The Crypto Basic

XRP has entered a difficult position after falling below all four of its major exponential moving averages (EMAs) on the daily chart.

At the time of writing, the token trades at $1.0863, below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. This situation has formed what traders commonly call an EMA waterfall, a pattern that shows sellers have gained control across both the short and long term.

When an asset trades below all of its key EMAs, the moving averages no longer serve as support and instead become resistance levels. As things stand, XRP faces several barriers before it can build a stronger recovery, and the current chart continues to favor the bears.

XRP Collapses Below Key EMAs

The bearish structure developed gradually at the start of this year. Notably, the first major breakdown came on Jan. 6, 2026, when XRP fell below its 200-day EMA after dropping under $2.34. The next day, it also lost the 100-day EMA as the price slipped below $2.22.

The shorter-term moving averages held for several more days, but they eventually gave way as well. On Jan. 18, XRP dropped below the 20-day EMA at $2.05 and the 50-day EMA at $2.07, completing the move below all four major EMAs.

The asset recovered above the 20-day and 50-day EMAs weeks later but recently collapsed below them again amid renewed bearish pressure.

Buyers Face Several Resistance Levels

With XRP now trading below every major EMA, each moving average has become a resistance level. The closest obstacle sits at the 20-day EMA, currently at $1.1004. Buyers need to push the price above this level before any meaningful recovery can begin.

Even if XRP moves above the 20-day EMA, more resistance lies ahead. Specifically, the 50-day EMA stands at $1.1487, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.2446. Higher still, the 200-day EMA sits at $1.4502, making it the biggest barrier on the chart.

The gap between the current price and the 200-day EMA also shows how much ground XRP needs to recover. From $1.0863, the asset would have to climb about 33.5% to reach that long-term average.

Even then, reaching the 200-day EMA alone would not confirm a trend reversal because buyers would still need to break above it and hold those gains.

For now, the first sign of improving strength would be a sustained daily close above the 20-day EMA. Until that happens, the overall picture continues to point to further downside.

XRP Descending Triangle Breakout

Meanwhile, XRP has broken above a descending triangle that guided its price from the January 2026 peak near $2.50. The upper trendline connects a series of lower highs, while the lower trendline provides horizontal support at the $1 psychological mark.

Notably, the market currently sees mixed technical signals. Specifically, the EMA structure points to continued weakness, but XRP has already broken above the triangle’s upper trendline. 

In the past, XRP attempted to break above the triangle, but the move did not last. In mid-May, the token climbed above $1.43 and briefly moved beyond the upper trendline. However, buyers could not keep the momentum going, allowing the price to fall back inside the pattern.

A second breakout attempt came on July 14, which proved successful. However, by July 15, XRP had already dropped back below both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs.

The Next Move May Depend on These Levels

The most important support now sits along the triangle’s upper trendline, which currently falls at $1.06. If XRP closes below that support on the daily chart, it would confirm a breakdown back into the triangle and could send the price toward the next major support area between $0.75 and $0.80.

On the upside, buyers must first reclaim the 20-day EMA at $1.1004 before they can build any real momentum. Above that, the upper trendline of the triangle and the 50-day EMA at $1.1487 create a strong resistance zone between $1.10 and $1.15.

XRP has continued to trade within a falling channel since dropping from the $3.6 peak, with the structure now mapping a path above $3.

Notably, for almost a year, the token has formed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows while staying between two downward-sloping parallel trend lines. At the time of the analysis, XRP changes hands at $1.08, with traders pondering whether the correction is close to ending.

Most analysts see a falling channel that appears after a strong rally as a correction, not necessarily the start of a long-term downtrend. 

In XRP’s case, the upper trend line has repeatedly stopped buying pressure, while the lower boundary has continued to attract buyers during sharp declines. Amid this pattern, the price has remained inside the channel, with each swing becoming smaller over time.

Repeated Breakout Attempts Continue to Fall Short

XRP has tested the upper boundary of the channel several times, but none of those attempts has resulted in a lasting breakout. The first major rally reached $3.18 in September 2025 before sellers pushed the price back into the channel. 

Another move followed in October 2025, but ended at $3.10. Each rally after that lost more strength. In early January 2026, XRP climbed only to $2.31 before turning lower. 

The next attempt reached $1.48 in May 2026, while the latest recovery topped out at $1.29 in June 2026. This $1.29 level had served as a major support area between February and June 2026, but it later became resistance after the price fell below it.

This series of failed breakouts points to weakening buying momentum. Every recovery has ended below the previous one, showing that sellers have continued to gain control throughout the correction.

Lower Support Levels Reflect a Gradual Loss of Strength

Buyers have also stepped in several times to defend the lower edge of the channel. XRP first found support at $2.72 in August 2025 before bouncing higher. It later tested $2.19 in October 2025, $1.77 in December 2025, $1.28 in April 2026, and $1.05 in June 2026.

Although buyers managed to lift the price after each decline, every successful defense came at a lower level than the one before it. This suggests that buyers have remained active, but they have not regained enough strength to reverse the broader trend.

As long as this pattern continues, the falling channel remains the dominant structure on the chart. XRP will likely stay under pressure until it breaks above the channel in a convincing way.

Chart Points to One More Dip Before a Move Toward $3.18

The current chart pattern suggests that XRP could make one more move lower before the correction ends. The projected target stands at $0.9223, which matches the lower boundary of the falling channel. 

A drop to that level would mark the deepest point of the correction and represent about a 75% decline from the July 2025 peak of $3.60.

If buyers defend $0.9223, the chart outlines a step-by-step recovery. The first target sits at $1.29, where previous support has turned into resistance. From there, XRP could pull back to $1.11 to confirm that level as new support.

If this support holds, the next move could carry XRP to $1.81, which matches the support area formed in December 2025. The chart then suggests another short pullback to $1.55 before a stronger rally begins. 

From that point, XRP could climb toward $3.18, a level that matches both the failed breakout high from September 2025 and a major resistance zone. Reaching $3.18 would also mark a shift from lower highs and lower lows to higher highs and higher lows, confirming that the long correction has ended.