The Crypto Basic

XRP is showing deleveraging signs that resemble the conditions before its sharp rally in late 2024. 

Recent market data shows a decline in speculative trading, with Binance’s estimated leverage ratio (ELR) dropping to 0.16, one of its lowest readings since November 2024.

For the uninitiated, the estimated leverage rating metric compares open interest with exchange reserves to show how much leverage traders are using.

The current figure is also close to the April 2026 low of 0.15, which appeared during XRP’s earlier correction. Meanwhile, amid these conditions, XRP has dropped about 70% from its 2025 high of $3.6 and now trades around $1.10.

What Lower Leverage Means for XRP

The decline in the ELR mainly indicates a drop in leveraged futures positions, not necessarily changes in spot holdings. 

As the market corrected, many leveraged trades were closed, causing open interest to fall. Binance’s XRP open interest now stands at about $375 million, below the highs seen over the past year.

This sort of deleveraging often leaves the market in a healthier position. Notably, high leverage increases the risk of forced liquidations, where one liquidation triggers another and causes sharp price swings. 

However, when leverage falls, that risk becomes smaller. As a result, the market tends to become more stable, giving future price moves a stronger foundation. Current derivatives data suggests speculative trading has cooled, leaving the market far less overheated than it was before.

The Current Situation Looks Similar to 2024

The present market structure shares several similarities with the period before XRP’s late-2024 rally. During the middle of 2024, XRP traded near $0.40 while the estimated leverage ratio gradually dropped to around 0.05, the lowest point of that cycle. 

While the price moved within a narrow range for months, the derivatives market quietly reset before buying momentum returned.

This reset eventually led to a rally of more than 790%, lifting XRP above $3.6 as leverage gradually increased alongside the price.

If XRP were to repeat the same percentage gain from its current price of about $1.10, it would reach roughly $9.80. However, this figure only represents a mathematical comparison with the previous rally and should not be viewed as a price prediction.

Institutional forecasts remain much more cautious. Standard Chartered recently lowered its year-end 2026 XRP target from $8 to $2.8, but the bank maintained its 2030 target at $28.

XRP Sees Bullish Whale Activity

On-chain activity also points to growing confidence among large investors. Whale wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP added about 1.3 billion XRP within a 48-hour period in early March 2026.

Large amounts of XRP also continued leaving exchanges. On March 10, investors moved roughly $738 million worth of XRP into cold wallets in a single day, making it one of the largest exchange outflows of the year. 

Whale buying remained strong through April, when the biggest holders purchased more than 11 million XRP each day, marking the fastest pace of accumulation in around 10 months.

The trend continued into July. Transfers of more than 1 million XRP on Coinbase increased from about 10% of all withdrawals on June 16 to 25.7% by July 1. Data also shows that more than 90% of XRP leaving exchanges now goes into private wallets controlled by large holders instead of returning to trading platforms.

XRP has entered the fifth and final stage of a multi-wave Elliott Wave pattern that started in late June, currently pointing to several short-term price targets. 

Specifically, the pattern places the first target at $1.23062, while a stronger rally could push the price as high as $1.40.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.09810, up 0.05% on the day. Meanwhile, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47.98, showing neutral momentum and suggesting the market still has room to move either higher or lower.

This Elliott Wave structure has formed on the 4-hour timeframe since XRP reached a low of $1.012 on June 26. Since then, the market has completed the first four waves of the pattern and has now moved into the middle of the fifth and final wave.

XRP Elliott Waves One to Three

The current pattern began on June 26, when XRP dropped to $1.012 before quickly rebounding higher. The first wave lifted the price from that low to $1.07 by June 27.

Then, the second wave unfolded as an ABC correction across June 29 and June 30. During this phase, sub-wave A pulled XRP from $1.07 down to $1.03 by June 29. 

Sub-wave B followed with a rebound to $1.076 later that same day. Finally, sub-wave C completed the correction by pushing the price back to $1.02 on June 30, marking the end of the larger wave two.

From here, wave three started at the $1.02 low and produced the strongest rally in the entire sequence. Specifically, XRP climbed to $1.18 by July 4, gaining $0.16, or about 15.7%, from the bottom of the wave to its peak.

This $1.18 level remains the highest point reached during the current Elliott Wave structure and now acts as the level that the fifth wave needs to move above to reach its projected targets.

Wave Four Leads to an XRP Correction

After reaching $1.18, XRP entered wave four, which represented the most detailed correction in the entire pattern. This phase completed both a standard ABC correction and an internal five-sub-wave structure at the same time.

Within the ABC pattern, sub-wave A pulled the price from $1.18 down to $1.12. Sub-wave B then lifted XRP back to $1.16, while sub-wave C finished the correction by bringing the price down to $1.06 on July 13.

At the same time, the internal five-wave structure within wave four also ended at $1.06 on July 13, with the fifth internal sub-wave marking the end of the correction. 

Short-Term XRP Price Targets

Wave five began from the $1.06 low and now forms in five sub-waves. The first sub-wave lifted XRP from $1.06 to $1.13 by July 15 before the market entered the current second sub-wave correction. The pullback has taken the price back to around $1.09 at press time, a decline of about $0.04 from the $1.13 high.

The $1.09 area has now become an important support zone because it closely matches the horizontal reference level at $1.09957. 

As long as XRP holds above this area, the current fifth-wave structure remains valid. However, if the price falls below the wave four low of $1.06, the bullish Elliott Wave count would no longer apply, and a more bearish outlook would become the leading scenario.

If the correction around $1.09 ends as expected, the next move could take XRP to $1.17 during sub-wave three. That could be followed by a pullback to $1.14 in sub-wave four before the final fifth sub-wave targets the 1.0 Fibonacci extension at $1.23062.

If buying momentum continues after that, the next upside target sits at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of $1.33924. Under the strongest bullish scenario, the current fifth-wave structure could extend to $1.40. 

While the bullish Elliott Wave count remains the main outlook, the same price action also supports a valid bearish interpretation without breaking any of Elliott Wave theory’s main rules. Under that view, the current structure could still lead to another move lower instead of continuing higher.