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Key Levels to Start Buying XRP If It Drops Below $1

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Should XRP continue its pullback, here are the key levels to watch closely and probably start buying for maximum reward when its rebound starts.

XRP is trading around a crucial support level on higher timeframes. The coin seems to be finding a cushion around the $1.10 demand zone, as bulls battle to keep prices above key levels despite weakness.

Nonetheless, bears remain in control of the market. As such, there are still chances of further declines to lower prices. In such a scenario, chart analysis has highlighted levels to watch closely.

XRP Still Above Key Support

On the weekly chart, XRP is on course for its second consecutive red candle and the sixth in the past seven closings. The altcoin continues to slide from the May 2026 high of $1.55, as the corrective phase persists.

Still, XRP remains above a long-term ascending trendline that has repeatedly supported its price. Since March 2020, this dynamic support has continued to extend higher, with every retest preceding a strong rebound.

Notably, XRP found support at the line in July 2024 when it dipped to $0.38, temporarily keeping bears at bay. The last retest was in late October 2024, when the coin dipped to $0.48. After consolidating atop the support for several days, XRP started one of the most remarkable rallies in its history, growing 370% from $0.49 in November 2024 t0 $2.35 by December 2024.

While prices remain well below prior highs, XRP has managed to stay above this long-term support line, currently near $0.88. Market observers are closely monitoring this level if XRP continues to drop. Given how the line has guided the asset’s price for over 6 years now, expectations are that there could be a reaction there.

Key XRP Buying Zone

Further analysis of the weekly timeframe shows that XRP has been trading within a horizontal channel for nine years now. XRP entered this channel in May 2017 and has since consolidated within the structure.

The major points in this range are the upper resistance boundary at $3.25 and the lower boundary at $0.15. In between are the midpoint and two other trendlines, which can serve as both support and resistance depending on the market trend.

XRP Horizontal Channel
XRP Horizontal Channel

In May, XRP lost the support at $1.50, a key level between the upper boundary and midpoint. If the bearish trend persists and XRP breaks below the long-term ascending support, the next area to closely watch is the channel’s midpoint at $0.70. From the current market price, this represents a 35% drop.

Further price weakness could take XRP lower to $0.32, another key level between the midpoint trendline and the lower support band. Analysts view this as a good area to buy some XRP or DCA into already existing positions.

Meanwhile, in an extremely bearish scenario, XRP could retest the channel’s lower support band at $0.15. This would see the asset reach price levels not seen since March 2020. Notably, the dip will present a rare opportunity to accumulate XRP as it offers a great risk-to-reward ratio. XRP would have to drop 86% to reach this level.

XRP Cycle Bottom Now Depends on Whether It Follows an Expanded, Running, or Regular Flat

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The XRP price bottom for the ongoing downtrend now depends on whether the crypto asset is following an expanded, running, or regular flat.

XRP has remained under selling pressure since reaching its all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025. Since then, the asset has lost around 70% of its value and is currently trading near $1.08. 

As the decline enters its eleventh month, Elliott Wave analysis suggests that XRP may still be moving through a flat correction. Notably, the specific type of flat pattern could determine how much further the asset may fall before finding a bottom.

XRP Correction Following Flat Pattern

Under Elliott Wave theory, flat corrections develop in Waves A, B, and C. XRP’s price history over the past several years seems to follow this structure.

Specifically, Wave A began after XRP peaked at $3.31 in January 2018. During the prolonged bear market that followed, the price crashed and eventually reached a low of about $0.11 in March 2020, marking a decline of roughly 97%.

Wave B then reversed the pullback. The recovery erased the earlier losses and also pushed XRP to a new all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025. Considering this, data suggests XRP could now be following one of three flat structures: a regular flat, an expanded flat, or a running flat.

XRP Flat Structure
XRP Flat Structure

Wave C started after the July 2025 peak and has continued to weigh on price action. So far, XRP has recorded losses in eight of the last ten completed months. June 2026 is also on track to end in negative territory, with the token already down about 18% for the month.

Regular Flat May Be the Least Likely Pattern

In a regular flat, Wave B usually returns close to the starting point of Wave A but does not move significantly above it. Wave C then typically ends near the low established during Wave A.

XRP’s price action does not fit this. Notably, Wave B climbed beyond the $3.31 starting point of Wave A and reached a new all-time high at $3.66. Such a strong move goes against the typical features of a regular flat.

If XRP were still following a regular flat, the correction would likely end near the previous low around $0.11. However, because Wave B moved so far above the earlier high, this scenario is the least convincing of the three.

XRP Price Action Aligning with Expanded Flat

Currently, the expanded flat appears to match XRP’s structure better than the other alternatives.

For context, this type of flat requires Wave B to rise above the origin of Wave A, which XRP already achieved by reaching $3.66. It also expects Wave C to move below the low of Wave A and establish a new downside extreme.

However, applying the standard 1.618 Fibonacci extension correction for an expanded flat would push XRP’s price almost below zero. This is analytically improbable for an asset with such established market depth.

As a result, a less aggressive Fibonacci 1.0 projection works better in this case, and presents $0.46 as a possible target if XRP continues to follow the expanded flat pattern.

Running Flat Still Cannot Be Ruled Out

Meanwhile, the running flat remains another possibility. Like the expanded flat, a running flat allows Wave B to move above the starting point of Wave A. The major difference is that Wave C does not fall below the Wave A low. Instead, it bottoms above that level before the broader uptrend resumes.

If XRP is following a running flat, the correction could end somewhere between $0.50 and $0.80. Interestingly, the $0.80 level aligns with projections from analysts like Casi and Chart Nerd for XRP’s bottom.

However, current market conditions make the running flat less convincing. XRP has suffered nearly continuous monthly losses for almost a year, and the scale of the decline suggests strong bearish momentum. 

Running flats usually show more underlying strength than what XRP has displayed so far. Despite this, the running flat remains valid as long as XRP stays above $0.11. A confirmed break below that level would remove this scenario entirely.

Overall, an impulsive rally that pushes XRP above its $3.66 all-time high and continues higher would invalidate the entire flat structure. Such a move would suggest that the current decline is part of a different and larger market pattern.

UK Climate Finance Proposal Names XRPL as Infrastructure for Renewable Investment Pilot

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A new UK climate finance proposal references the XRP Ledger as a suitable blockchain layer for a proposed investment framework aimed at accelerating renewable energy funding.

Dr. Chris Cormack authored the proposal and submitted it to the UK Parliament’s Environmental Audit Committee. The submission forms part of the broader review of HM Treasury’s climate finance strategy.

The document introduces a new financial instrument called the Climate Contingent Convertible Note (CloCo), which aims to mobilize private capital and channel it into clean energy and renewable infrastructure projects.

XRPL Proposed for Pilot Infrastructure Role

While the proposal broadly discusses distributed ledger technology, it specifically highlights the XRP Ledger (XRPL) as a preferred network for a potential pilot program involving institutional investors and regulated financial institutions.

Under the proposal, XRPL would not drive the financial innovation itself. Instead, it would serve as an operational layer for data integrity and transparency.

Specifically, XRPL would function as a transparent and time-stamped record-keeping system throughout the CloCo lifecycle. The blockchain would maintain issuance records and investor entitlements. It would also store trigger evidence and process settlement instructions. Furthermore, XRPL would document how issuers deploy proceeds into renewable energy projects.

During issuance, XRPL would function as a tokenized register of ownership. As the instrument evolves, it will also record trigger events and preserve an auditable history of transactions and investor rights. 

XRPL Role in UK Climate Finance Proposal
XRPL Role in UK Climate Finance Proposal

Traditional Institutions Would Retain Control

Meanwhile, the proposal does not position XRPL as a replacement for traditional financial systems. Instead, banks, regulators, custodians, and compliance bodies would continue to manage core responsibilities.

These institutions would still handle KYC and AML checks, legal agreements, custody services, and regulatory oversight. Meanwhile, XRPL would act as a supporting infrastructure layer that improves transparency and efficiency.

The submission further clarifies that XRPL should be treated as a regulated financial-market infrastructure rather than a substitute for securities law or prudential frameworks.

Proposal Remains Non-Binding

The document represents an independent submission and does not constitute official UK government policy. Moreover, HM Treasury has not committed to adopting the proposed framework.

Nonetheless, the explicit inclusion of XRPL in a sovereign climate finance concept highlights growing institutional interest in blockchain-based financial infrastructure.

Institutional References to XRP Ecosystem Accelerate

This development aligns with a wider trend of institutional recognition for the XRP ecosystem.

Recently, the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR) referenced XRP in discussions around token embedding within the digital economy. In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) previously cited XRP as an example of a private-sector settlement asset in a 2018 presentation.

Similarly, the United Nations acknowledged the XRP Ledger for its faster settlement speeds, lower costs, and energy efficiency. 

What New Users Should Know Before Moving Digital Assets Between Platforms

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Transferring digital assets from one platform to another may seem like a simple task. The user opens up a wallet, copies an address, selects an amount and confirms the transaction. However, there can be a couple of things that could be misunderstood in this straightforward sequence. These factors will all impact the outcome: the chosen network, address format, fee, transfer limits, processing time, and platform rules.

When creating a new user, the name of the asset and the destination address are usually the first two things they consider. That’s good and it’s not sufficient. Transfers of digital assets need to be taken care of more as platform settings can vary. A sending platform can have one route supported by a receiving platform can have another. While an asset may be clearly displayed on a wallet, it could need a specific network for funds to reach that wallet. 

The safest habit is to treat every platform move as a small verification process. This does not make the experience complicated. It makes it more predictable. When users know what to check before sending funds, they can avoid common mistakes and build more confidence with each transfer.

Why Platform Moves Require More Than a Wallet Address

For users comparing how swap routes work, the Godex exchange platform can be viewed through practical factors such as rate clarity, supported assets, account requirements, and the steps shown before funds are sent. These details matter because a platform transfer is never only about copying an address.

A wallet address is one part of the route. The selected network is another. The platform’s transfer rules add another layer. If one detail is wrong, the user may face a delay, support request, or loss of access to funds. This is why careful checking matters before any transaction begins.

New users also need to recognize that platforms may display similar assets in different ways. One platform may group assets by network. Another may ask the user to choose the network separately. A third may show warnings before confirmation. These differences can feel minor, but they guide the whole transfer process.

The better approach is to slow down before the send button. A clear platform flow should show the asset, route, estimated fee, and expected arrival details before funds move. A user who reviews these elements is less likely to rely on guesswork.

Network choice can change the transfer result

Network selection is one of the most common points of confusion for new users. A digital asset may exist across more than one network, and the chosen route must match what the receiving platform supports. The asset name alone does not confirm that the transfer path is correct.

Before moving funds, users should check:

  • The selected asset and ticker.
  • The network chosen for the transfer.
  • The full receiving address.
  • Any required memo, tag, or payment note.
  • The visible fee before confirmation.
  • The minimum transfer amount.
  • The expected processing time.

This checklist helps users focus on what can actually affect the transfer. It also reduces the chance of relying on memory from a previous transaction. A route that worked on one platform may not be the right route on another.

Fees and timing also depend on network conditions and platform processing rules. A transfer may be confirmed quickly, or it may take longer during busy periods. New users should treat estimated arrival time as useful guidance, not a fixed promise. When the process is explained clearly, waiting becomes less stressful.

Exchange guides help turn confusion into better decisions

Many transfer mistakes happen because users act before they understand the exchange flow. A guide can explain what a rate means, why a network must match, how a swap differs from a direct transfer, and what happens after funds are sent.

The Godex blog fits this learning path because practical guides can help users understand swap conditions, rate types, and transaction steps before moving assets between platforms. The kind of content that is helpful is when it helps to explain why something happened, rather than trying to get users to act quicker.

The content material of the education should be calm, clear and factual. It should not make promises about profit, celebrity connections or potential future market movement. New users must be given explanations they can use right away. They must understand what is being asked of them by the transfer screen, why some fields are appearing on the transfer screen, and what they need to do to verify the route before sending assets. 

Good guides also remind users that a successful transfer depends on both sides of the transaction. The sending platform must process the request correctly. The receiving platform must support the same asset and network. The user must enter the right destination details. These three parts work together.

User control comes with user responsibility

Digital assets give users more direct control than many traditional payment systems. That control can be valuable, but it also places more responsibility on the person sending funds. A platform may display warnings and instructions, yet the user still needs to review the final details.

Control does not mean doing everything alone. It means knowing which decisions belong to the user and which parts are handled by the platform. For example, the user controls the destination address, amount, and selected route. The platform may handle the exchange process, rate display, and transaction tracking.

Before choosing a platform flow, users can ask:

  • Can all transfer details be reviewed before funds are sent?
  • Are fees and rate conditions shown clearly?
  • Does the platform explain what happens after confirmation?
  • Is support information easy to find?
  • Are account requirements visible before the process starts?
  • Does the receiving platform support the selected route?

These questions are practical. They help users compare platforms without making emotional or rushed decisions. They also support better habits as users move from small transfers to more frequent asset management.

Safer transfers start before the send button

A platform transfer should not be based on mere routine. Even the most experienced users can get things wrong when they neglect some basic checks. If each transfer starts with a brief reminder of route, address, fee and platform rules, it will be much more likely for the new user to develop safe habits.

The essential lesson is easy to understand. In the case of digital assets, it is a specific condition rather than a general one that they traverse. The user might want to transfer money to the correct destination, but there are still technicalities to consider. All the right network, address, memo, and visible fees are important until confirmation.

The more assets that move in and out of wallets, exchanges, and other platforms, the more valuable it becomes to have clear instructions. It’s nice to have a simple interface, but desired to present sufficient information for user to carefully consider. The best transfer experience is not a cloaked one. It’s the one that ensures that the right information is readily available.

The first step to a smarter platform move is to begin before assets are moved out of the wallet. It starts with careful reading of the screen, verification of the route and an understanding of the significance of each item. That way, it’s a first transfer that’s not a wild guess, but a better-informed decision. 

RLUSD Supply on XRP Ledger Overtakes Ethereum as Circulating Supply Hits $1.6B

Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, hit a major milestone as the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has now surpassed Ethereum as the largest network hosting RLUSD supply.

Data from RLUSD Tracker shows that the supply on XRPL has climbed to about $801.8 million at press time. Meanwhile, Ethereum currently holds roughly $793.1 million. 

The shift marks a significant change from RLUSD’s launch in December 2024, when most of the stablecoin’s supply was on Ethereum.

XRP Ledger Becomes the Largest RLUSD Network

On Wednesday, community observers noted that XRPL was rapidly closing the gap with Ethereum. At the time, both networks held nearly identical RLUSD supplies of around $792 million and $793 million.

Now, updated figures show XRPL has taken the lead. According to RLUSD Tracker, a community-operated platform run by XRPL validator Vet, XRPL hosts $801,796,335 worth of RLUSD. Ethereum’s supply stands at $793,123,469.

The change has been driven by stronger issuance activity on XRPL. Over the past 24 hours, approximately 9.27 million RLUSD was minted on the network. Ethereum, meanwhile, saw lower minting activity and continued redemptions.

RLUSD Supply on XRPL
RLUSD Supply on XRPL

Ethereum Sees Heavy Redemptions

Network activity on June 24 showed Ethereum recorded roughly 29.08 million RLUSD burned, reducing its circulating supply. In contrast, XRPL saw more than 8.05 million RLUSD minted and only about 430,000 RLUSD burned.

The figures suggest demand for RLUSD on XRPL has remained steady. Ethereum, however, has experienced larger redemption flows, which have reduced its share of the total supply.

RLUSD on Ethereum
RLUSD on Ethereum

Notably, across both networks, RLUSD’s circulating supply now stands at approximately $1.596 billion.

Collectively, issuance and redemption activity have been significant over the past month. Around $442.6 million RLUSD has been minted during the last 30 days, while roughly $590.1 million has been burned.

Community Debates the Shift

The changing balance between Ethereum and XRPL sparked discussion across the XRP community.

Crypto commentator Zach Rector described the development as a positive sign for XRPL. “Liquidity coming to XRP Ledger,” he said.

Meanwhile, community member Kevin Walsh urged caution around liquidity-growth narratives. He argued that retail traders ultimately provide the liquidity that larger market participants use.

Japan Launch Supports Growth

The supply shift comes shortly after Ripple announced RLUSD’s official launch in Japan. The rollout followed approval from the country’s financial regulator.

Through Ripple’s partnership with SBI Group and SBI VC Trade, RLUSD will be available to both institutional and retail users on the VCTRADE platform.

Ripple described the launch as an important step for regulated stablecoin adoption across Asia. The company pointed to RLUSD’s roughly $1.6 billion market capitalization and its long-standing relationship with SBI. In sum, as RLUSD expands into new markets, liquidity could continue to flow into XRPL.

Hoskinson Says “Cardano Was Not Hacked”

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Charles Hoskinson reassures the ADA community following the security incident involving SecondFi, emphasizing that the breach did not compromise the Cardano blockchain itself.

His comments came as concerns spread throughout the Cardano ecosystem after reports revealed that attackers exploited vulnerabilities connected to SecondFi wallets, resulting in significant losses for affected users.

Hoskinson: Cardano Core Infrastructure Remains Secure

According to Hoskinson, there is no evidence that the incident affected any component of Cardano’s underlying technology stack. He stressed that the network’s protocol, cryptographic foundations, node infrastructure, and open-source wallet implementations continue to function as intended. 

Consequently, he classified the incident as an application-level security failure rather than a failure of the blockchain itself. His commentary sought to calm fears that the breach could threaten ordinary ADA holders who do not use SecondFi. 

“Cardano Was Not Hacked”

Further, he rejected claims that the blockchain itself was compromised, stressing that “Cardano was not hacked.” According to him, describing the incident as a “Cardano hack” creates the false impression that the blockchain’s core infrastructure failed.

Interestingly, he compared the situation to a vulnerable third-party application running on an operating system. Using an analogy involving Microsoft and its Windows platform, Hoskinson argued that users do not blame Windows whenever an external application contains bugs or security flaws.

Similarly, he maintained that vulnerabilities in an individual wallet or financial application should not be interpreted as weaknesses in Cardano’s protocol. He also reiterated that users’ funds across the broader Cardano ecosystem remain secure.

SecondFi Confirms Attack Originated at Address and Signing Layer

Hoskinson’s reassurance followed reports of a large-scale exploit suffered by SecondFi (formerly Yoroi Wallet), a neo-finance application owned by EMURGO, one of Cardano’s founding entities.

Following the incident, SecondFi disclosed that the breach occurred at the address and transaction-signing level, allowing malicious actors to initiate unauthorized transactions.

According to the company, four separate wallet-draining incidents occurred earlier this week. Three of those attacks were linked to external threat actors and resulted in the theft of approximately 16 million ADA from 374 wallets.

Meanwhile, the company revealed that it secured an additional 129 million ADA by transferring the assets to a third-party custodian as an emergency precaution.

SecondFi Deploys Patch and Begins Recovery Process

In response to the incident, SecondFi announced that it has already deployed a security patch and engaged an external auditor to verify customer holdings. The company also confirmed that it is developing a claims process for affected users to facilitate compensation and recovery efforts.

Notably, SecondFi warned users not to restore their recovery phrases into other wallets. It added that doing so could disrupt or complicate the claims process for affected funds.

XRP Down 2% Since Ripple’s MiCA Approval, Leading to Claims of Inverse Price Impact

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Despite confirmation that Ripple secured preliminary approval under Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, XRP has continued to face selling pressure.

The crypto asset has declined 2.39% over the past week, and this has led to some market participants arguing that positive developments surrounding Ripple no longer translate into upward momentum for XRP.

Ripple Secures Preliminary MiCA Approval

For context, Ripple received a preliminary approval, known as a Green Light Letter, for a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) license under the European Union’s MiCA framework from Luxembourg’s Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) on June 23, 2026. 

The approval arrived only days before MiCA’s crucial July 1, 2026, transitional deadline, after which crypto firms that operate without the required authorization could face compliance issues when offering certain services across the European Union.

The preliminary CASP license gives Ripple the ability to provide multiple crypto-related services, including crypto exchange, transfers, custody, and other associated activities for clients. 

The authorization also complements Ripple’s existing Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license, which the company also obtained in Luxembourg. 

However, the current approval remains preliminary and still depends on the fulfillment of final regulatory conditions. Once regulators grant full approval, Ripple would achieve complete MiCA compliance by combining both its CASP and EMI licenses. 

Ripple previously followed a similar two-stage process for its EMI authorization, obtaining a Green Light in January 2026 before later receiving full approval.

XRP Fails to Respond Positively to Bullish News

Although the announcement represented a major regulatory breakthrough for Ripple, XRP failed to benefit from the news. However, the token moved lower alongside the broader crypto market.

Within one hour of Ripple’s announcement, XRP dropped 1.13% to $1.09. The asset then traded sideways around the $1.09 level before staging a modest rebound to $1.11 by midday on June 23. This recovery was short-lived. Since reaching the $1.11 region, XRP has retreated again and now changes hands at $1.08.

Overall, XRP has declined 2.7% since Ripple announced the preliminary MiCA approval. The market reaction has led to speculation among some investors that major bullish developments surrounding Ripple may now produce little immediate benefit for XRP’s price performance and could even coincide with short-term weakness.

XRP Down This Year Despite Ripple’s Business and Regulatory Wins

The MiCA approval represents only one of several positive developments Ripple has recorded this year. Ripple also broadened the reach of its RLUSD stablecoin in June 2026 by partnering with BiLira, Bitexen, and Bitlo, making RLUSD available to institutional users in Türkiye. 

The stablecoin further expanded its presence through listings on major exchanges, including Gate.io. In addition, LMAX Group integrated RLUSD as collateral within its institutional trading infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Ripple continued its expansion strategy. The company invested in Flutterwave during its Series E funding round, which valued the African payments company at $3.2billion.

Despite Ripple’s expanding regulatory approvals, strategic partnerships, stablecoin growth, and institutional initiatives, XRP has not reflected the optimism surrounding these developments.

Instead, the asset has largely tracked the wider market’s bearish trajectory. XRP has fallen 40.3% since the beginning of the year and currently remains on course to record its weakest annual performance since the 2022 bear market.

Chart Shows Top XRP DCA Zone at $0.42 to $0.72

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Chart structure suggests XRP remains well above top DCA areas, and the price might drop further, offering better entry points.

The XRP price continues to trade under pressure, as the broader market maintains its corrective phase. Currently, XRP’s price action sits beneath a cluster of declining moving averages that have capped every recovery attempt since the asset peaked at $3.66 in July 2025.

The broader trend remains firmly bearish, with momentum still favoring sellers as XRP hovers near the $1.10 support. Meanwhile, chart analysis shows the price might see further downside.

XRP Long-Term Support Zone Still Below Market Price

On the daily chart, the long-term area attracting the most attention is a broad accumulation range between roughly $0.42 and $0.72. This zone has repeatedly acted as a key price area during previous market cycles.

XRP DCA Zone
XRP DCA Zone

For context, XRP consolidated around this area for most of 2023 and 2024 before breaking out. The token entered this price zone in March 2023 and accumulated for 20 months, breaking out in November 2024 to higher prices. So far, XRP has spent 19 months above this support, during which it reached a new all-time high before the current correction.

This long-term range could act as an opportunity zone for XRP should the current pullback persist. At this region, the asset’s risk-reward ratio becomes significantly more attractive, making it a good point to dollar-cost average (DCA) for existing holders or gain exposure for new holders. Currently at $1.08, the coin would have to fall by 33% to 61% to reach the $0.72 to $0.42 zone.

Price Trend Remains Weak Despite Extended Pullback

Further fueling the expectation that XRP could fall further is the current structure setup. The asset is trading below multiple exponential moving averages. It trades below both short-term and long-term trend indicators like the 200 EMA, 100 EMA, 50 EMA, and 5 EMA on the daily timeframe, signaling price weakness.

These EMAs also continue to slope lower, reinforcing price weakness. Unless the trend changes, XRP could continue to visit lower prices. The relative strength index (RSI) also shows a lack of upward momentum in the market as it begins to enter oversold territory.

Nonetheless, previous rallies came after sharp corrections that eventually revisited major support areas. If history repeats, XRP could continue drifting lower to zones where long-term accumulation becomes more compelling before the next leg up.

On-chain data shows that traders are still expressing skepticism, preferring to observe XRP from the sidelines. Trading volume has dropped 11% in the past 24 hours, with futures flows also experiencing a net outflow of $32.3 million. Open interest has also dropped by 1.15% to $2.54 billion in the past day.

XRP Futures Flow/Coinglass
XRP Futures Flow/Coinglass

It Could Take 720,913 years to Reduce XRP Supply to 500M Tokens at the Current Burn Rate

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It could take centuries to reduce the XRP supply to 500 million tokens at the current burn rate.

The XRP Ledger has a built-in burn mechanism, but its main purpose is not to make the asset deflationary. Instead, the system mainly aims to prevent spam transactions on the network.

Despite this, market participants continue to assess whether the mechanism could eventually help reduce supply and support XRP’s price over time.

How Long to Reduce the XRP Supply to 500M

Currently, XRP has a total supply of 99.98 billion tokens. Of this amount, 32.74 billion XRP remains locked in escrow, while 67.22 billion tokens are already in circulation. Data from June 23 shows that the XRP Ledger has a current burn rate of 373 XRP per day.

XRP Burn Rate XRPScan
XRP Burn Rate | XRPScan

At this pace, the network destroys around 2,611 XRP every week and roughly 11,560 XRP during a 31-day month. Over an entire year, the burn mechanism removes approximately 138,000 XRP from the supply.

Some members of the XRP community have discussed the possibility of reducing XRP’s supply to just 500 million tokens. However, calculations based on the current burn rate show that such a goal is unfeasible in this lifetime.

To bring the circulating supply down from 67.22 billion XRP to 500 million tokens, the network would need to remove about 66.72 billion XRP. With only around 138,000 XRP burned each year, it would take approximately 483,478 years to achieve this target.

Meanwhile, reducing the current total supply of 99.98 billion XRP to 500 million tokens would require the destruction of about 99.48 billion XRP. At the present annual burn rate of 138,000 XRP, this process would take roughly 720,913 years.

This shows that lowering XRP’s supply to 500 million tokens is not realistic within any practical timeframe during this lifetime unless the network’s burn rate rises significantly.

Possible Impact on Price

Although the current burn rate makes such a large reduction in supply unlikely, analysts have continued to examine how a much lower supply could affect XRP’s valuation.

If XRP maintained its current market capitalization of $68 billion while the supply dropped to only 500 million tokens, each XRP would be worth about $136, representing a 12,263% rise from the current price of $1.10.

Notably, XRP previously reached a peak market value of $215 billion in July 2025. If the asset returned to that market cap while having a supply of just 500 million tokens, the price of one XRP would rise to around $430, a 38,990% increase from current prices.

Why the XRP Ledger Burns Tokens

The XRP Ledger included the burn mechanism when it launched in 2012. With every transaction, the network permanently destroys a small amount of XRP instead of paying those fees to validators or any other participants.

The main reason for this system is to protect the network from spam. Under normal conditions, the base transaction fee stands at 10 drops, or 0.00001 XRP per transaction. The network automatically raises fees during periods of congestion to help control demand and maintain stable performance.

Although the burn mechanism gradually reduces XRP’s supply, this effect remains small. XRP launched with a fixed supply of 100 billion tokens, and the network does not issue new coins. 

Despite this, Ripple executives and official documentation continue to stress that the burn mechanism exists mainly to stop spam, not to create scarcity. At press time, the network has burned 14.3 million XRP over the past 14 years.

XRP Down 69%, But History Shows Deeper Bear Markets Are Possible

XRP has fallen about 69% from its July 2025 peak of $3.66, according to data comparing the asset’s major historical drawdowns.

While the decline is significant, it remains much smaller than the devastating corrections seen in previous XRP bear markets. This has sparked new conversations among observers.

Some believe XRP’s price is benefiting from a more mature market structure, while others think another capitulation phase could still lie ahead.

How XRP Past Bear Markets Compare

Historical data shows XRP has endured steep losses in every major market cycle:

  • 2013–2014: 95% decline over roughly 7 months
  • 2018–2020: 96% decline across about 26 months
  • 2021–2022: 85% decline in around 14 months
  • 2025–2026: 69% decline so far after approximately 11 months

The trend suggests XRP’s drawdowns have generally become less severe over time. The current correction is substantially smaller than the 95%–96% collapses recorded in earlier cycles.

What a 96% Drawdown Would Look Like

XRP reached a cycle high of $3.66 in July 2025 and currently trades near $1.10, representing a decline of roughly 69.9%. If XRP were to match its worst historical drawdown of 96%, the price would fall to about $0.15.

That would require XRP to drop another 86.7% from its current level. For comparison:

  • 85% drawdown: about $0.55
  • 95% drawdown: about $0.18
  • 96% drawdown: about $0.15

A move to those levels would return XRP to price zones last seen during the lawsuit era. For instance, XRP hit $0.17 in December 2020, shortly after the SEC lawsuit was announced.

Stronger Market?

Some commentators believe XRP’s progressively smaller drawdowns reflect a maturing market. Notable supporting factors include:

  • Greater institutional participation via ETFs
  • Deeper liquidity across exchanges
  • Expanded adoption of XRP and the XRP Ledger ecosystem
  • A more favorable regulatory climate

According to supporters, XRP may no longer experience the extreme 95%–96% collapses that defined earlier cycles.

“Bottom Not In”

But not everyone is convinced the bottom is in. The current correction is only about 11 months old, and some traders believe another leg lower remains possible before a long-term bottom is established.

The 2018–2020 cycle, for example, lasted more than two years before bottoming out. Specifically, XRP fell from $3.84 in January 2018 to $0.1151 in March 2020, enduring a prolonged bear market.

Meanwhile, in the current cycle, analysts have mostly floated low-price targets between $0.50 and $0.90 as potential XRP lows. They consider this range a possible entry zone for long-term investment.

For now, while XRP’s 69% decline is its mildest major bear-market correction in more than a decade, the risk of lower prices remains, especially as many believe Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out.