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Nearly 50% of Bitcoin Supply Now in Loss: This Marked the Bottom in the Last Three Cycles

Sam Wisdom Raphael
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Nearly 50% of Bitcoin Supply Now in Loss: This Marked the Bottom in the Last Three Cycles

The Bitcoin supply in loss has now risen close to the 50% baseline, a metric that marked the bottom for Bitcoin during the last three bear markets.

Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) has stayed on a downward path since the start of the year, adding to the decline that first began in October 2025. Since then, the market has erased more than $1.2 trillion in value, as investors search for signs of a possible bottom. 

Amid the uncertainty, recent data shows that nearly half of Bitcoin’s supply is now in loss, indicating that these coins now trade below their cost basis at the current price of around $66,500. Interestingly, this metric marked the bottom for Bitcoin each time in the past three cycles.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin has fallen 47% from its $126,000 all-time high reached in October 2025, as prices slide to the $66,000 level.
  • Amid the decline, nearly 50% of Bitcoin’s supply is now below cost, mirroring conditions that marked past cycle bottoms.
  • Historical bottoms occurred at $15,479 in November 2022, $3,122 in December 2018, and $152 in January 2015, when 50% of the supply saw losses.
  • The Fear and Greed Index currently reads 11, indicating Extreme Fear, similar to past bottom periods.
  • UTXOs in profit have dropped from 99.89% in October 2025 to 56.4% today, indicating that most BTC tokens moved now face unrealized loss.

48.7% of Bitcoin Circulating Supply Now Below Cost Basis

Market analyst Crypto Rand was the first to highlight this development. He recently noted that 50% of Bitcoin’s total supply now sits at a loss, pointing out that the last three times this happened, it marked the exact bottom of the cycle.

Data from CryptoQuant corroborates the claim. Specifically, 48.7% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, or about 9.7 million BTC, currently sits below its cost basis at today’s price of around $66,500. This comes as Bitcoin has dropped 47% from its $126,000 all-time high reached in October 2025.

Bitcoin Supply in Loss
Bitcoin Supply in Loss | CryptoQuant

In past cycles, similar conditions appeared when Bitcoin traded at $15,479 in November 2022, $3,122 in December 2018, and $152 in January 2015. Each of those price levels later proved to be the bear market bottom, and strong recoveries followed every time.

Back then, large portions of supply sitting at a loss showed that many weak hands had already sold. As heavy losses forced capitulation, selling pressure eased, giving the market room to recover.

Fear Levels Match Previous Bitcoin Cycle Lows

Meanwhile, the market mood also shows deep pessimism. The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 11, which signals Extreme Fear. This reading is much lower than the 20 recorded during the November 2022 bottom and matches the 11 level from early December 2018, when Bitcoin formed its low during that cycle.

Also, on-chain data indicates that the share of UTXOs in profit has fallen from 99.89% in early October 2025 to 56.4% today. This figure also stood above 99% in November 2024. As recently as January 2026, this figure was still 84.6%, showing how quickly profitability across the network has dropped.

Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit
Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit | CryptoQuant

For the uninitiated, UTXOs in profit measure how many coins are worth more now than when they last moved. In simple terms, it shows how many holders are currently in profit. The steep decline suggests that pain has spread across the market in a short period of time.

Many analysts believe that when losses peak and forced sellers exit, the market often gets closer to a turning point. While this signal does not particularly guarantee a bottom, history shows that this area has mattered before.

Other Analysts See Signs of a Turnaround

Elsewhere, pseudonymous analyst Moustache also believes the bottom may already be in for both Bitcoin and altcoins. He noted that Bitcoin recently recorded its second-lowest weekly RSI in history, highlighting it as one reason behind his conclusion. 

Bitcoin 1W Chart Moustache
Bitcoin 1W Chart | Moustache

Meanwhile, trader HK highlighted a price range between $60,000 and $42,000 as the most likely zone for Bitcoin to form its bottom. He argued that this area represents a place where experienced investors quietly build positions while others panic, citing historical data. 

Bitcoin Has a Stronger Chance of Hitting $1,000,000 Than Crashing to $0: Expert

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Bitcoin Has a Stronger Chance of Hitting $1,000,000 Than Crashing to $0: Expert

The chance of Bitcoin reaching $1,000,000 is higher than the chance of it dropping to $0, according to Austin Arnold, founder of Altcoin Daily.

The statement comes as Bitcoin now trades at $66,700, down 48% from its all-time high. Some bearish commentators, like Peter Schiff and Mike McGlone of Bloomberg, have predicted a drop to $0.

To Peter Schiff, the opportunity for holders is to sell now while the price is still around $60,000, claiming it will eventually go to zero. However, bulls have resisted such predictions. They believe there is a stronger possibility for Bitcoin to reach new price milestones than to collapse to zero.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin trades at $66,700, down 48% from its all-time high.

  • Altcoin Daily founder says BTC is more likely to reach $1M than fall to $0.

  • Institutional adoption, ETFs, and public firms strengthen Bitcoin’s market position.

  • Historical trends show BTC rebounds after corrections, fueling long-term bullish outlook.

“We’ll Buy the Entire Supply at $0”

Arnold’s statement drew reactions from crypto commentators, who largely agreed that a total collapse scenario appears increasingly unlikely.

One user argued that if Bitcoin were to somehow fall to zero, buyers would rush to acquire the entire supply. “If BTC reaches $0, we’re gonna buy the entire supply,” X user @Avxy6868 remarked.

This suggests the financial world would witness a generational FOMO to enter Bitcoin cheaply again, which would likely push the price up rather than down to $0.

Another commenter, @Vault, suggested that the “zero” argument effectively ended once Bitcoin achieved institutional scale. He pointed to the growing presence of public companies holding BTC, such as BlackRock.

Indeed, since 2024, massive capital has flowed into BTC through spot exchange-traded funds. During this time, many firms adopted BTC as a treasury asset.

For context, ETFs hold 1.45 million BTC worth $96 billion, public firms hold 1.088 million BTC worth over $34.55 billion, and private firms hold $28 billion in Bitcoin.

This is evidence that Bitcoin is now deeply embedded in global financial markets.

Massive institutional presence in Bitcoin
Massive institutional presence in Bitcoin

According to this view, a move to $0 would require a complete failure of global internet infrastructure. Meanwhile, a move to $1 million would simply require continued adoption, monetary expansion, and time.

Some participants project that such a milestone could arrive between 2028 and 2032, though they acknowledge it may take longer.

Bitcoin Historical Context

Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,700. Sixteen years ago, in July 2010, it changed hands for as little as $0.04865. In October 2025, it climbed as high as $126,200 during the previous cycle peak.

That long-term price expansion has strengthened the conviction of many holders, who see each drawdown as temporary within a broader uptrend. Even after sharp corrections, Bitcoin has historically rebounded to new highs over multi-year cycles.

Echoes of Michael Saylor’s $1M Thesis

Arnold’s comments closely mirror the stance of Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy. Last week, Saylor reiterated his binary outlook for Bitcoin, saying if BTC is not going to zero, it is ultimately heading to $1 million.

Strategy currently holds 717,722 BTC at an average purchase price of $76,020 per coin. Despite being on a paper loss of $6.97 billion, the firm has continued to buy more, stating it will never sell BTC, even if the price reaches $1 million.

Notably, the $1 million Bitcoin prediction is based on its fixed supply of 21 million coins. Fans argue that as more institutions join and global money flows in, the limited supply could push prices up sharply.

FG Nexus Dumps Another 7,550 ETH, Vitalik Sells 11,422 ETH

Lele Jima
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FG Nexus Dumps Another 7,550 ETH, Vitalik Sells 11,422 ETH

Ethereum treasury firm FG Nexus has continued trimming its ETH holdings, offloading more than 7,500 ETH in a single transaction. 

This latest move extends the company’s Ethereum selling streak that began late last year, despite the firm’s aggressive accumulation strategy in mid-2025. Consequently, the renewed selling pressure has reignited debate over institutional confidence in Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. 

Key Points 

  • FG Nexus extended its Ethereum selling spree yesterday, offloading 7,550 ETH in a single transaction.
  • Although the company initially planned to expand its ETH holdings last year, it later reversed course and began trimming its position.
  • Despite the latest sale, FG Nexus still holds more than 37,000 ETH in its portfolio.
  • High-profile entities, specifically Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, have sold thousands of ETH over the past few weeks.

FG Nexus Sells 7,550 Ethereum 

Earlier today, FG Nexus sold 7,550 ETH worth $14.06 million. Citing Arkham data, the blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain reported that the company transferred the tokens to Galaxy Digital in a single transaction. Notably, this sale follows a broader liquidation trend that sharply contrasts with FG Nexus’s earlier bullish stance.

Initially, the firm pursued an aggressive accumulation strategy, aiming to build a sizable Ethereum treasury. Between August and September 2025, FG Nexus acquired 50,770 ETH for $196 million at an average price of $3,860, according to Lookonchain. 

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From Accumulation Strategy to Liquidation 

Weeks after the October 10 crypto market crash, the company doubled down, announcing plans to sell property assets to fund further ETH purchases. However, as the market downturn deepened, FG Nexus swiftly reversed course. 

Less than a month after its expansion announcement, the firm began liquidating its holdings, selling 21,025 ETH for $55.7 million. It has now executed another 7,550 ETH sale, further extending its exit streak. Despite these significant disposals, FG Nexus still holds 37,594 ETH, valued at approximately $73.62 million at press time. 

FG Nexus Crypto Holdings
FG Nexus Crypto Holdings

This abrupt pivot from accumulation to liquidation underscores the risks of aggressive treasury strategies in volatile markets. With Ethereum trading well below its $3,860 average purchase price, FG Nexus currently faces an unrealized loss of over $70 million, highlighting the financial strain from prolonged bearish conditions. 

Broader Sell-Off? 

Meanwhile, FG Nexus’s ongoing sell-off coincides with broader concerns about declining institutional conviction in Ethereum. For instance, Trend Research, another Ethereum treasury firm, recently launched a massive liquidation campaign to repay debt, ultimately dumping its remaining 651,757 ETH on Binance on February 8. 

Similarly, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has executed substantial ETH sales, recently transferring 1,000 ETH to Bybit as part of a broader shift into high-quality DeFi assets.

Ethereum Co-Founder Vitalik Buterin Sells 11,422 ETH

At the same time, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also reduced his ETH exposure to support open-source development. He pledged to sell 16,384 ETH and has already liquidated 11,422 ETH, including a 675 ETH sale yesterday. 

These developments reflect mounting selling pressure and intensifying scrutiny of Ethereum’s near-term outlook, even as long-term adoption narratives remain intact.

Meanwhile, other treasury firms such as Bitmine have maintained strong confidence in ETH, steadily accumulating the asset in pursuit of a 5% supply stake. This week, the company acquired an additional 51,162 ETH, increasing its total holdings to 4,422,659 ETH (4.42 million). 

XRP Price if 50% of Circulating Cash is Tokenized and XRPL Captures 10%

Mark Brennan
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XRP Price if 50% of Circulating Cash is Tokenized and XRPL Captures 10%

Valuation models suggest the XRP price could reach an ambitious three-digit level if institutions tokenize 50% of circulating cash and XRPL captures 10% of the market.

Tokenization of real-world assets has become a hot topic among finance industry leaders, and XRP seems positioned to benefit from the growing trend. 

Notably, the XRP Ledger has already seen strong growth in tokenized real-world assets, adding $1.3 billion this year alone and pushing the total above $2.3 billion. If the ledger continues to see rapid growth in figures and eventually captures a meaningful share of the market, there could be a meaningful impact on the XRP price.

Key Points

  • While the tokenization of RWA has caught the attention of finance industry leaders, the XRPL has continued to penetrate the sector.
  • Data shows that the XRP Ledger has added $1.3 billion in tokenized RWA value this year alone, bringing its total value above $2.3 billion.
  • As discussions grow, market commentators believe more financial products could flow into the tokenization market.
  • One such area where tokenization could penetrate is in circulating money, and the XRPL could benefit from this development.
  • If 50% of circulating cash is tokenized and XRPL captures 10% of the value, valuation models suggest the XRP price could hit $215.

Most Money is Already Digital

This assessment came shortly after Brad Kimes of Digital Perspectives pulled together comments from several market voices to argue that the tokenization of global wealth could smoothly run on the XRP Ledger. Kimes’ commentary built on multiple disclosures from other market commentators.

For instance, the Kobeissi Letter confirmed that the IBM stock fell more than 10% after Anthropic announced that its AI system Claude can streamline COBOL code. 

Responding to this, market commentator Hampton claimed that 90% of the money in circulation today, about $50 trillion, sits in online databases powered by Cobalt mainframes. According to him, the world could be about to change.

Hamptonism on X
Hamptonism on X

Tokenizing Cash Could be Seamless

Kimes stressed that this shows that most global money is already digital at its core. If it already lives in databases, moving it into a tokenized form may not be as complicated as some think.

He then highlighted a recent comment by Securitize, stating that tokenization will bring trillions of dollars on-chain as the world changes. Kimes argued that if money already exists in digital systems, converting it could happen quickly. 

He also mentioned earlier remarks about the possibility of tokenizing the DTCC’s $100 trillion value in seconds or minutes. According to him, the financial plumbing is already connected. He said what remains is passing the proper legislation so companies can legally roll out and integrate these systems on a broad scale.

XRP Price if 50% of Global Cash Is Tokenized and XRPL Captures 10%

If just half of the $50 trillion highlighted by Hampton makes it to public blockchains in tokenized form, and XRPL captures a meaningful share, this development could have an impact on the XRP price. However, this remains unclear. As a result, we sought an evaluation from Google Gemini.

We presented a scenario where $25 trillion becomes tokenized globally, and the XRP Ledger captures 10% of that amount, potentially handling $2.5 trillion in tokenized real-world assets. 

In response, Gemini treated XRP as a liquidity tool inside a system supporting $2.5 trillion in assets such as institutional real estate, private equity, and national currencies. It examined how much transaction capacity and collateral would be necessary for a ledger operating at such a scale.

XRP Price Prediction from Google Gemini
XRP Price Prediction from Google Gemini

Gemini based its model on $25 trillion in total tokenized money, a 10% XRPL share equal to $2.5 trillion, and daily settlements of $25 billion, which represents a 1% turnover. It also assumed a liquidity buffer between 10 and 20 times the daily volume. According to this logic, if XRP’s price stays too low, even a $500 million institutional transfer could strain liquidity and create instability.

Using this model, Gemini presented a projected price of $215.00 per XRP. At around $215 and with a circulating supply of 60 billion XRP, the network would reach a total valuation of roughly $12.9 trillion. Gemini argued that this level would provide enough depth to handle $2.5 trillion in assets with sub-second settlement and minimal slippage.

XRP Will Make a Lot of People Rich in 2026: Analyst

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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XRP Will Make a Lot of People Rich in 2026: Analyst

Optimism around XRP is building again after months of price weakness.

Interestingly, one market commentator is boldly predicting that 2026 could be the year the asset transforms long-term holders into millionaires.

Specifically, XRP commentator Archie sparked debate on X after posting a chart predicting that XRP “will make a lot of people rich in 2026.”

Key Points

  • XRP optimism is rising as an analyst predicts a potential surge to $83 by 2026.
  • The forecast implies a 5,914% gain and a projected $5 trillion market cap.
  • Mixed reactions followed, with some doubting whether such gains are realistic.
  • Supporters argue that prolonged consolidation could set up a major breakout.

Four-Figure XRP?

Notably, the shared chart projects XRP moving as high as $83. From its current position of $1.38, this would represent a 5,914% surge. Moreover, this price would imply a technical market cap of $5 trillion for XRP.

Accordingly, the post drew mixed reactions. While some community members echoed the bullish outlook, others questioned whether such gains are realistic.

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One user argued that even a 3x move from current levels would be “hardly rich-making.” Archie pushed back on the skepticism, responding with a striking remark: “See you at four figures.”

For context, those holding 1,000 XRP would have a portfolio worth $83,000 at that price. Those holding 10,000 XRP would be approaching millionaire status at $83 per token.

Meanwhile, Archie even suggested that XRP could exceed double digits and potentially approach $1,000.

Not everyone shared the enthusiasm. Another user suggested that only Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen would significantly benefit from any major price appreciation, highlighting lingering concerns about token distribution and insider holdings.

Five Red Months and a Setup for Reversal?

The bold 2026 prediction comes at a time when XRP has been under pressure for an extended period. The asset is on track to print its fifth consecutive red month, a rare occurrence that some analysts are comparing to the 2016 consolidation phase.

Back then, XRP endured a prolonged period of disinterest and weak price action before staging an explosive rally in 2017. Some market watchers argue that extended drawdowns often serve as shakeout phases, removing weak hands before a stronger uptrend begins.

With sentiment currently divided and price momentum subdued, bullish commentators believe the market may be closer to the end of consolidation.

“Not Time to Give Up”

XRP is down over 62% from its recent high, and XRPL validator Vet says this is not the time to give up. “You didn’t get this far for no reason,” he said.

Supporters argue that regulatory clarity in the U.S., expanding institutional interest, and continued development on the XRP Ledger could position the asset for a larger cycle move heading into 2026.

Ultimately, XRP holders remain split between skepticism and conviction. But if history repeats and prolonged consolidation gives way to expansion, 2026 could become a defining year for the asset, as some of its most vocal supporters predict.

Shiba Inu Price Prediction: What Will SHIB Be Worth by the End of Q1 2026?

Lele Jima
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Shiba Inu Price Prediction: What Will SHIB Be Worth by the End of Q1 2026?

With market sentiment still fragile, Q1’s closing price could set the tone for Shiba Inu performance throughout the rest of the year. 

As the first quarter of the year approaches its close, investors are closely watching Shiba Inu to determine whether it can recover from its recent downtrend. After months of selling pressure and market weakness, investors are now assessing whether SHIB can regain bullish momentum or continue trading near key support levels.

Key Points 

  • SHIB has reversed its early-year gains, falling more than 12% this month.
  • Analysts project a near-term trading range between $0.0000053 and $0.0000090.
  • Historically, SHIB has delivered mixed Q1 results since 2022, finishing two quarters bullish and two bearish.
  • This quarter already leans negative, with SHIB down 14% so far. 

Shiba Inu 2026 Performance

Financial markets have remained highly volatile in 2026, and the crypto sector, especially Shiba Inu, has not been spared. Although SHIB opened the year on a bullish note, the rally quickly faded.

Notably, SHIB erased a zero and surged to $0.00001 on January 5, raising hopes of a sustained recovery. However, selling pressure returned shortly, wiping out most of those gains. The token closed January with a 1.58% loss and has already declined 12.7% in February, intensifying uncertainty about its near-term direction. 

Potential SHIB Price by End of Q1 2026

As a result, investors are increasingly asking where SHIB could trade by the end of Q1 2026, which concludes on March 31, 2026. To provide clarity, we reviewed projections from leading crypto analytics platforms, including Changelly, CoinCodex, and ChatGPT.

Changelly 

Although Changelly did not provide a specific March 31 target, it projects SHIB will trade between $0.00000690 and $0.00000696. This range represents a potential gain of 16.2% to 17.29% from the current price of $0.000005934, respectively. 

Changelly Q1 2026 Shiba Inu Forecast
Changelly Q1 2026 Shiba Inu Forecast

CoinCodex 

Meanwhile, CoinCodex offers a slightly more bullish outlook. It forecasts a minimum price of $0.000006576 and a maximum of $0.000007181. Achieving these targets would require SHIB to rise 9.53% and 21.01%, respectively. 

Coincodex Q1 2026 Price Prediction for Shiba Inu
Coincodex Q1 2026 Price Prediction for Shiba Inu

ChatGPT Forecast 

In addition, ChatGPT outlines three possible scenarios. In a bearish case, SHIB could fall to $0.0000053–$0.0000058 if selling pressure intensifies. Under a neutral outlook, the token may consolidate between $0.0000060 and $0.0000070. Conversely, a bullish breakout could drive the price toward $0.0000075–$0.0000090 if momentum strengthens.

Overall, given current market conditions, ChatGPT suggests SHIB is most likely to close Q1 within the $0.000006–$0.000007 range, unless broader market sentiment shifts significantly. 

ChatGPT Q1 2026 Projection for Shiba Inu
ChatGPT Q1 2026 Projection for Shiba Inu

Historical Performance 

Notably, Shiba Inu’s Q1 performance has been mixed since 2022. Data from CryptoRank shows that SHIB closed Q1 2022 with a 22.6% decline. However, it rebounded in Q1 2023, posting a 34.3% gain.

Momentum strengthened further in Q1 2024, when SHIB surged 199.4% to end the quarter strongly. In contrast, the token reversed course in the following year, closing Q1 with a 41.4% loss.

With the current quarter already down 14%, uncertainty remains over whether SHIB will extend its bearish trend or stage a notable recovery before quarter-end. 

You Didn’t Get This Far for No Reason; It’s the Best Time to Get Your XRP Thesis Up: XRPL Dev Says

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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You Didn’t Get This Far for No Reason; It’s the Best Time to Get Your XRP Thesis Up: XRPL Dev Says

Fresh waves of doubt are circling XRP, which trades nearly 70% below its recent peak. But according to XRPL validator Vet, this is not the moment to fold.

“You didn’t get this far for no reason,” he told followers. “This is the best time to get your XRP thesis up.”

His message arrives at a time when XRP has printed five consecutive red monthly candles. This is a rare stretch not seen since the 2016/2017 cycle that preceded one of the largest rallies in crypto history.

Key Points

  • XRP trades ~70% below its peak, but XRPL validator Vet urges holders to stick to their thesis.

  • Five straight red monthly candles mark rare fear, echoing periods before major rallies in 2016–2017.

  • Analysts warn XRP breakouts are sudden, often leaving late investors chasing price after moves begin.

  • XRPL DeFi growth and infrastructure readiness suggest long-term potential beyond short-term hype.

“XRP Is Dead” Narratives Return

This is not the first time XRP has faced prolonged skepticism. Back in 2022–2024, when XRP traded around $1 for years, critics labeled it stagnant.

Yet in 2024, the asset broke out and surged roughly 7x. Today, after touching $3.66 in 2025 and retracing toward the $1.10–$1.30 range, similar claims are resurfacing.

Vet previously criticized what he called “collective amnesia” among market participants who repeatedly dismiss XRP during consolidation phases, only to chase once momentum returns.

The argument is that markets often test conviction before rewarding it.

XRP Breakouts Rarely Send Invitations

Technical commentators have echoed this psychological theme. Analyst Dark Defender recently argued that XRP’s next major expansion could align with a historic drop in Bitcoin dominance, similar to 2017 when capital rotated aggressively into altcoins.

That year, XRP surged over 70,000% as Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap fell dramatically.

Meanwhile, analyst ChartNerd has repeatedly noted that XRP breakouts tend to arrive unexpectedly, leaving little time for repositioning. XRP commentator Moon Lambo has also stressed that investors are either positioned before the move or end up chasing price after it begins.

The DeFi Angle the Market May Be Missing

Beyond price charts, some argue the real thesis lies in fundamentals. XRP YouTuber Zach Rector recently said the market is not fully pricing in what could become a major growth driver — DeFi on the XRP Ledger.

The XRPL has had a native decentralized exchange since 2012, operating at the base layer rather than through external smart contracts. With native lending proposals such as XLS-66, expanding tokenization efforts, and growing institutional activity, supporters believe XRPL’s DeFi infrastructure is quietly maturing.

Under CEO Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple has pursued strategic acquisitions across custody, liquidity, treasury software, and prime brokerage. Commentators see the launch of RLUSD and the increasing on-chain liquidity as long-term ecosystem plays rather than short-term price catalysts.

Market at Emotional Extremes

Recent on-chain data shows XRP holders recently hit one of their biggest loss spikes since 2022, suggesting fearful investors sold at a loss.

The data implies emotional extremes from holders, suggesting weak hands have exited the market. Yet, it doesn’t guarantee a price rebound. 

Moreover, critics note that comparing XRP’s situation to history overlooks today’s much larger market and different macro conditions.

Ultimately, whether XRP’s next move will mirror history remains to be seen. But as skepticism grows, many believe this is when true conviction matters most.

XRP Now Crossing Border Through Axelar as $4.5M Transfered in a Single Day

Elendu Benedict
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XRP Now Crossing Border Through Axelar as $4.5M Transfered in a Single Day

Axelar Network says XRP is now crossing borders, as its cross-chain infrastructure has accelerated the asset’s movement to other networks.

This effort to move XRP across other chains has ramped up this year, as volume transferred through Axelar continued to climb, reflecting the bridge’s utility. On-chain data shows that earlier this month, a single-day reading surpassed $4.53 million, setting a new record.

Key Points

  • Axelar Network says XRP is now crossing borders, as its cross-chain infrastructure has accelerated the asset’s movement to other networks.
  • Data shows that since the start of 2026, more than $18.6 million in XRP has moved through Axelar’s interchain token service (ITS), spanning over 5,326 transactions.
  • On February 9, interchain XRP transfers on Axelar reached $4.53 million in a single day, marking the highest daily total recorded this year.
  • On January 19, the Axelar ITS recorded its highest XRP transaction count of 412 transfers, the largest so far this year.
  • The uptick in XRP transfer via Axelar comes during a period when XRP’s market price has performed poorly.

XRP Cross-Chain Transfer on Axelar Picks Up

Cross-chain activity around XRP is quietly accelerating, even as the token’s price struggles to regain momentum this year. On-chain data compiled by analyst Eman shows that value is steadily moving through Axelar’s interoperability rails as the asset’s usage expands beyond its native network.

The February 12 data shows that since the start of 2026, more than $18.6 million in XRP has moved through Axelar’s interchain token service (ITS). The transfers span 5,326 transactions, reflecting a consistent stream of cross-network settlement. While the figure may look modest compared with overall XRP volumes, the steady growth points to strengthening adoption of the Axelar protocol.

Utility became particularly clear on February 9 when interchain XRP transfers reached $4.53 million in a single day, marking the highest daily total recorded this year. That surge stands out against the gradual usage in January.

A shared chart also showed that on January 19, the Axelar ITS saw its highest transaction count involving XRP. Users carried out 412 transfers using the protocol that day, the largest so far this year.

XRP Moved on Axela ITS/Eman
XRP Moved on Axela ITS

XRP Utility Expands Beyond Price Action

The uptick in XRP transfer via Axelar comes during a period when XRP’s market price has performed poorly. In past cycles, falling prices often coincided with reduced on-chain activity. A contrasting scenario is playing out this time, with infrastructure usage increasing even as sentiment remains cautious.

Notably, the ability to quickly shift value across chains has become increasingly important as the crypto landscape fragments into multiple networks. Services like ITS effectively turn XRP into a bridge asset that can travel wherever demand exists, improving interoperability.

For the XRP Ledger, this trend suggests deeper adoption beyond price. Payment counts and interoperability flows often reveal whether a network is being used for practical settlement, a use case that attracts institutional players.

A separate report also highlights the growing adoption of XRP and the XRP Ledger despite the market uncertainties. The Crypto Basic recently shared that XRP Ledger’s daily successful payment volume reached 2.5 million, up from 1.5 million in the previous quarter.

Bitcoin Decouples From Stocks in Sharpest Split Since 2022 FTX Fallout

Zabi
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Bitcoin Decouples From Stocks in Sharpest Split Since 2022 FTX Fallout

Bitcoin correlation with U.S. equities has fallen to its weakest level since late 2022, according to market intelligence firm Santiment.

In a recent post on X, the firm explained that Bitcoin has historically moved in tandem with the S&P 500. For instance, when interest rates were low and economic growth was strong, as in 2021 and 2024, both stocks and digital assets advanced in parallel.

Conversely, during periods of uncertainty and aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2018 and 2022, crypto markets declined alongside equities. This pattern reinforced the view that Bitcoin often behaves like a risk asset.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin has historically moved in sync with equities, rising during periods of strong economic growth and low interest rates.
  • During crises and aggressive Fed rate hikes, such as in 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin has fallen alongside stocks.
  • Since late August 2025, Bitcoin has sharply diverged: down 43%, while the S&P 500 rose 7% and gold surged 51%.
  • This represents the weakest Bitcoin-stock correlation since the 2022 market turmoil.
  • Santiment suggests that this decoupling is temporary and that Bitcoin could realign with equities if market conditions improve.

From Crisis Correlation to Market Divergence

The connection became especially clear in November 2022. At that time, surging interest rates coupled with the collapse of FTX, intensified market stress and accelerated capital flight from speculative assets. Bitcoin plunged to around $15,700, falling even more sharply than traditional equities.

According to Santiment, that episode underscored just how closely crypto markets were intertwined with broader financial conditions at the time.

Today, however, the landscape appears markedly different. Over the past six months, Bitcoin’s trajectory has diverged significantly from other major assets. Since late August, gold has rallied 51%, while the S&P 500 has gained 7%. In contrast, Bitcoin has fallen 43% over the same period.

As Santiment noted, this divergence represents the weakest correlation between Bitcoin and stocks since the turmoil of late 2022. Instead of tracking equity markets, Bitcoin has significantly underperformed. Meanwhile, traditional markets have remained relatively stable, and gold has attracted strong demand.

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Historical Cycles and Potential Reconnection

Despite the unusual decoupling, Santiment cautioned that such divergences rarely last indefinitely. Financial markets tend to move in cycles, with capital rotating between asset classes as macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment evolve.

When liquidity returns and risk appetite strengthens, assets that once moved together often realign.

Viewed in that context, the firm suggested the current disconnect could represent a longer-term opportunity. Specifically, should Bitcoin resume its historical tendency to follow equities during economic expansions, the asset may have room to recover.

Santiment pointed to three interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 as a potential catalyst for renewed alignment between crypto and traditional markets.

For now, Bitcoin is trading at $65,237, up 3% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.

Solana Price Forecast for Feb 25: Where Next as SOL Enters Make or Break Zone? 

Maxwell Mutuma
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Solana Price Forecast for Feb 25: Where Next as SOL Enters Make or Break Zone? 

Solana enters a critical wedge squeeze as momentum builds, with a breakout set to define the next major directional move.

Solana (SOL) has recovered some of its losses, reaching $82.07, and posting a strong 7.0% gain over the past 24 hours. The intraday chart shows SOL gradually climbing from the $76–$77 range before staging a sharp breakout above $82, briefly touching the upper end of its daily range at $82.51.

After the breakout, the price action consolidated at $81, suggesting buyers are maintaining control near session highs. The 24-hour range spans from $76.10 to $82.51, highlighting significant upside expansion during the session.

Performance metrics show mixed trends across longer timeframes. While SOL is up 0.4% over the past hour and 7.0% over 24 hours, it remains down 3.4% over the past 7 days. It is also down 33.0% over 30 days, and 41.8% over one year, reflecting broader corrective pressure. 

The recent breakout above the $80 level could signal strengthening short-term momentum. However, sustained upside continuation will depend on whether SOL can hold above this reclaimed psychological level and build higher support in the sessions ahead.

Where’s Solana Headed?

Despite the recent recovery, Solana’s price on the daily chart still sits well below its major moving averages. The 50-day SMA rests near $108.79, the 100-day SMA around $120.11, and the 200-day SMA close to $158.92, all trending downward and stacked bearishly above the current price.

Solana Daily Analysis
Solana Daily Analysis

This alignment confirms that the broader trend remains negative despite recent stabilization. A sustained recovery would require a decisive move back above the 50-day SMA to shift the medium-term structure. If SOL breaches the 50-day SMA, the next resistance level to watch will be $120.11.

Momentum indicators show early signs of improvement. For instance, the Awesome Oscillator remains below the zero line at approximately -13.85, indicating that bearish momentum is still present. However, the histogram bars have transitioned from deeper red to green, signaling that selling pressure is weakening and bullish momentum is gradually building.

While this shift suggests the potential for a short-term rebound, confirmation of a trend reversal would depend on SOL reclaiming key moving averages and pushing the AO back into positive territory.

Solana’s Make or Break Zone?

On the commentary side, analyst account Whale Factor notes that Solana is entering what he describes as a high-probability “make or break” zone on the 4-hour timeframe. According to his analysis, SOL is trading within a descending wedge pattern that is approaching maximum compression, signaling a potential volatility expansion at what he calls the “Critical Point.” This squeeze suggests that a decisive breakout could soon determine the next directional move.

Solana 4H Chart
Solana 4H Chart

In his bullish scenario, a clean breakout above the wedge followed by a successful retest of the $82 level could pave the way for a rally toward the $97–$100 macro resistance zone.

Conversely, if SOL fails to hold the $78 support level, he warns that downside pressure could intensify, opening the door for a move back toward the $68 region. Whale Factor emphasizes that traders should manage risk carefully, as the trend will only confirm itself once a clear breakout occurs.

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