The Crypto Basic

XRP is seeing growing activity in the derivatives market despite recent price weakness. 

The development suggests it could be setting up for a reversal once bearish sentiment reaches an extreme. The token is trading at $1.05, up 2.45% over the past 24 hours. 

However, XRP is still down 8% over the past week and has fallen 43% since the start of the year, reflecting broader weakness across the crypto market.

Open Interest Rises as Price Declines

XRP’s open interest has continued to rise even as its price trends lower. Over the past day, XRP open interest rose by 1.13%, reaching $2.37 billion. This figure suggests traders are opening new leveraged positions during the decline. Notably, open interest options dipped 67% to $21.66 million while options volume surged 16% to $5.4 million.

The accompanying chart shows XRP futures open interest steadily increasing over recent months. Meanwhile, the token has continued to post lower highs and lower lows.

Funding rates have also turned negative. This means short traders are paying long traders to keep their positions open, a sign that bearish sentiment is becoming more dominant in the perpetual futures market.

Negative Funding Could Support a Rebound

Rising open interest and negative funding are creating conditions that may support a potential reversal. The market appears to be “charging up for a reversal,” one analyst observed. However, buyers may need to regain momentum before bulls can take control. 

Negative funding rates can sometimes precede sharp rallies. If the price suddenly rebounds, heavily leveraged short positions may be forced to close, triggering a short squeeze that pushes prices even higher.

Possible Sweep to $0.95

Despite the longer-term bullish outlook, XRP could first revisit $0.95. Many market watchers, including Ali Martinez, have forecast a fall to this level and even lower.

The idea is that the market may target liquidity below current prices before reversing. Such liquidity sweeps happen when the price briefly moves into areas with large clusters of stop-loss orders. This can flush out excess leverage before a new trend begins.

If buyers step in after that move and overall sentiment improves, XRP could be positioned for a stronger recovery.

The Case for Deeper Bear Markets

Notably, XRP is down about 69% from its July 2025 peak of $3.66. While significant, this decline is milder than past bear markets, which saw drops of 85%–96%, such as in the 2013–2014 and 2018–2020 cycles.

If XRP matched its worst historical drop (96%), the price could fall near $0.15, about 87% below current levels. Ali Martinez recently floated this target as a possibility, which would place XRP at a level last seen in 2017.

Regardless of how low the coin may go, many believe buying XRP under $1 offers significant opportunity for the next bull run.

XRP has always struggled in June of any midterm year, and this historical performance provides hints into where this cycle could bottom.

The bearish trend that began in the fourth quarter of 2025 has already pushed XRP below the psychological levels of $3 and $2, and the asset is now at risk of falling below the $1 mark.

If XRP loses the $1 level, it could return to prices last seen before the November 2024 rally. As the downtrend continues, XRP’s performance during June in previous midterm years suggests that the asset could bottom between $0.79 and $0.91 this cycle.

Past XRP Midterm Years

Historical data shows that XRP has consistently struggled during June in every midterm year. In some cases, the lowest price recorded during the month either marked the cycle bottom or came very close to it.

For instance, in June 2014, the first midterm year after XRP began trading publicly in 2013, the price fell from $0.004515 to a low of $0.00379, representing an 8.67% decline. 

Although this drop did not mark the exact bottom, it came close. XRP later declined further to $0.00281 in July 2014 before finally finding support and beginning a recovery.

For June 2018, XRP dropped from an opening price of $0.61117 to a low of $0.42420, resulting in a 30.59% decline. However, unlike the 2014 cycle, the June low was still far from the bottom. XRP remained under pressure and eventually fell to $0.11400 in March 2020 before the downtrend finally ended.

Meanwhile, during June 2022, after the Terra collapse, XRP declined from an opening price of $0.42091 to a low of $0.2870, a drop of 31.68%. Notably, the $0.2870 level turned out to be the exact bottom of the 2022 bear market.

While XRP did not recover immediately afterward, it never revisited that low. Even the collapse of FTX in November 2022, which triggered heavy losses across the crypto market, failed to push XRP below $0.2870.

Historical Trends Suggest Possible Downside Ahead

Looking at the last three midterm years, XRP recorded an average decline of 23.6% during June. So far in June 2026, the asset has already fallen 24.27%, dropping from $1.33 at the start of the month to a low of $1.00795 before recovering slightly to around $1.03.

Since the current decline already matches the historical average, some investors may believe that XRP has already reached its bottom for this cycle. However, historical patterns suggest that this may not necessarily be the case.

In a more bearish scenario, based on the 31.68% decline seen in June 2022, XRP could still fall below $1 and drop toward the $0.91 level. However, technical data from the daily chart shows that this area does not align with a significant Fibonacci support zone.

As a result, a move down to $0.91 could expose XRP to additional selling pressure, potentially sending the price lower until it reaches the next major support area between $0.79 and $0.80. This zone aligns with the Fibonacci 1.272 extension and currently represents the next strong support level.

XRP Must Reclaim a Key Resistance Level

Despite the ongoing weakness, XRP could still recover from its current levels. However, the market remains uncertain, and the asset may continue setting new lows unless buyers regain control.

For sentiment to improve, XRP needs to break decisively above the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level at $1.56. A sustained move above this level would signal that bulls have regained control of the market.

Even then, reclaiming $1.56 would not completely remove the risk of further declines. Notably, if broader market conditions remain weak and selling pressure continues, XRP could still face another pullback.