Analysts Warn of Share Dilution Risks as Strategy Prints More Stock to Buy Bitcoin

Crypto market analysts are now raising concerns over Strategy’s latest move to issue new shares in order to buy more Bitcoin. 

For context, the company announced in an Aug. 25 SEC filing that it had raised hundreds of millions of dollars for fresh Bitcoin purchases shortly after releasing a new guidance a week earlier that essentially went back on its promise not to issue more shares below 2.5x mNAV.

Strategy Essentially Diluting Shares to Buy Bitcoin

Today, CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn pointed out how quickly things had changed. Before the new policy rolled out on Aug. 18, Strategy barely raised any fresh capital. Specifically, it issued nothing on Aug. 3, about $18 million on Aug. 10, and roughly $51 million on Aug. 17. 

Strategy running out of steam? 🚂💨

Before Aug 18, almost no new money came into $MSTR:
🔹 Aug 3: $0
🔹 Aug 10: ~$18M
🔹 Aug 17: ~$51M

But after they dropped the “no dilution below 2.5x mNAV” promise, $359M was raised by issuing new shares (see tweet below).

Policy changed.… https://t.co/nenuT1soI3 pic.twitter.com/pORoidxPhf

— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) August 26, 2025

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However, once the company dropped its “no dilution below 2.5x mNAV” rule, it suddenly raised $359 million in just a week. Notably, the numbers show a company running out of momentum and leaning on dilution to keep buying Bitcoin.

Two days earlier, right after the recent BTC purchase, Satoshi Radio Podcast host Bart Mol shared Strategy’s filing and made fun of the company by comparing its share sales to a money printer running nonstop. His comment showed growing skepticism among investors who see the approach as risky.

Strategy’s Latest Bitcoin Purchase

According to the filing, Strategy sold $309.9 million worth of MSTR stock at an average price of $354.05, along with $47.1 million from preferred shares across several classes. 

In total, the company brought in more than $357 million and used the money to buy 3,081 Bitcoin. This lifted its total holdings to 632,457 BTC, around 3% of all coins in circulation, and moved it closer to its long-term goal of holding 1 million coins, now about 63% complete.

The buy strengthens Strategy’s position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, but the way it financed the purchase has raised concerns. 

On Aug. 18, Chairman Michael Saylor introduced new guidance based on the market net asset value, or mNAV. This ratio compares the company’s stock price to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. 

The New Guidance

The guidance explained that if the stock traded at more than four times its mNAV, Strategy would issue shares aggressively to buy Bitcoin. At 2.5 to 4x, it would issue shares selectively. 

Meanwhile, if the stock fell below 2.5x, new issuance would shift toward covering debt, dividends, and other needs. However, should shares drop below 1x, Strategy could borrow to buy back its own stock.

This new guidance was in direct contrast to the previous one, with which the firm promised not to issue new shares for Bitcoin purchase if the mNAV is below 2.5x. Now, a week later, with MSTR stock at $348.92, about 1.6x its mNAV, Strategy has issued new shares shortly after the new guidance. 

For context, the main concern is dilution. Specifically, every time Strategy sells more stock, it creates more claims on the same amount of Bitcoin. Each share ends up backed by less Bitcoin than before, which weakens the value for existing shareholders unless they buy more stock.

Notably, this approach allows Strategy to keep building its Bitcoin reserves and use its debt capacity, which currently sits at 21% of Bitcoin NAV with headroom up to 30%. However, issuing stock at such low multiples reduces shareholder value and risks turning Strategy into a diluted Bitcoin trust. Critics like Peter Schiff had issued prior warnings.