The Crypto Basic

Market data indicates that XRP has left breadcrumbs or macro formations to ascertain its position in every cycle since 2013.

The crypto market has taken a heavy hit this year, shedding $662 billion in value, and XRP has not escaped the pressure. Despite the declining prices, market data shows the current downturn follows a bigger and familiar pattern, and XRP could recover promptly.

Notably, XRP has consistently left “breadcrumbs” that investors could leverage across each cycle. These breadcrumbs refer to repeatable macro formations that signal where the price stands in its cycle.

Key Points

• While XRP has continued to collapse over the past five months, market data shows it has persistently left “breadcrumbs” since 2013.
• These breadcrumbs refer to macro formations or clues across multiple cycles that indicate where the price stands in each cycle.
• The macro formations have ranged from sharp vertical upsurges, like in 2017, to long compressions like in 2018 to 2020.
• Currently, XRP trades within the descending flag or falling channel formation, which indicates that prices could recover promptly.

The Ignition Coil

Market watcher EGRAG Crypto highlighted these breadcrumbs in a recent analysis. Notably, he called XRP’s early phase “The Ignition Coil,” which covers the period from 2013 to 2016. 

During these years, the price printed tight, overlapping monthly candles while volatility slowly compressed. XRP briefly climbed to $0.03 in December 2014, but the move did not hold. Instead, the price corrected and formed a descending triangle that stretched for nearly three years. By March 2017, XRP had dropped to $0.005.

EGRAG said the key breadcrumb here was the descending triangle. According to him, every major XRP rally begins with long compression. Without that coiled pressure building over time, the explosive move that follows simply does not happen.

The Vertical Ignition

Once XRP broke above the compression in 2017, it entered what EGRAG names “The Vertical Ignition.” In this phase, the price action moved quickly. Bullish monthly candles stacked with very little overlap, indicating strong expansion. Notably, XRP surged from $0.005 in March 2017 to $0.4536 by May 2017.

For EGRAG, the breadcrumb in this phase is the indication that when XRP breaks out of compression, it moves fast and aggressively. The expansion does not play out slowly, but happens with force.

Controlled Decompression

After the 2017 surge, XRP moved into the “Controlled Decompression,” spanning 2018 to 2020. Here, the price met resistance at the May 2017 high of $0.4536 and then pulled back slightly. From June 2017 to November 2017, XRP consolidated between $0.1242 and $0.2159, forming an orderly channel.

EGRAG believes the breadcrumb here is the “The Flag.” Notably, instead of collapsing, XRP bled within the structure. Selling looked systematic rather than emotional, and the price never fully retraced the prior impulse.

The Vertical 1-Month Candle

The next formation after the decompression is the “Vertical Expansion/Ignition Candle.” During this formation, XRP broke out of the decompression by December 2017 and printed a massive monthly candle, rallying 740% in that single month. The move extended into January 2018, when XRP reached $3.5.

EGRAG noted that the breadcrumb tied to this candle shows that XRP often tops or enters a range around such extreme vertical moves. To him, this kind of candle tends to appear near the beginning of the end of a major price uptrend.

The Long Bear Market

After peaking at $3.5 in January 2018, XRP entered the “Long Bear Market,” which EGRAG also calls the “Descending Compression Channel (Macro Cooldown).” From January 2018 to June 2020, the price moved inside a long, downward-sloping channel with overlapping monthly bodies and a slow grind lower. By June 2020, XRP had fallen to $0.1751.

EGRAG sees the breadcrumb here in the structure itself. Instead of seeing a sudden collapse, XRP underwent a time-based correction, referring to a controlled decompression after expansion. He noted that every time XRP completes this kind of descending compression channel, it follows with another Vertical Expansion candle.

The Echo Run

EGRAG calls the next rally “The Echo Run.” After recovering from July 2020, XRP broke above the descending triangle and climbed to $1.96 by April 2021. Although this move was less vertical than the 2017 surge, it still marked an impulsive run.

According to him, the breadcrumb here confirms the higher-order trend. He stressed that a second expansion leg validates the broader direction and does not happen by accident.

The Structural Reset

Meanwhile, from the April 2021 high of $1.96, XRP dropped and entered “The Structural Reset.” Between 2021 and 2023, the price drifted lower within a falling channel. Notably, by February 2023, XRP had dropped to $0.3761.

Here, the breadcrumb shows that XRP favors time-based corrections instead of sharp price destruction. The price moved lower in an organized Descending Channel while macro support continued to hold.

The MACRO Range

Following the reset, XRP did not collapse. Instead, it entered the “The MACRO Range,” also known as “The Acceptance Range.” From February 2023 to October 2024, XRP’s price traded sideways between $0.39 and $0.80, forming a horizontal channel with flat.

EGRAG noted that the breadcrumb in this phase relates to digestion and accumulation. Specifically, XRP held its structure and moved sideways rather than down, preparing for a potential expansion into a higher range.

The Breadcrumb Zone

In November 2024, XRP broke out of the horizontal channel and surged to $3.4 by January 2025 following the U.S. presidential election. It later pulled back to $2 and consolidated between $2 and $3. EGRAG calls this stage “The Breadcrumb Zone.”

He said the breadcrumb here lies in the strong breakout body followed by smaller corrective candles, with the price holding above its prior base. He noted that this structure has appeared before every major continuation.

Following Breadcrumbs

The current formation, which began turning bearish in October 2025, carries the name “Following Breadcrumbs,” which EGRAG also calls the “Descending Flag/Falling Channel (Bullish Continuation).” In this phase, XRP dropped from $2.84 at the start of October 2025 to $1.41, marking a decline of more than 50%.

Despite this, EGRAG believes the structure remains intact. He called it a downward-sloping, controlled pullback with overlapping bodies and no panic selling after an impulsive move higher. 

He insisted that this pattern does not indicate a top, but represents a cooldown inside a broader uptrend. As long as the range holds, he maintains that XRP’s macro rhythm, involving the phases: Ignite, Range, Flag, Expand, remains intact.

Data from XRP’s cycle math shows that the XRP price may still drop lower this cycle before it can find a solid bottom.

The bull market that defined 2025 appears to have given way to a more bearish market environment. The prevalent bearish pressure has dealt a blow to XRP’s price action, leading to a 60% decline from the July 2025 all-time peak of $3.66.

At some point, XRP dropped to a 15-month local low of $1.11 before recovering to the current price of around $1.41. While multiple market participants believe the $1.11 floor marked this cycle’s bottom, cycle math from historical context suggests XRP could drop further to the $0.75 to $0.85 range before finding a bottom.

Key Points

• Amid the ongoing downtrend that picked up in Q4 2025, the XRP price collapsed to a 15-month low of $1.11 on Feb. 6 before recovering above $1.4.
• Most market participants believe this floor price may have marked the bottom of the downturn, but data suggests steeper declines could play out.
• An XRP cycle math which leveraged historical data on past bottoms shows that subsequent cycle bottoms have been 2.8x higher than the immediate past ones.
• This data indicates that XRP could bottom at $0.78 in the ongoing cycle, translating to a price range of $0.75 to $0.85.

XRP’s Crash to $1.11

Well-regarded market technician EGRAG Crypto highlighted these figures as some investors continue to anticipate the bottom for this cycle. At the same time, another camp insists that the $1.11 low marked the lowest price for XRP.

For context, the broader market’s bearish pressure intensified in early February, with XRP recording a steep 19.62% crash on Feb. 5, as it lost the $1.5 psychological mark on that day. The selloffs spilled into the next day, resulting in a steeper drop to $1.11 on Feb. 6. 

This price level, which marked a 15-month low for XRP, represented a 69.7% drop from XRP’s all-time high of $3.66. Due to the extent of this decline, several market analysts and investors have insisted that the $1.11 low may have marked XRP’s bottom for this cycle.

XRP Cycle Low Could Come in at $0.75 to $0.85

However, in his latest market commentary, EGRAG suggested that the bottom could be lower, aligning with projections from fellow analyst CoinsKid. He presented what he called the XRP cycle math, using data from historical context to assess where XRP could find its bottom in the ongoing downtrend.

Specifically, the market analyst called attention to the fact that XRP saw its market bottom in the 2020 bear market at $0.10. Notably, this low emerged in March 2020. Meanwhile, the 2022 bear market bottom came in at $0.28 when XRP dropped to a low of $0.2870 by June 2022. 

EGRAG pointed out that the $0.28 bottom in 2022 represented a 2.8x increase from the 2020 bottom at $0.10. This represents a natural effect in the crypto market, as subsequent bear market bottoms often emerge at higher prices than previous ones due to the consistent uptrend crypto assets witness. 

Now, EGRAG has calculated XRP’s subsequent bottoms to be 2.8x higher than the immediate past ones. If this pattern continues, he calculates XRP’s next bottom to come in at $0.78, placing it within the $0.75 to $0.85 range. 

Implication from Current Prices

EGRAG said that in his view, every market cycle pushes XRP to a higher support level, reduces how sharply it can fall, and follows an actual pattern instead of random moves. He added that while markets don’t move in exactly the same way each time, XRP’s trend of setting higher lows keeps repeating.

Currently, XRP changes hands at $1.41, already down 22.48% this year alone. For XRP to collapse to the $0.85 to $0.75 region, its price would need to drop an additional 39.7% to 46.8%. The last time XRP saw this price range was in November 2024.

Wietse Wind, founder of XRP wallet Xaman Wallet, has revealed that three XRP yield providers are on the verge of going live directly within the wallet’s home screen.

In a recent post, Wind disclosed that users will soon be able to access yield opportunities straight from the Xaman interface. Users will also see deployed capital displayed in the asset list.

He teased the rollout by asking the community which provider would launch first and which one users are hoping for. Shortly after, Xaman’s official account echoed the development with a simple post: “XRP + yield?” 

This essentially signals that native yield access within the leading self-custodial XRP wallet is close.

Key Points

• Xaman Wallet founder Wietse Wind says three XRP yield providers are nearly ready to launch.

• Users will soon be able to access yield opportunities directly from Xaman’s home screen.

• FXRP supply surpasses 100M, showing strong demand for XRP-based DeFi and passive income.

• Institutional interest grows as Doppler Finance and SBI Ripple Asia explore XRP yield products.

XRP Yield Momentum Builds

The announcement comes amid accelerating momentum around XRP-based decentralized finance. Earlier this week, Flare Network reported that its wrapped XRP asset, FXRP, is nearing the 100 million supply milestone. As of press time, the FXRP supply has now surpassed 100 million.

Indeed, since its launch in September 2025, FXRP supply has continued to surge. Over 85% of the supply is locked across DeFi protocols such as Enosys, Kinetic, BlazeSwap, and Upshift.

According to Flare, more than 37,000 minting transactions have taken place, reflecting sustained demand from XRP holders seeking on-chain utility and passive income opportunities. The majority of FXRP is currently deployed across lending, liquidity, and yield-generating applications within the Flare ecosystem.

This rapid expansion suggests that XRP is moving beyond a payments asset to becoming a yield-bearing instrument within DeFi.

Institutional Interest in XRP Yield Products

Beyond retail DeFi, institutional players are also entering the XRP yield narrative.

In December, XRPL-native protocol Doppler Finance announced a strategic partnership with SBI Ripple Asia to develop institutional-grade XRP yield products and advance real-world asset tokenization on the XRP Ledger.

The collaboration marked SBI Ripple Asia’s first partnership with a native XRPL protocol. The move highlights institutional appetite for compliant, yield-focused blockchain infrastructure. 

With regulatory clarity improving in regions like Japan and Singapore, many institutions are exploring XRP-based financial products beyond traditional payment corridors.

Xaman at the Center of XRP DeFi Access

Notably, Xaman has already played a key role in expanding XRP’s DeFi accessibility. In October, Flare integrated Xaman, enabling users to mint FXRP directly from the wallet without transferring assets to external EVM wallets.

Now, with three yield providers reportedly “almost ready” to launch inside Xaman’s home screen, the wallet is set to become a central gateway for XRP-native yield opportunities.

The development also comes as discussions continue around the proposed XLS-66 amendment, which could introduce native lending functionality to the XRP Ledger. 

While some have questioned whether external DeFi platforms would remain relevant, leading community voices argue that multiple ecosystems can coexist and complement each other.

XRP is now on track to record five consecutive monthly candles for the first time in a decade. The last time this happened, the price spiked 60,000%.

The crypto market has not fared well since the fourth quarter of 2025, and altcoins such as XRP have felt the biggest impact. Notably, XRP began October 2025 with a price of $2.84, but has since dropped to $1.42 at press time. This represents a 50% decline over the past five months.

However, what stands out is how consistent the declines have been. For context, XRP has recorded four consecutive monthly losing candles since October 2025, and is on track to record a fifth one, with a 13.56% drop this month, February 2026. The last time XRP saw five consecutive monthly losses, its price spiked more than 60,000%.

Key Points

• XRP has continued to face steep declines over the past few months, down 50% since the fourth quarter of 2025.
• However, a more interesting find is how consistent the downturn has played out, with XRP now seeing four consecutive monthly red candles.
• XRP has now dropped 13.56% this month, February 2026, and is currently on track to record its fifth consecutive monthly red candle for the first time in a decade.
• Historical data confirms that the last time this occurred was from late 2016 to early 2017, and XRP soared more than 60,000% after recovering.

XRP On Track to Record Fifth Monthly Candle in Red

Market analyst CryptoBull was the first to spotlight this trend amid the ongoing market downturn. Notably, after XRP soared to the $3.66 all-time high in July 2025, it faced bearish pressure and has since witnessed consistent declines.

The token first recorded an 8.15% drop in August 2025 before recovering by 2.55% in September of that year. However, when the broader market downtrend emerged in October 2025, things took a turn for the worse. Notably, since October 2025, XRP has only witnessed consistent monthly red candles.

Within this period, the crypto asset recorded four straight monthly red candles, with a decline of 42% across these months. Now, the fifth month, February 2025, seems to be following the same trend, with XRP already down 13.52%, as it changes hands at $1.42. If XRP closes February in the red, that would mark its fifth consecutive losing candle.

Historical Data Confirms How Rare This Trend Is

Interestingly, market data shows that five consecutive monthly drops are extremely rare in the crypto market, regardless of the intensity of the bear market. 

Notably, even during the Terra ecosystem collapse of mid-2022, which devastated the entire crypto market and led to extreme losses for XRP, XRP only saw three consecutive monthly red candles from April to June 2022.

Also, leading to the November 2022 FTX collapse, XRP only saw consecutive red candles from October to December 2022. Before now, XRP had not recorded even four consecutive monthly red candles since 2020, much less five.

The Last Time This Happened, XRP Spiked 60,000%

The last time XRP saw five consecutive monthly losing candles was from late 2016 to early 2017. Specifically, these declines began in October 2016 and continued to February 2017. Within this period, the XRP price collapsed from $0.00885 to $0.00557, marking a 37% decline.

However, what followed was an impressive upsurge that most market participants never expected. Specifically, XRP increased from $0.0055 in March to $0.3988 by May 2017 before facing a roadblock and consolidating for six months. After the consolidation, the rally resumed, pushing XRP to the $3.31 peak in January 2018.

Overall, the rally from $0.0055 in March 2017 to $3.31 by January 2018 represented a 60,081% increase in XRP’s price. CryptoBull’s analysis suggests that if the trend repeats, XRP could see another massive upsurge once this downtrend ends. 

For context, a 60,000% rise from the current price would lead to $841. However, it remains highly unlikely that XRP would see such gains. Besides, there is no guarantee that XRP has the potential to repeat the trend from 2017. As a result, investors should not regard this assessment as investment advice.