The Crypto Basic

XRP has had a difficult 2026, with its price falling 43%. However, whales holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP have continued to build their holdings. 

Santiment data shows that this group has added 1.23 billion XRP to its combined balance since the start of the year.

For context, these whales held 10.97 billion XRP at the beginning of 2026. Their combined balance now stands at 12.2 billion XRP, giving them an exact increase of 1.23 billion tokens. 

At XRP’s current price of $1.04, the newly added tokens have a value of about $1.2792 billion. At XRP’s all-time high of $3.66, attained in July 2025, these 1.23 billion tokens would be worth $4.5 billion.

XRP Whales Show Erratic Accumulation Trend

The group’s accumulation has followed an uneven pattern since the start of the year. The buying began well before 2026, as these XRP whales added more than 2.4 billion tokens in November 2025 alone despite the price struggles. Their combined balance rose from 8.4 billion XRP to more than 10.8 billion during that month.

The pace then slowed as XRP remained under pressure. Notably, their holdings moved above 11 billion XRP in December 2025 but later slipped slightly to 10.97 billion XRP by the start of 2026. The group stayed mostly quiet until March 2026, when it began a mild but steady accumulation campaign.

This buying continued through the following months. By July 8, 2026, the whales had pushed their combined holdings to a new all-time high of 12.27 billion XRP. 

Notably, they have distributed some tokens since then, bringing the balance down gradually to 12.2 billion XRP. Despite the recent decline, their current holdings remain far above the 10.97 billion XRP they held at the start of the year.

More Large Holders Enter the Group

The increase in holdings has not come only from existing whales buying more XRP. On-chain data also shows that more addresses have entered the 10 million-to-100 million XRP range.

Specifically, the group had 301 addresses at the start of 2026. Today, it has 313. The number initially fell to 285 in mid-February before recovering. It then climbed steadily to 322 addresses in early July and later dropped to the current 313.

Despite this year’s increase, the number of addresses remains below the group’s all-time high of 351, which it reached in October 2025. Still, the rise from 301 to 313 addresses shows that the group has expanded since the beginning of the year.

Other XRP Whales Show Different Behavior

Other major XRP holders have behaved differently during the same period. Whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP have cut their combined balance from 8.43 billion XRP at the start of the year to 8.13 billion XRP today. This amounts to a distribution of 300 million XRP in 2026.

Meanwhile, whales holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have moved in the other direction, but their increase has been much smaller. This group has added 260 million XRP to its holdings, taking its combined balance to 3.83 billion XRP today.

The 100,000-to-1-million XRP shark group has also reduced its holdings. Specifically, its combined balance has fallen from 6.43 billion XRP at the beginning of 2026 to 6.37 billion XRP today.

Amid the latest XRP price pullback, on-chain and derivatives data show that market positioning has moved increasingly toward the short side.

Notably, investors appear to be preparing for further downside as XRP loses ground and selling pressure strengthens across both the spot and derivatives markets.

XRP Short Positioning Spikes

XRP derivatives positioning has changed over the past 72 hours. Between Aug. 4 and 7, Binance XRP open interest rose from about $180 million to $195 million, an increase of roughly 8%. 

Meanwhile, during the same period, Binance perpetual CVD fell from around -$292 million to -$363 million, representing a decline of about $71 million.

The rise in open interest alongside the drop in perpetual CVD indicates that there are new short positions entering the market. Specifically, traders are adding leverage while selling pressure increases, as more derivatives traders are positioning for another move lower.

Spot Buying Pressure Fades

Further, the spot market has also lost strength. Estimated XRP spot CVD across centralized exchanges dropped from about $235 million to $112 million between Aug. 4 and 7. This represents a decline of more than 52%.

Meanwhile, spot CVD remains positive at $112 million, but the sharp fall from $235 million shows that buying activity has weakened massively. Buyers are still present, but they are no longer providing the same level of support from earlier in the period.

All this data confirms a change in XRP’s short-term market structure. Spot demand has weakened, while derivatives positioning has moved further toward the sell side. The next major signal will be whether Binance open interest continues to rise as perpetual CVD falls further into negative territory.

Long Liquidations Trigger Increased XRP Short Positioning

Coinglass liquidation data shows why most investors have resorted to short positioning. Notably, long liquidations have dominated across several timeframes, indicating that traders who expected XRP to rise have taken most of the losses during the recent decline.

On the 4-hour timeframe, XRP recorded $6.30 million in total liquidations, including $6.27 million from long positions. Longs therefore accounted for 99% of all liquidations during that period. 

Over 12 hours, total liquidations reached $7.51 million, while long liquidations stood at $7.46 million, giving them a 99.3% share.

The trend is also present over 24 hours, when XRP recorded $9.60 million in total liquidations. Long positions accounted for $9.48 million, or 98% of the total. These figures show that bullish traders have borne most of the pressure as XRP moved lower.

XRP Drops Toward $1 as Shorts Increase

The wave of long liquidations has come as XRP fell from the $1.05 to $1.08 range to a current price of about $1.0296. The decline has put more pressure on traders who positioned for a recovery and has strengthened the bearish mood across the market.

As XRP continues to correct and long liquidations rise, more investors have turned bearish, leading to the increased XRP short positioning. However, the growing short bias could eventually work against them if XRP stages a strong recovery.

A sharp rebound could force heavily positioned short traders to close their positions, potentially triggering a short squeeze.

The XRP Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has collapsed to -0.3391, representing one of its weakest readings in recent years.

This places XRP deep in the capitulation zone, a level that has appeared near major XRP market bottoms in previous cycles. 

For context, the NUPL measures whether XRP holders, as a whole, are sitting on unrealized profits or losses. At -0.3391, unrealized losses now outweigh unrealized gains across the market.

This is one of XRP’s lowest NUPL readings since the devastating 2022 bear market. In the past, deeply negative NUPL levels have shown that many investors who bought at higher prices were beginning to lose confidence. 

As fear grows, weaker holders often sell, while long-term investors continue to hold. Previous XRP cycles show that this sort of market condition has appeared near the end of bear markets.

MVRV Shows XRP Trading Below Holders’ Average Cost

Elsewhere, XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio currently stands at 0.7468, meaning the market values XRP about 25.3% below the average price that on-chain holders paid for their coins. 

Whenever the MVRV falls below 1.0, XRP trades below its aggregate cost basis. In previous cycles, this has often encouraged long-term investors to accumulate even when prices continued moving lower in the short term.

XRP showed similar MVRV readings during the 2018-2019 bear market bottom and again throughout the extended 2022 capitulation period before both recoveries began. The current 0.7468 reading puts XRP back in that historical undervaluation range. 

However, today’s conditions have not matched the extreme levels seen in 2022, when NUPL dropped to around -0.75 to -0.80. Essentially, the current structure shares several similarities with earlier market bottoms but has not yet reached the same level of stress.

Historical XRP NUPL Trends

Notably, the NUPL chart covering 2021 through 2026 provides perspective on where XRP stands today. In early 2021, NUPL climbed above 0.50 into the Euphoria-Greed zone, showing that most holders were sitting on healthy unrealized gains. 

As market conditions weakened, the indicator moved through the Belief-Denial and Optimism-Anxiety stages before entering deep Capitulation during 2022, where it eventually bottomed around -0.75 before the next recovery started.

The 2024-2025 bull market briefly changed the trend. Specifically, XRP climbed above $3.00 in early 2025, pushing NUPL back into positive territory and close to euphoric levels. 

However, since then, the asset has remained under heavy selling pressure. XRP has dropped nearly 70% to around $1.06, while NUPL has fallen back to -0.3391. The current path matches the early and middle stages of the 2022 capitulation that eventually led to a market bottom.

XRP Still Trades Below Key EMAs

Currently, XRP trades at around $1.04, below its 20-day EMA at $1.08, 50-day EMA at $1.1134, 100-day EMA at $1.1940, and 200-day moving average at $1.3872. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 39.27, still above the classic oversold region.

XRP also recently broke below a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, confirming that the broader downtrend remains in place. 

The area between $1.00 and $1.03 now acts as the main support zone. If XRP closes a week below $1.00, selling pressure could increase and send the price toward $0.90 to $0.95. 

On the upside, buyers first need to push XRP back above the $1.10 to $1.14 resistance range before any recovery can gain strength. Beyond that, the 200-day moving average near $1.38 represents the next major target.