Analyst Zach Rector recently presented a case for how a $5 billion inflow into XRP via ETFs could drive its price beyond even the $7 level.

Among the key drivers of this outlook are the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts and the anticipated launch of XRP ETFs.

Specifically, Rector cited data showing that the odds of a September rate cut have surged to 90%, with Goldman Sachs predicting three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts starting this fall. He expects the easing monetary environment to inject liquidity into the markets, benefiting XRP.

Notably, the expected rate cut would come at a time when XRP spot ETFs may attain SEC approval, creating a more fertile ground for a price surge. The performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum amid ETF inflows continues to fuel this perspective.

$5 Billion Inflows Could Propel XRP Above $7

Currently trading just above $3, Rector argued that XRP could experience a dramatic price surge if it captures even a fraction of the inflows seen by Ethereum ETFs.

Notably, Ethereum funds attracted $5.4 billion in inflows in July alone. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan highlighted this figure in a recent tweet, drawing comparisons to Bitcoin. He noted that Ethereum is only about 20% the size of Bitcoin, making the scale of those inflows especially significant.

He suggested that if Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $27 billion in a single month, the price implications would be pronounced—emphasizing just how impactful those Ethereum flows really are. Indeed, ETH saw its best performance of the year in July as a result of those inflows.

Meanwhile, Rector argued that XRP may benefit even more from such massive ETF investments. He explained that if XRP ETFs launch this October and attracted a similar $5 billion, XRP’s market cap could increase by $250 billion. This would represent a 138% price gain, pushing XRP past $7 per token.

Rector also stated that this projection is conservative, based on a 50x market cap multiplier. He noted that this multiplier is significantly lower than some of the more optimistic estimates he previously discussed.

$10 to $20 XRP Within Reach

At the same time, Rector remains confident that XRP could reach $10 to $20 within a year of ETF approval, assuming inflows are on par with or exceed Ethereum’s recent figures.

Adding to the bullish outlook is the anticipated conclusion of the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple. Rector said that once retail investors realize the Ripple case is finally over, optimism will fuel the next leg of the XRP rally.

Notably, the SEC and Ripple are expected to drop their appeals by mid-August. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel confirmed that the appeal process is nearing completion.

Many have highlighted August 15 as a potential date for an official resolution as the SEC and Ripple are to provide a status update to the appeals court by then.

A recent thread by long-time crypto investor Pumpius proposed that 1 XRP could eventually be worth $1,000,000 per coin.

Indeed, that number sounds outrageous for a coin currently trading at just $2. However, the logic behind it is based on a future where XRP powers the backbone of a tokenized global economy.

“Ripple Is Quietly Tokenizing the Real World”

According to Pumpius, while other crypto projects chase social media attention and speculative pumps, Ripple is laying the groundwork for something bigger. He claims the company is quietly moving real-world assets (RWAs) onto the blockchain. Some of the initiatives he cites include:

• A government-backed real estate tokenization pilot in Colombia
• XRP Ledger upgrades like XLS-20 and XLS-30, enabling NFT and token issuance
• Central bank digital currency (CBDC) infrastructure already deployed by Ripple
• A $100 million commitment to tokenizing carbon markets
• Collaborations with regulated firms like Archax and OpenEden

These developments suggest Ripple isn’t just building a payment solution but creating a platform for transferring all forms of value.

The Path to a Tokenized World Worth $1 Quadrillion

Furthermore, Pumpius cites forecasts from the Boston Consulting Group and Citi, which expect $16 trillion worth of RWAs to be tokenized by 2030. But he believes that’s only the beginning.

If global assets, including $300 trillion in real estate, $100 trillion in stocks, and over $100 trillion in bonds, along with currencies and commodities, are all brought on-chain, the tokenized economy could exceed $1 quadrillion in value. In such a world, a universal bridge asset would be necessary, and according to Pumpius, XRP is designed to fulfill that role.

XRP is Built for Movement, Not Storage

Unlike Bitcoin, which is often seen as a store of value, XRP is for high-speed value transfer. Its features include:

• 3–5 second settlement times
• A built-in decentralized exchange (DEX) and automated market maker (AMM)
• Native support for multiple assets
• Programmability through Hooks and sidechains
• A regulatory-focused architecture

Suppose XRP becomes the core liquidity layer for cross-asset transfers in a fully tokenized world. In that case, each XRP might represent a fractional claim on a system that moves trillions in daily volume, in Pumpius’s view.

The Math Behind $1M XRP

With a total supply of 100 billion XRP, and much of it locked or burned, scarcity plays a role. Pumpius argues that if XRP facilitates global settlement at scale, a million-dollar valuation per coin is not a meme but a liquidity model driven by:

• Massive asset flows
• Limited supply
• Dominance in cross-chain infrastructure

“You won’t buy a house with XRP,” he wrote. “Your house might be XRP.”

Skeptics will naturally dismiss the idea of $1 million per XRP as pure fantasy. However, history has shown that revolutionary technologies often begin with seemingly unthinkable projections.

Pumpius noted that just as few believed in the Internet’s impact in 1994, the idea of XRP powering a quadrillion-dollar tokenized economy may be either ahead of its time or right on time.

5/🧵 Why $1,000,000 XRP Isn’t a Meme — It’s a Model

1 quadrillion in assets tokenized.
100 billion XRP supply (with less in circulation).
Do the math.
If XRP sits at the center of global settlement, facilitating trillions in daily tokenized flows…

Then $1,000,000 per XRP…

— Pumpius (@pumpius) May 16, 2025

Previous Call for XRP to $1 Million

Meanwhile, the idea of XRP reaching $1 million price is not entirely new in the XRP community. In a viral video, XDC Foundation developer Quincy Jones proposed that XRP’s value could soar to $100, $100,000, or even $1 million, depending on the volume of assets issued on its network. 

He explained that XRP acts as a liquidity bridge between financial instruments, such as bonds, stocks, and currencies, meaning its value is directly linked to the volume of transactions it supports.

Using a hypothetical scenario involving $100 trillion in equity and $500 million in debt issued on the XRP Ledger, Jones suggested such demand could drive prices dramatically higher. Meanwhile, he acknowledged the speculative nature of these predictions.

A recent investment report from Bitwise has projected several long-term XRP price predictions, presenting a data-driven forecast for where XRP could stand by 2030.

The firm used a valuation model inspired by the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to build three price scenarios. Notably, each one reflects different outcomes for regulation, adoption, and overall market growth, offering a clear view of what could drive XRP’s value over the next five years.

Bitwise Valuation Metrics for XRP Pricing 

Interestingly, in its forecast, Bitwise included several important variables in its model. Specifically, the model factors in alpha (which captures XRP-specific drivers like regulatory clarity or major institutional partnerships), beta (which measures XRP’s link to the broader crypto market and sits at 1.92), and a market return assumption of 60%, based on Bitcoin climbing to $1 million by 2029. 

Moreover, the model also adjusts results through a volatility-based discount factor that changes depending on XRP’s historical risk profile.

XRP Price Predictions from Bitwise

Notably, in the bear case, Bitwise expects XRP to fall short in payments and tokenization. The model uses a -50% alpha and a 147% volatility rate, creating a discount factor of 0.23. This scenario produces a steep -59% annual return, with XRP sinking from $3.08 today to just $0.13 by 2030.

Meanwhile, for the bull case, Bitwise assumes XRP holds its current growth pace. The firm doesn’t expect explosive expansion but sees steady adoption and minimal regulatory setbacks. Also, with alpha at zero and volatility around 89%, the discount factor hits 0.41. This leads to a projected annual return of 27%, pushing XRP to about $12.68 by 2030.

However, in the max case, XRP could grab a meaningful slice of the global payments and tokenization markets. Bitwise sets alpha at 1% and assumes lower volatility of 75%, which brings the discount factor to 0.47. This results in a 46% annual return and a potential price of $29.32 in five years. 

At this level, XRP would carry a $2.9 trillion market cap, giving it roughly 13.8% of Bitcoin’s projected market size if Bitcoin reaches $1 million.

Bitwise stressed that XRP doesn’t need to dominate these markets to succeed. Notably, even a small share of trillion-dollar sectors like tokenization could deliver huge upside. The firm also pointed out that increased network use could amplify the burn rate of XRP fees, slowly reducing supply and adding long-term price pressure.

Bitwise Bullish on XRP Futures Growth 

Meanwhile, besides the XRP price predictions, the Bitwise report also analyzed XRP’s structure and long-term value drivers. 

For one, Bitwise broke down XRP’s on-chain into three main functions. Specifically, it powers transaction fees, supports the ledger’s spam control mechanism through reserve requirements, and serves as a bridge currency in multi-asset transfers. 

While some critics question XRP’s real-world utility, Bitwise noted that it sees steady progress in this regard. It pointed out that companies like SBI Remit and MoneyMatch already use XRP-based solutions for fast, cross-border transfers in parts of Asia and other underserved markets.

Bitwise further highlighted the XRP Ledger’s position in the race for asset tokenization. The network already supports tokenized assets and recently rolled out key features like automated market makers, decentralized identity tools, and multipurpose tokens. 

With these factors already in place, the asset manager sees a path for XRP to serve regulated financial institutions looking to tokenize real-world assets. In a previous report, Bitwise even suggested that buying XRP is a clean way of investing in the future of tokenization.

The firm also believes a clearer regulatory landscape will lead to more growth. Following the 2024 U.S. election and a more crypto-friendly administration, XRP gained over 400% in Q4. Bitwise links that rally to rising investor confidence now that legal threats have eased.