Wall Street financial giant Citi has updated its Bitcoin price forecasts, presenting bear, base, and bull case scenarios for 2025.
Specifically, the bank’s base case projects Bitcoin price hitting $135,000 in 2025, with its bullish scenario envisioning a rise to $199,000. Meanwhile, a bearish outlook places it at $64,000 in the event of weaker macroeconomic conditions.
ETF Flows Take Center Stage in Bitcoin Uptrend
Notably, Citi highlights the growing influence of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Bitcoin’s price. The bank estimates that ETF demand now accounts for over 40% of recent BTC price variation.
Since their launch, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have purchased over $54.66 billion worth of Bitcoin. Leading the charge have been BlackRock and Fidelity.
The impact of this capital is evident in the fact that BTC traded around $45,000 during the launch month but has since nearly tripled, reaching $123,000 earlier this month.
Citi analysts model an additional $15 billion in ETF inflows this year, which could add approximately $63,000 to BTC’s valuation.
Globally, ETFs now hold over 1.48 million BTC tokens, worth more than $170 billion. This represents around 7% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
User Adoption and Network Effects Remain Key Drivers
Beyond institutional demand, Citi’s forecast incorporates a model based on user adoption and network effects. The analysts expect a 20% growth in Bitcoin users, which alone supports a price near $75,000.
While adoption remains the foundation of the pricing model, Citi notes that the combination of institutional flows and user activity is creating a more resilient network effect than previously anticipated.
Macroeconomic Factors Weigh Slightly on Outlook
The bank’s model also considers macroeconomic conditions, which reduce the price forecast by approximately $3,200. This adjustment reflects weaker performance in equities and gold markets.
At the same time, Citi emphasizes that increasing regulatory acceptance and the integration of crypto into traditional finance continue to strengthen the overall outlook.
Bitcoin Year-End Price Projection
Considering the $63,000 value added by ETF demand, $75,000 from user growth, and a $3,200 reduction due to macroeconomic headwinds, Citi arrives at a base-case price of approximately $135,000 for Bitcoin by year-end.
Notably, this represents only a $12,000 increase from Bitcoin’s recent peak of $123,000. Other market analysts have more optimistic targets, with some predicting prices between $250,000 and $500,000 by year-end.
Ultimately, Citi believes Bitcoin could exceed expectations. It noted that ETF demand is growing rapidly and users are remaining active for longer periods. As a result, Bitcoin’s price now relies more heavily on institutional investment than on technology or retail adoption alone.
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