Bitcoin Could Surge to $78,000 if This Key Resistance Breaks

Bitcoin nears key resistance at $65,795, with analyst Ali Martinez suggesting that a breach could lead to $78,700, as whales accumulate, and long-term holders sell.

According to Ali Martinez, Bitcoin is on the brink of a positive price movement, with crucial resistance levels in sight. The analyst has pinpointed $65,795 as a critical resistance level, indicating a potential surge to $78,700 if broken. This analysis is based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands from Glassnode, which highlight important support and resistance areas.

One of the most crucial resistance areas for #Bitcoin is $65,795. If $BTC can break past this level, the next significant target is $78,700! pic.twitter.com/tcxTJlKUo3

— Ali (@ali_charts) July 2, 2024

The $65,795 resistance level is marked by the +0.5 standard deviation line on the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. Historically, this level has posed challenges for Bitcoin. For instance, in April 2024, Bitcoin got close to the +1 standard deviation but couldn’t maintain that level, leading to a correction. 

Historical Performance in July While Whales Accumulate

Bitcoin’s historical performance also supports a bullish outlook. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that Bitcoin tends to recover strongly in July after a negative June. On average, Bitcoin has shown a return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% in July. This pattern adds to the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s potential to break out.

Historically, when #Bitcoin has had a negative June, it tends to bounce back strongly in July. In fact, $BTC has shown an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% during this month. pic.twitter.com/fJaIwc7Eob

— Ali (@ali_charts) June 30, 2024

Another positive signal comes from large investors’ accumulation of Bitcoin. According to a recent alert from CryptoQuant, published on X by CEO Ki Young Ju, whales are increasing their Bitcoin holdings.

As of June 30, 2024, the balance of large Bitcoin investors stood at 3,632,342 BTC, with a 30-day percentage balance change of 5.629%. This accumulation trend is often associated with higher Bitcoin prices, indicating confidence among large investors.

Long-Term Holder Activity

However, the activity of long-term Bitcoin holders presents a contrasting picture. Data from IntoTheBlock revealed that long-term holders sold 200,000 BTC in May and June 2024, amounting to $10 billion in May and $1.2 billion in June. This selling trend has contributed to fluctuations in Bitcoin’s market price.

Despite these sell-offs, CryptoQuant identifies $56,000 as a significant support level for Bitcoin. Any major bearish volatility is expected to find support at this price point. Failure to maintain this level could lead to further corrections, potentially to $54,000, as suggested by Willy Woo, a prominent analyst. Woo attributes recent price retests to excessively leveraged positions and miner sell-offs, indicating a need for market stabilization before a sustainable uptrend can resume.