recently as January 2026, this figure was still 84.6%, showing how quickly profitability across the network has dropped.

For the uninitiated, UTXOs in profit measure how many coins are worth more now than when they last moved. In simple terms, it shows how many holders are currently in profit. The steep decline suggests that pain has spread across the market in a short period of time.

Many analysts believe that when losses peak and forced sellers exit, the market often gets closer to a turning point. While this signal does not particularly guarantee a bottom, history shows that this area has mattered before.

Other Analysts See Signs of a Turnaround

Elsewhere, pseudonymous analyst Moustache also believes the bottom may already be in for both Bitcoin and altcoins. He noted that Bitcoin recently recorded its second-lowest weekly RSI in history, highlighting it as one reason behind his conclusion. 

Meanwhile, trader HK highlighted a price range between $60,000 and $42,000 as the most likely zone for Bitcoin to form its bottom. He argued that this area represents a place where experienced investors quietly build positions while others panic, citing historical data.