The Crypto Basic

XRP recently posted the lowest monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading in its entire history amid the steep June 2026 price crash. 

Specifically, in June 2026, XRP’s monthly RSI closed at 40.59 after the price dropped by 21.97% during the month. This decline marked XRP’s biggest monthly loss since February 2025 and showed how strong the recent downward pressure has been.

The RSI level of 40.59 is especially important because it marks XRP’s steepest ever monthly reading, even lower than what XRP recorded during major bearish periods, including the COVID crash in March 2020 and the Terra ecosystem collapse in May 2022. 

Interestingly, XRP has managed to stay above the pivotal $1 price level despite the deeply oversold RSI. Notably, the price closed June at $1.03. So far in July 2026, XRP has seen a slight bounce to $1.05, but the RSI remains weak at 40.97 at press time. This suggests that while the price has stabilized a bit, momentum is still low.

When XRP RSI Floor Came Before Upward Rallies

Historical data shows that when XRP’s monthly RSI falls to such low levels, it often indicates that the market is close to the cycle bottom or a rebound may be imminent.

For instance, in October 2024, XRP dropped by 16.74%, which pushed the Relative Strength Index down from 52.57 in the previous month to 48.27.

Soon after, the market turned upward in November 2024, triggered by strong bullish sentiment following Donald Trump’s election victory. XRP eventually climbed from $0.50 at the October close to a high of $3.4 by January 2025.

Another example comes from February 2017, when XRP declined by 12.28%, bringing the RSI down to 47.18. Although the cycle bottom had already formed at $0.0030 in January 2017, the drop in RSI still came just before a strong rally. 

Starting in March 2017, XRP pushed higher and eventually reached $3.31 in January 2018. During this period, the price increased by more than 59,000%.

When XRP RSI Floor Marked Cycle Bottoms

In other cases, the steep RSI drop marked the cycle low. For instance, in June 2022, XRP fell by 21.01% during a wider market downturn caused by the Terra collapse in May 2022. 

During that period, the RSI dropped to 43.91, which was its lowest level at the time. Interestingly, this RSI floor also coincided with XRP’s bottom of $0.28 in that same month. 

Although a full recovery took nearly two years, the price never went below $0.28 after June 2022, with the market recording several short-term rallies before the stronger move in November 2024.

In addition, XRP showed similar behavior during the COVID crash in March 2020. Notably, the price fell by 24.06% that month, coinciding with an RSI drop to 43.75. 

Just like in June 2022, the RSI drop in March 2020 occurred alongside XRP’s cycle low of $0.1140 during that downturn. In the months that followed, the market gradually improved, leading to a peak of $1.96 by April 2021.

XRP Now Deeply Oversold

Now, with the RSI at 40.59 in June 2026, XRP is again in a zone that has often appeared near major turning points. The recent June 2026 low of $1.0079 could mark the bottom of the current downtrend, or the RSI floor could mean that a recovery may begin soon.

Another momentum indicator confirms XRP’s oversold position. Notably, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) dropped to -134.61 in June 2026, its lowest level since the COVID crash in March 2020, about six years ago. 

What stands out is that XRP has reached these levels while still holding above $1. If past patterns play out again, this could set the stage for a recovery. Such a move could even push XRP toward a new all-time high.

That said, the broader market still looks weak, and this could delay any recovery. While history suggests that very low RSI levels often come before a rebound, it is still unclear when the move might begin.

XRP analyst James Dula says new lending infrastructure on the XRP Ledger could eventually let holders borrow against their XRP without selling it. 

He also believes they could earn yield on unused XRP to help offset borrowing costs.

In a post on X, Dula linked several recent developments. These include Coinbase’s XRP-backed loans, government-backed crypto mortgage structures, and proposed XRP Ledger lending features. He argued that together they could create a new financial model for long-term XRP holders.

Borrow Against XRP Without Selling

According to Dula, XRP holders can already use their tokens as collateral for crypto-backed loans through Coinbase, which added XRP as eligible collateral earlier this year.

He used a hypothetical example. An investor holding 10,000 XRP worth about $1 million, assuming an XRP price of $100, could pledge 2,500 XRP valued at around $250,000. With a loan-to-value ratio of roughly 49%, the investor could borrow about $120,000 in USDC without selling their XRP.

Dula said the transaction would be treated as a loan rather than a sale. That means it would not trigger a taxable capital gains event while allowing the investor to keep exposure to potential future XRP price gains.

Crypto-Backed Mortgages Show Where the Market Is Heading

Dula also pointed to a recent milestone involving Better Home & Finance and Coinbase. The companies completed the first Fannie Mae-backed mortgage in the United States using Bitcoin as collateral.

He said the structure combines a traditional mortgage with a separate crypto-backed loan for the down payment. Unlike many crypto-backed loans, the pledged Bitcoin is not automatically liquidated if its price falls, as long as the borrower continues making mortgage payments.

Although XRP is not supported under that program, Dula said it shows how crypto-backed financing could evolve. He believes similar structures could eventually be expanded to include XRP.

Proposed XRPL Lending Features Could Add Yield

Looking ahead, Dula said proposed XRP Ledger lending features, including XLS-66d, could further expand XRP’s utility.

In his scenario, XRP that is not used as collateral could be deposited into a Single Asset Vault. There, it would earn yield by supplying liquidity to institutional borrowers.

Assuming annual yields of 4% to 7%, Dula estimated that 7,500 XRP valued at $100 each could generate between $30,000 and $52,000 a year.

He compared that with a hypothetical borrowing cost of about 3.2% annually on the pledged XRP. That would result in interest expenses of roughly $3,800 per year.

According to Dula, the yield earned from the unpledged XRP could exceed the cost of servicing the loan. That could allow holders to borrow against their XRP, keep their long-term position, and cover financing costs through lending income.

Dula concluded that collateralized lending, institutional liquidity pools, and yield-generating vaults represent infrastructure that is gradually being built for digital assets. However, he acknowledged that some XRP-specific features, including XLS-66d, are still proposals and are not yet available.

XRP has now closed below the 200-week moving average for the first time since the 2024 rally, confirming the overall bearish market trend. 

This move comes during the ongoing downtrend that started in Q4 2025 and has now lasted for ten months. Despite the decline, past trends suggest that a drop below this major moving average after an uptrend can indicate that a possible bottom may be forming.

However, it does not necessarily mean prices will recover right away. In most cases, this phase represents a change toward stabilization, not an immediate rebound.

XRP Closes Below 200WMA

Specifically, in the first week of June, XRP closed at $1.155, while the 200-week moving average stood at $1.189, confirming the breakdown. 

This marked the first time XRP traded below this level and the first weekly close under it since the first week of November 2024, just before the Donald Trump-led market rally.

The 200WMA represents the average price over about four years of weekly closes, and this makes it an important long-term benchmark. When prices stay below it, it shows that most medium- and long-term holders are now holding at a loss.

Since the breakdown, XRP has now spent three weeks below the 200WMA and is heading into a fourth week. At the time of writing, XRP trades at $1.0584, while the moving average has climbed to $1.20.

The 200WMA has also flipped from dynamic support to resistance. This means that if price moves back toward it, sellers are more likely to step in, which could limit any short-term recovery attempts.

How XRP Behaved in 2022

A similar breakdown occurred during the Terra ecosystem collapse in May 2022, when XRP closed below the 200WMA in the second week of May 2022 for the first time in over a year. 

After that, XRP remained below the moving average for five weeks before reaching a cycle low of $0.28 in June 2022.

Although this level marked the bottom, recovery did not happen quickly. Specifically, XRP did not begin a clear uptrend until November 2024, more than two years later. 

During that time, the price oscillated above and below the 200WMA multiple times before finally breaking above it during the November 2024 rally, which confirmed a stronger trend.

XRP’s 2019 Case

Before that, XRP showed a similar pattern in August 2019, when it closed below the 200WMA after an uptrend. It then stayed below the moving average for five weeks and reached a low of $0.22 in September 2019, which seemed like a bottom at the time.

However, the recovery that followed this floor price failed, and XRP dropped below the moving average again, eventually falling further to $0.11 in March 2020, about seven months after the initial breakdown. 

Nonetheless, most analysts see this as an exception because it was caused by the COVID-19 market crash, an unexpected global Black Swan event.

Meanwhile, after reaching the $0.11 bottom in March 2020, XRP eventually staged a recovery effort. The price later moved back above the 200WMA in January 2021, which led to a strong rally that pushed the asset up to $1.96 by April 2021.

Is This a Buying Opportunity?

If no major external shock occurs, XRP could follow the 2022 pattern, where it formed a bottom within a few weeks after falling below the 200WMA. 

However, history shows that reaching a bottom does not mean a new bull run will begin immediately. In the 2022 cycle, XRP still spent nearly two years moving around the 200WMA, struggling to stay above it before finally breaking out.

For now, even if XRP finds a bottom soon, the market may only see short-term relief rallies instead of a strong recovery. A longer period of sideways movement could come before any clear uptrend begins.

The monthly XRP Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has dropped to its lowest level in six years, closing way below the -100 baseline in June.

The decline came amid a weak close in June, when the indicator stood at -134.61 following a nearly 22% drop in XRP’s price for the month. This made June the asset’s worst monthly performance since February 2025.

XRP Commodity Channel Index Hits 6-Year Low

While XRP has opened July with a small rebound, rising 0.61% to trade at $1.04487, the CCI has collapsed further this new month, currently sitting at -137.30. 

For context, when the CCI falls below -100, it usually points to oversold conditions. At -137.30, XRP now sits far below its 20-period average, suggesting that the current level of selling may not last for long.

The last time XRP’s CCI reached a similar level was in March 2020, during the COVID-19 market crash, when the price dropped below $0.20. During this period, the Commodity Channel Index crashed to -140.67, marking XRP’s bottom for that downturn.

After the crash, XRP’s price recovered considerably and climbed to around $1.96 within the following year. While it is important to consider this historical context, it does not necessarily mean the same kind of recovery will happen again.

How the Current Decline Compares to 2020

The 1-month chart shows a similarity between the CCI low in March 2020 and the one recorded in June 2026, as both sit at nearly the same depth below the oversold level. 

However, the reasons behind the two drops are different. In 2020, the market fell quickly due to an external shock and then recovered just as fast. This time, XRP has been moving down gradually since Q4 2025 within a falling channel.

The CCI also shows a secondary signal line at -3.69, as the main CCI remains at -137.30. The gap between these two lines creates room for a possible crossover, which traders often see as an early sign of recovery. 

However, for now, no crossover has happened, so the oversold reading alone does not confirm a reversal. The price still needs to show clear signs of strength before any change in direction could emerge.

XRP Ichimoku Cloud Confirms Bearish Trend

Meanwhile, the monthly Ichimoku Cloud confirms the extent of the ongoing bearish trend, as all four main components remain above XRP’s current price of $1.04487. 

Specifically, the Tenkan-sen stands at $1.79398, while the Kijun-sen sits higher at $2.02423, placing it about 94% above the current price. Since the Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen, the chart confirms a bearish crossover, showing that short-term movement still follows the broader downtrend.

Further, Senkou Span A is at $1.90910, and Senkou Span B is at $1.97650, forming a bearish cloud where Span B stays above Span A. This presents a strong resistance zone between $1.90910 and $2.02423, meaning XRP must push through a tight range of about $0.12 before the structure can turn neutral.

The only slightly positive signal comes from the Chikou Span, which compares the current price of $1.04487 with past price action from May 2024, when XRP traded below $1.00. The position gives a mild bullish signal but has little weight since the rest of the indicators remain clearly bearish.

XRP Falling Channel and Key Price Levels

Also, XRP has moved within a falling channel since October 2025, forming a downward pattern across nine monthly candles. The upper boundary of this channel now sits between $1.40 and $1.60, while the lower boundary points to a range between $0.85 and $0.90. This lower area lines up with a key support level at $0.87493.

At the moment, XRP trades at $1.04487, just $0.04487 above the important $1.00 level. If the price closes below $1.00 on the monthly chart, it would break a key level that supported the early stages of the 2024 rally. 

If this happens, the next support comes in at $0.87493, followed by $0.66158, a level last seen in early 2023 and about 37% below the current price.

On the upside, XRP faces multiple resistance levels. It must first move past $1.20, then break above the channel’s upper boundary between $1.40 and $1.60. 

After that, it would need to clear the Tenkan-sen at $1.79398, the cloud between $1.90910 and $1.97650, and finally the Kijun-sen at $2.02423. Only a strong move above all these levels would shift the overall trend from bearish to neutral.