XRP analyst Chad Steingraber has offered a new perspective on the ongoing XRP ETF supply discussion.
He suggests that the question is no longer whether XRP price will rise, but how high it needs to go to slow institutional buying. His latest model examines ETF inflows and estimates the “average price” XRP may need as asset managers continue accumulating.
New Formula for the ETF Era
Steingraber says that forecasting XRP’s future value requires looking at its average price across different market growth stages, rather than focusing on a single target.
In a conservative scenario with $33.6 billion in annual institutional inflows, ETF issuers could quickly absorb XRP if prices remain low.
Currently, ETF demand is soaring. Steingraber argues that only a rising price can naturally slow how fast asset managers accumulate XRP. In his model, price acts as a throttle controlling supply.
For context, XRP ETFs now manage $644 million in assets, achieved in just eight trading days. Notably, ETFs contributing to this XRP acquisition include Canary Capital, Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton.
How XRP Price Levels Affect Supply Absorption
Steingraber’s projection outlines how many XRP units would need to be purchased per year, depending on price growth:
If XRP reaches $11.25 (a 5X increase from today’s price), ETFs could buy nearly 3 billion XRP annually.
A 10X surge to $22.5 could reduce the number to roughly 1.49 billion.
At $45 per XRP, annual demand would shrink to around 746 million; at $90, to just over 373 million; and at $225 (a 100X increase), to fewer than 150 million XRP in a full year.
In essence, Steingraber suggests that if ETF inflows remain strong, XRP’s price cannot remain flat. The higher the inflows, the higher the price must climb to prevent asset managers from rapidly consuming the entire public supply.
Conversely, if prices remain low, ETFs could absorb all of XRP’s supply very quickly.
ETF Demand Puts XRP Under Pressure
Steingraber’s model reinforces his earlier warning: XRP faces only two outcomes in the ETF era. Either ETFs accumulate most of the circulating supply at current prices, or rising prices slow their buying.
His “One-Day Billion” scenario showed that twelve ETFs could demand over a billion dollars’ worth of XRP per day under aggressive assumptions.
Even now, demand is significant. Canary Capital’s XRPC ETF raised $245 million on day one and has reached $329 million so far.
Bitwise has secured $168 million in XRP. Franklin and Grayscale have attracted about $150 million two days after launch, with three more issuers planning spot XRP products.
Earlier estimates suggest that seven ETFs alone could bring $7–$10 billion annually.
Delayed Price Reaction
Despite these inflows, XRP trades quietly near $2. XRPL Foundation Board Director Fabio Marzella notes that most issuers buy XRP via OTC desks, keeping early demand off public exchanges.
Coupled with Bitcoin’s dip below $100K, XRP’s price has remained muted. However, Steingraber’s models predict that rising ETF inflows and tightening supply will soon disrupt this calm.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
