The Crypto Basic

XRP looks close to completing its ongoing Wave 2 correction, with the upcoming third wave targeting double-digit levels.

Notably, XRP has remained under pressure throughout 2026, with the cryptocurrency down nearly 43% since the beginning of the year. 

However, chart data suggests the current decline may be nearing its end. Market watcher EGRAG believes XRP is following an Elliott Wave structure in which the ongoing pullback represents Wave 2. If this outlook proves correct, the next impulsive Wave 3 could lead to $43.83. 

XRP Facing Bullish Divergence

The three-day XRP chart highlights what appears to be a notable bullish divergence. 

Although XRP has continued to print a lower low, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved in the opposite direction by forming a higher low. This often suggests that sellers are beginning to lose strength, even as prices remain under pressure.

The chart indicates that this divergence shows weakening downside momentum. In other words, the pace of the decline has started to slow despite XRP still trading within its broader correction. 

Bullish divergences often appear near major market bottoms, which makes this one of the main reasons the chart suggests the current decline could be close to ending.

Elliott Wave Structure Suggests Wave 2 Could Be Ending

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the chart favors the view that XRP is close to completing Wave 2. If this interpretation holds, the current correction could soon give way to the next impulsive phase of the cycle.

However, Wave 3 has not yet been confirmed. XRP must first break out of its corrective structure and reclaim a major resistance cluster before the next bullish wave can be considered underway. Until then, the bullish divergence acts only as an early signal, not a full confirmation.

While that confirmation is still pending, the chart identifies several key support levels that could help define the bottom. The first major support zone sits between $1.00 and $0.95. Below that, $0.75 serves as another important level, while the deeper structural support area lies between $0.60 and $0.52 if the decline extends further.

Several Resistance Levels Still Stand in the Way

The bullish outlook could play out only if XRP continues reclaiming higher price levels. According to the chart, sustained closes between $1.30 and $1.60 would provide the first sign that buyers are regaining control.

Beyond that, XRP would need to secure closes above $1.96 and later clear the $3.00 to $3.60 resistance zone. The chart identifies a break above the previous Wave 1 high as the strongest confirmation that Wave 3 has begun.

Each of these resistance levels adds more confidence to the bullish outlook. Until XRP moves above them, the structure remains a developing scenario, not a confirmed breakout.

XRP Could Target $43 in Wave 3

The projected upside comes from the size of the previous impulsive move. According to the chart, Wave 1 delivered gains of about 1,200%. Since Elliott Wave Theory often identifies Wave 3 as the strongest part of the cycle, XRP could record a much larger push during the next phase.

Specifically, Wave 3 could produce gains of around 1,900% to 2,000%, which would amount to nearly a 20-fold increase from the expected bottoming region. Based on that projection, the long-term targets include $6.42, $13.37, $22.55, $29.63, and finally $43.83.

Despite these ambitious targets, price confirmation remains the deciding factor. The bullish divergence suggests XRP may be forming a bottom, but the asset still needs to break above its corrective structure before Wave 3 can be confirmed.

Evernorth Chief Business Officer Sagar Shah has argued that XRP should be judged primarily by its utility, not its market price.

In a Q&A session posted on X, Shah questioned why XRP is still framed mainly as a price story when it was designed to move value across financial systems.

“Why is XRP still discussed as a price story, when it was built for movement?” Shah said.

According to Shah, price is the most visible aspect of any crypto asset because it changes constantly and dominates headlines. However, he said utility is a better measure of XRP’s long-term value.

XRP Value Comes From Utility

Shah said XRP was built to move value efficiently across currencies, markets, and financial systems. He argued that its value depends on what the network enables, not the token’s price.

He pointed to several use cases within the XRP ecosystem, including liquidity provision, cross-border settlements, lending, and tokenized assets.

“The better question isn’t only: ‘What is XRP worth?’ It’s ‘What can XRP make possible?'” Shah remarked.

He added that the real signal is how XRP is used, not how it trades. His comments align with the view of some industry participants that blockchain adoption and real-world use cases matter more than short-term price movements.

Bill Morgan: Price Still Matters

Meanwhile, popular Australian lawyer and XRP supporter Bill Morgan disagreed. He said price discussions remain unavoidable because many investors bought XRP expecting greater utility to eventually drive higher valuations.

“It is still being discussed as a price story because people in the XRP community were told a price story,” Morgan said.

He argued that XRP’s investment thesis has always been tied to adoption. As utility grows, many investors expect the token’s price to rise as well.

Morgan also suggested that Shah’s comments could be relevant to Evernorth investors, as the company’s business model is centered on XRP.

“So Out of Touch”

Meanwhile, X user Dustin Shively criticized the message, arguing it was out of touch with investor expectations. He also questioned whether Evernorth itself was unconcerned with XRP’s price appreciation.

Community figure WoK also said he was surprised Evernorth published the post. 

Another commenter argued that investors naturally care about price performance. The user criticized what they see as a growing tendency among developers and industry figures to emphasize technology while downplaying investment returns.

The discussion highlights a long-running split in the XRP community. One side sees XRP mainly as technology for payments and tokenization, while the other believes that real-world use should eventually lead to a higher XRP price.

XRP wallet activity across major exchanges, including Coinbase, Binance and Crypto.com, has dropped to negative territory.

XRP has continued to trade under pressure over the past few days. Notably, the token trades within the $1.05 to $1.08 range as sellers keep the market on the defensive. 

While the price has struggled to gain momentum, new on-chain data shows that Coinbase, Binance, and Crypto.com have moved into negative XRP wallet territory. This indicates that more wallets are withdrawing XRP than depositing it.

Coinbase Records the Deepest Drop in XRP Wallet Activity

The latest on-chain figures show that XRP withdrawal wallet activity picked up across several major exchanges in early August. Among the major platforms, Coinbase recorded the largest decline.

On Aug. 4, Coinbase’s seven-day net depositing/withdrawing wallets metric dropped to -10,900. In simple terms, wallets withdrawing XRP exceeded wallets depositing it by 10,900 during the seven-day period. 

This was also Coinbase’s weakest reading on record. For context, the figure came in 3.4x lower than its previous low of -3,200, which it recorded in June 2025.

However, the trend did not stop with Coinbase. Data shows that Binance and Crypto.com also entered negative territory on July 17 and remained there through August. 

Binance and Crypto.com Show the Same Pattern

While Binance and Crypto.com recorded declines, neither exchange has fallen below the lows they reached in June 2025.

On Aug. 4, Binance posted a reading of -2,550, its lowest level since June 2025, when the metric fell to -4,380. Crypto.com also declined to -2,290, marking its weakest reading since June 2025. However, this remained above its previous low of -4,470.

Even though Binance and Crypto.com have not yet matched their June 2025 lows, the fact that all three exchanges entered negative territory at the same time confirms the broader trend. 

For context, this metric measures the number of wallets making deposits and withdrawals, not necessarily the amount of XRP moving on or off exchanges. As a result, it indicates how widespread withdrawal activity has become, not the total value of XRP leaving exchanges.

Large XRP Exchange Outflows

The latest wallet figures build on an earlier report that highlighted a rise in XRP outflow transactions involving 100,000 XRP or more on Coinbase and Binance.

On Binance, transfers of more than 1 million XRP made up 55.3% of the exchange’s total daily XRP outflow value on Aug. 3. Analyst Taha noted that this represented the highest share since June 30.

Meanwhile, Coinbase showed a different pattern. Notably, transactions above 1 million XRP made up just 15% of the exchange’s total outflow value on Aug. 3, down from 36% on July 2. 

However, activity increased in the 100,000 to 1 million XRP transaction range on Coinbase. This category grew from roughly 35% on June 1 to 55.8% on Aug. 3, an increase of 20.8 percentage points during that period.

XRP Continues to Face Technical Weakness

Despite the increase in exchange withdrawals, XRP’s short-term picture remains weak. The token currently changes hands around $1.06, down 0.83% over the past day.

XRP continues to trade below its 20-day EMA of $1.0838, 50-day EMA of $1.1163, and 100-day EMA of $1.1971. At the same time, the MACD histogram has turned negative, showing that bearish momentum still dominates in the near term. 

The $1.05 to $1.06 range remains the key support area after attracting buyers several times since late June. However, if the price falls below $1.02, the risk of a deeper decline could increase.

On the upside, the $1.13 to $1.14 range remains the first important resistance area. Beyond that, the 100-day EMA at $1.1971 stands as the next major hurdle that XRP must overcome before any stronger recovery can take shape.

While the technical outlook remains weak, Ripple President Monica Long shared a more positive view on Aug. 4. She called attention to growing institutional interest in 24/7 on-chain trading, which could improve market sentiment over time.

XRP has remained under pressure in recent weeks, and new on-chain data suggests traders in the derivatives market have become more cautious amid declining leverage. 

As the token’s price continues to struggle, derivatives data shows that both leverage and Open Interest (OI) have dropped to their lowest levels in months.

This is according to a recent market exposition from CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnChain. He pointed out that XRP closed at $1.075 on Aug. 3, still below the $1.10 mark. The token now sits close to the lower end of its recent price range. 

XRP Leverage Continues to Decline

CryptoOnChain found that XRP’s Open Interest has dropped to between 362 million and 369 million over the past few days. These are the lowest readings seen during the last six months, a period in which Open Interest ranged from 362 million to 519 million, with an average of 435 million.

The analyst also noted that leverage has fallen to a range of 0.139 to 0.142. This places it close to its six-month low of 0.133. 

Compared with their 90-day averages, both Open Interest and leverage have declined by around 12% to 18%. The data suggests traders have gradually reduced their exposure over time.

Liquidation and Funding Rate Data Tell a Different Story

Meanwhile, CryptoOnChain also highlighted market activity during XRP’s decline from $1.143 to $1.061. The liquidation data showed a fairly even balance between long and short positions instead of the one-sided wipeout that usually comes with a forced deleveraging event. 

On July 27, long liquidations reached $3.24 million, while short liquidations totaled $470,000. By July 29, the situation had reversed, with $640,000 in long liquidations compared with $548,000 in short liquidations.

According to the analyst, this balanced pattern is different from a typical deleveraging event, where one side of the market suffers much larger losses than the other. 

Funding rates also support this view. Throughout the period, funding stayed within a narrow range of -0.009 to +0.010. Even though week-over-week funding changes rose by more than 1,000%, the actual funding levels remained close to neutral.

XRP NVT Crash

The analyst also pointed to XRP’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which has dropped 42.7% below its three-month average. 

During the same period, the network’s transaction count fell by only 23.3%. This suggests that XRP’s market value has fallen much faster than activity on the network. 

On the spot market, Binance deposit addresses remain more than 95% below the quarterly average. Even so, a $2.3 million inflow spike on July 30 shows that liquidity has become thinner, not that it has disappeared.

Considering all these indicators, CryptoOnChain believes the market is going through a quiet reset instead of a major breakdown. 

With leverage and Open Interest sitting near multi-month lows, liquidations remaining balanced, and funding rates staying neutral, traders appear to be reducing risk in an orderly way. 

The analyst added that similar periods in the past have often been followed by either price stabilization or a continuation of the existing trend. The next move will likely depend on whether Open Interest begins to level off or keeps falling along with XRP’s price.

XRP Approaches Key Support

Meanwhile, in the short term, XRP continues to trade under pressure. The token currently changes hands at $1.06, marking a 1.98% decline over the past week. 

Its weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33.2, putting it below the neutral level but still slightly above the oversold mark of 30. This shows that sellers remain in control, although bearish momentum has not yet reached its limit.

Technically, $1.05 remains the key support level to watch. If XRP stays below that level, the price could move toward the important $1.00 psychological support. On the upside, buyers need to push the token back above $1.10 before the short-term outlook can begin to improve.