The Crypto Basic

XRP currently trades within a multi-year cup and handle pattern, which now eyes a retest of the Gaussian filter line before an eventual breakout.

The crypto market has not fared well since Q4 2025, and XRP remains one of the biggest victims of this downtrend. Notably, XRP has crashed more than 71% from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.66, now retesting the $1 mark, as it trades for $1.04.

Interestingly, chart data shows that this downtrend may actually be part of a larger cup and handle pattern that has guided XRP’s price action since 2018. The pattern now seems to be pushing XRP toward a retest of the Gaussian filter line before an eventual breakout.

XRP Cup and Handle Pattern

For the uninitiated, a cup and handle pattern forms when an asset’s price first drops and then rises to create a rounded “cup,” followed by a smaller pullback that forms the “handle.” After the formation of the handle, buyers push prices higher, leading to an uptrend.

With XRP, the cup played out when the token collapsed from the $3.31 peak in January 2018, hit a floor of $0.1140, and then recovered through a series of swings and declines across multiple cycles to the $3.66 all-time high in July 2025.

From this peak, the prices started pulling back, coinciding with the broader market downturn that started in October 2025. Since then, XRP has continued to record steep declines, effectively forming the handle. 

Data from the chart confirms that XRP may now be approaching the lower trendline of the handle, and this area could act as a strong support level capable of introducing buying pressure for an uptrend. 

Imminent Gaussian Filter Line Retest

Importantly, this handle trendline seems to align with the Gaussian filter line, which has acted as a reliable support level that marked XRP’s bottom across several bear markets. Specifically, each time XRP retested this Gaussian filter line, it coincided with the bottom or was close to the bottom.

This pattern first played out in early 2017, when XRP retested the line as it dropped to $0.00525 in March. From here, the asset recorded a massive upsurge, pushing toward $3.31 by January 2018.

XRP again retested the Gaussian filter line in November 2019, when it crashed to $0.20041. While this did not mark the exact bottom, it was close to the cycle floor, as XRP eventually reached a bottom of $0.1140 by March 2020 before rebounding.

Meanwhile, in June 2022, shortly after the Terra ecosystem implosion, XRP fell to $0.28, effectively retesting the Gaussian line. This again marked the bottom. In addition, the XRP drop to $0.49 in November 2024 coincided with a retest of the line and preceded the Trump-led upsurge.

XRP Eyeing Gaussian Retest Before Rebound

Now, the lower trendline of the cup’s handle aligns with the Gaussian filter line at $0.8550, confirming the importance of this price area. Once XRP’s price retests this area and support holds, it could signal the return of buying pressure.

From here, XRP would have to first breach the handle’s upper trendline around the $1.35 to $1.40 price range and then break above the neckline by reclaiming the $3.66 high to confirm a full-blown price reversal. The first major target for this reversal could align with the $8 mark identified by Standard Chartered.

The XRP UTXO Realized Price Distribution metric has identified XRP’s most potent support below $1, where 1.16 billion XRP transacted.

The ongoing crypto market downturn has lingered into its ninth month, and XRP remains one of the biggest victims, having collapsed by more than 71% from its all-time high of $3.66. With XRP now trading for $1.04, investors continue to assess where it could finally find its bottom.

Interestingly, data from the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicator reveals important price levels below $1 traders should watch for possible support, with the strongest support sitting at $0.62, where up to 1.16 billion XRP transacted.

Next XRP Support Level Below $1

For context, this UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows how much of XRP’s supply last moved at different price levels, indicating where holders bought their coins. It highlights price zones with heavy accumulation by grouping these “realized prices” into bands.

Areas with large concentrations of coins often act as support, because many holders are in profit or near breakeven there and are less likely to sell, while buyers may step in again. As a result, the URPD metric helps to spot strong historical demand zones where the price is more likely to stabilize or bounce.

Now, with XRP already retesting the $1 psychological mark, some market participants expect a potential breakdown below this mark. Should this play out, the URPD suggests that the next important support area for XRP could sit at the $0.80 price level, where 923 million XRP transacted.

Interestingly, multiple market analysts have long identified the $0.8 area as a potential magnet for XRP, suggesting that the price could gravitate toward this area. However, these analysts believe the $0.8 level could act as XRP’s bottom for the ongoing downtrend.

Why the $0.62 Area is Important 

Meanwhile, below $0.8 lies a massive volume block around $0.62. The last time XRP saw the $0.62 level was in November 2024 during its meteoric upsurge from $0.5 on the back of the Donald Trump-led market rally. 

This explains the large volume block, as most investors entered the market at this time to take advantage of the upsurge. Data shows that XRP features a transaction volume of 1.16 billion tokens at this price level, making it the largest volume block below $1.

This area is important because most of the investors who bought at this level are less likely to sell off their assets, solidifying it as a potent support area. At the same time, buyers could again regard the area as another good entry point, leading to increased buying pressure and a potential rebound push.

Meanwhile, The Crypto Basic confirmed in an earlier report that most of the XRP investor base is witnessing severe losses, as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio hits lows last seen during the 2022 bear market. Should XRP collapse further to $0.62, this metric will likely slump to the lowest levels from 2022, potentially culminating in the cycle bottom.

Below $0.62, XRP faces another substantial volume block involving 1.06 billion transacted at $0.51. This likely reflects the buying pressure XRP witnessed at the early stages of the November 2024 rally.

The 90-day moving average for the XRP Profit/Loss Ratio has dropped to lows the market last saw during the 2022 bear cycle.

This comes as XRP witnesses deeper declines alongside the rest of the crypto market. Specifically, the price collapsed to a new yearly low of $1.0079, dangerously close to losing the $1 psychological mark. Despite recovering to $1.05 at press time, XRP is still down 8% in the past week.

XRP Realized P/L Ratio Hits 2022 Bear Market Lows

According to data provided by market intelligence resource Glassnode, this sustained price decline has now pushed the 90-day moving average (MA) for the XRP Profit/Loss Ratio to 0.33, a low the asset last recorded in August 2022, during one of its most devastating bear markets.

For context, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio compares the total value of coins sold at a gain with those sold at a loss over a specific period. A reading above 1 shows that profits outweigh losses, while a reading below 1 indicates that losses exceed profits.

The 0.33 reading indicates that, among investors who are actively selling, losses significantly outweigh profits. Specifically, for every $1 in losses that investors realize, only $0.38 in profits is being taken. Notably, this does not refer to total selling volume, but to the balance between profitable and unprofitable transactions.

Each new drop in the ratio shows that more investors are exiting their positions at a loss, and profit-takers no longer generate enough gains to balance out those losses.

Historical Data

Interestingly, despite the ongoing downtrend triggering severe declines as far back as October 2025, the XRP Profit/Loss Ratio did not slip below the 1 baseline until April 2026, as XRP struggled around the $1.3 to $1.4 price level.

By early June, the ratio had collapsed to 0.38, seeing a steep crash after April. XRP has since given up the $1.3 to $1.4 price range, retracing to retest the $1 psychological level. This downward price action pushed the Profit/Loss Ratio to the current reading of 0.33.

During the 2022 bear market, this metric did not slip below 1 until after the Terra ecosystem collapse in May, which led to losses across the crypto market. After reaching 0.33, the metric continued to decline, hitting a low below 0.2, as XRP’s price dropped to $0.31 by June 2022.

While multiple XRP community members believe the recent reading may point to a potential bottom, it is important to note that XRP remained under pressure for months even after the ratio dropped below 1 in 2022. Notably, it wasn’t until September 2022 that the metric recovered above 1, and a full-blown rally only emerged in November 2024.