Prominent XRP community commentator Pumpius says XRP’s poor performance in Q4 2025 may actually be due to deeper institutional involvement.

Notably, while the XRP price has struggled, Pumpius believes positioning matters more than short-term price action. According to him, investors who understand this difference stay calm and prepare instead of reacting emotionally.

XRP Having a Difficult Quarter Despite Bullish Developments 

For context, XRP has had a difficult quarter. In Q4 2025, the price has dropped 35.47%, putting it on track for its worst quarterly performance since Q2 2022, when the Terra collapse shook the crypto market. This decline has occurred alongside a wider market downturn that has dragged down most crypto assets.

Meanwhile, despite the price drop, Pumpius pointed out in his recent commentary that several positive developments have surrounded Ripple and the XRP ecosystem during this same period. 

Specifically, XRP ETFs launched and recently crossed the $1 billion inflow mark. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced XRP futures and spot-linked derivatives. In addition, Ripple acquired Hidden Road and rebranded it to Ripple Prime, a prime brokerage platform for institutional clients.

Moreover, the broader financial sector has shown growing interest in blockchain systems. For instance, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) approved steps toward tokenizing stocks and bonds. 

Major banks have held discussions with U.S. lawmakers about the crypto market structure. At the same time, the XRP Ledger expanded into digital identity tools, zero-knowledge privacy features, and institutional settlement infrastructure.

How The Muted Price Growth Shows Institutional Involvement 

Pumpius explained that, in a market moved mainly by retail traders, this level of positive news would likely push prices sharply higher. However, XRP did not see this reaction. Instead, the price has stayed range-bound, which he believes sends an important signal.

According to Pumpius, this means that XRP no longer trades like a retail-focused asset. He argued that institutions now influence its price behavior, and large investors do not buy after prices surge. They prefer to control price ranges while they build positions over time.

He called attention to the growing role of derivatives in determining XRP’s price. Pumpius noted the steady expansion of derivatives markets, strong liquidity at key price levels, and funding markets having more influence than spot trading. He also highlighted repeated resistance near clear breakout points as a sign of institutional activity.

Pumpius said crypto derivatives allow institutions to use leverage efficiently and manage short-term price movement. XRP suits this approach because it offers deep liquidity, global reach, and clearer regulation compared to many other digital assets. These features make it easier for institutions to take large positions without attracting unnecessary risk.

‘Price is what you see. Positioning is what matters

He stressed that weak price action does not mean demand has disappeared. Instead, Pumpius believes institutions continue to accumulate XRP quietly. According to him, they do this through OTC trades, ETF creation processes, treasury structures, and prime brokerage channels, while derivatives markets keep prices under control and push out short-term traders.

Pumpius compared this pattern to commodity markets, where prices often stay flat before major repricing phases. He believes many XRP holders feel frustrated because they still expect fast retail-style rallies, even though XRP has moved into an institutional phase.

Looking at the broader picture, Pumpius argued that major institutions do not build on networks they view as failures. He said governments do not develop digital identity systems on unstable chains, banks do not align regulation with assets they plan to ignore, and the DTCC does not move toward tokenized capital markets without reliable finality.

Pumpius concluded that XRP’s lower volatility alongside growing real-world utility suggests deliberate positioning by large players. “Price is what you see. Positioning is what matters,” he remarked, noting that investors who know the difference between both do not panic.

Oliver Michel, CEO of Tokentus Investment AG, recently commented on the ongoing XRP performance on the German finance channel DER AKTIONÄR TV. 

He discussed the growing disconnect between Ripple’s business progress and XRP’s market price. Michel acknowledged that XRP’s price action has been weak, noting that the token has fallen from its recent peak. However, he stressed that this decline does not reflect what is happening on the operational side at Ripple.

For context, XRP is trading at $1.85, down 10% over the past month.

XRP Price Out of Sync with Business Performance

According to Michel, Ripple Labs continues to execute strongly, expanding through acquisitions, pursuing regulated banking pathways, and rolling out new products such as stablecoins. 

He described the Ripple ecosystem as comparable to an “Amazon-style” platform for blockchain and crypto services. To him, the company is exceptionally well-positioned in the long term.

Michel explained the situation using a simple analogy: sometimes business fundamentals lead, and price follows later. At other times, price moves ahead of fundamentals. In XRP’s case, he believes the market is currently underestimating the strength of Ripple’s operations.

From his perspective, this mismatch creates frustration for XRP holders, but it is not unusual in financial markets. He stressed that short-term market conditions often drive price movements, while operational progress plays out over a much longer horizon.

Institutional Demand Adds to the Disconnect

Michel also pointed to institutional interest in the recently launched spot XRP exchange-traded products. These products have recorded steady inflows over an extended period. Specifically, five XRP ETFs have gone live since November, bringing in $1.13 billion in inflows. Their total assets now sit at $1.25 billion.

However, despite this massive investment, XRP’s price has continued to dip. Michel argued that this trend deepens the mystery surrounding XRP’s price weakness as institutional demand moves in the opposite direction of the market price.

He believes this is a timing issue, not a deeper problem. According to Michel, the growth in institutional and business adoption hasn’t yet shown up in XRP’s price, but that gap could close in the future.

Price Weakness is Temporary

The Tokentus CEO concluded that holders should see XRP’s current price behavior as temporary. He expects that, at some point, the market will reconcile Ripple’s operational success with XRP’s valuation, potentially leading to a sharp repricing once the lag is corrected.

While Michel did not offer a specific timeline, he believes XRP’s weakness is not a sign of failure at Ripple, but rather a delay between business execution and market recognition.

Popular DeFi platform Axelar Network reportedly plans to expand its support for XRP by introducing the token as a staking asset for validators in its ecosystem.

Eri, a well-known community figure, brought this development to XRP holders’ attention in a post on X. She said Axelar is considering allowing validators to stake XRP as part of its network security framework. 

Eri made the disclosure shortly after an X Space event titled CommonPrefix <> XRP, which featured prominent community voices, including Vet, an XRPL validator, and Dionysis Zindros, the CEO of Common Prefix. Following the discussion, Eri revealed that Axelar intends to deepen its XRP integration by enabling XRP staking.

The initiative would allow validators to stake XRP to help secure the Axelar network while earning rewards in return. Although Axelar has not yet issued an official announcement, Eri suggested the move aligns with the project’s broader effort to “double down” on XRP. 

Prior Support for XRP 

Notably, Axelar is already familiar to the XRP community. Earlier this year, the project joined other platforms exploring XRP-based DeFi use cases on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).

Consequently, it partnered with Midas to launch the liquid staking token mXRP. This product allows users to swap their XRP for mXRP and access yield-bearing opportunities, with returns of up to 10% APY.

Now, as Eri suggests, Axelar is preparing to take its XRP support a step further by formally adding the token as a staking asset for validators across its network. Meanwhile, Eri also revealed that the Axelar team plans to bring Solana (SOL) into its ecosystem as early as Q1 2026. 

XRP Staking and Yield-Bearing Initiatives 

It is widely known that XRP’s underlying blockchain, the XRP Ledger (XRPL), does not support native staking. As a result, XRP has lagged behind other established tokens in the DeFi landscape. 

In response, the community has begun exploring ways to introduce native staking on XRPL. Ripple’s development arm, RippleX, recently featured in renewed discussion around the idea last month.

While these conversations continue, other networks have already stepped in to fill the gap. For instance, Flare Networks rolled out low-risk staking opportunities for XRP holders earlier this year.

Moreover, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson plans to provide XRP community members with higher-yield opportunities. He recently suggested that the XRP ecosystem holds an untapped $100 billion DeFi opportunity and pledged to accelerate efforts to bring this XRP-focused DeFi initiative to market next year.

Meanwhile, Ripple CTO David Schwartz has voiced support for XRP’s expanding DeFi landscape. Earlier this month, he endorsed a newly launched XRP DeFi product from Hex Trust, describing the offering—built around a wrapped XRP token (wXRP)—as a positive development for the ecosystem.

A crypto commentator has pointed to a sharp decline in XRP holders’ profitability, arguing that the downturn could set the stage for a major price reversal.

Amid the market-wide sell-off, analyst Steph Is Crypto noted that 48% of XRP’s 60.57 billion circulating supply is now underwater, meaning those tokens were purchased at prices above XRP’s current market value.

Citing on-chain data from Glassnode, Steph stated that only about 52% of the circulating supply remains in profit. He emphasized that this share has steadily declined in recent weeks as XRP’s price action weakened. 

Significance of Decline in Profitability 

Notably, this decline in profitability matters because it directly affects investor psychology. As more holders slip into losses, market participants typically become increasingly sensitive to further downside movements.

Historically, such conditions tend to heighten the risk of panic-driven selling, particularly if prices continue to drift lower. Consequently, Steph suggested that already-underwater holders may feel compelled to exit their positions during prolonged weakness, thereby adding to short-term selling pressure. 

Historical Performance Hints at Potential Rebound 

Meanwhile, the market watcher drew on a historical parallel that adds nuance to the current outlook. According to him, the last time XRP’s profitability metrics fell to similar levels was in November 2024. 

At that time, on-chain charts showed XRP profitability sliding to around 45% while the price hovered near $0.50. Shortly afterward, the post-election rally reversed the trend. Profitability surged to nearly 100% as XRP’s price climbed to almost $3 in early December 2024. 

This sequence suggests that the sharp drop in profitability did not trigger a prolonged downturn. Instead, it paved the way for a substantial upside. 

Can XRP Replicate Its November 2024 Performance? 

With XRP profitability now slipping back to levels last seen in November 2024, Steph’s commentary suggests another major uptrend may be on the horizon.

His assessment comes amid the broader crypto market downturn that has weighed heavily on XRP. The token has traded below the $2 mark since December 16 and is currently hovering around $1.85.

While Steph hints that declining profitability could precede a rebound similar to late 2024, the broader context has changed. The key catalyst behind XRP’s previous rally was the re-election of Donald Trump, widely dubbed a “Crypto President.” 

The momentum enabled XRP to record the largest gains as investors bet that Trump’s administration would resolve the Ripple lawsuit, which had weighed on the token. This outlook later materialized, driving XRP to a peak of $3.65 in July 2025.

For now, market expectations are driven by different factors. Investors are increasingly focused on the passage of the CLARITY Act and rising demand for XRP ETFs, which many believe could propel the token to new highs. It remains unclear whether these factors can spark a major rally comparable to the surge that followed Trump’s victory.