XRP continues to show severe price weakness, and analysis now suggests a further sideways trend to a 12-month low.

XRP has dropped below the $2 psychological level, owing to an 8% pullback in the past 24 hours. This brings its weekly loss to 15%, making it unprofitable for those who bought at the start of the year.

XRP Risks Further Correction

Meanwhile, the downward momentum has persisted, with whale sell-offs and a broader market trend exerting bearish pressure. Despite its already significant correction, a recent analysis predicts steeper declines in XRP price.

A look at the 8-hour chart on the XRPUSD pair shows that XRP has been forming a descending triangle since a high of $3.10 on October 2. The shape has contained the price since then until it broke down on November 17.

XRP retested the triangle’s lower support around $2.20 but could not reclaim it, breeding further corrections. With the demand zone and the $2 level now lost, all indicators suggest the bearish momentum could continue to a 12-month low of $1.55, marking an 18% correction from the current market price of $1.90.

Bearish Divergence Support Dump Narrative

Additionally, a bearish divergence on the weekly chart further confirms the downward momentum. XRP has been trading within an ascending channel since November 2024, making higher highs and higher lows.

However, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) has made lower highs in the same timeframe. This diverging development suggests a weak price uptrend, often preceding an intense correction. XRP has already broken below the ascending channel, confirming the bearish prospects.

Weak Network Activity on the XRP Ledger

Meanwhile, user traction towards the XRP Ledger has receded drastically over the past four months, contributing to the price weakness. Data from Glassnode shows that the daily active addresses on the Ledger have dropped from around 577,134 seen in mid-June to 50,725 currently.

Notably, this 91% drop indicates a lack of user interest, likely due to growing market uncertainty.

A drop in the number of new addresses on the network also confirms this lackluster disposition. After a spike to around 13,527 on November 11, the daily new user influx has reduced to 5,780 at the time of writing.

Such drops have historically contributed to a decline in trading volume and liquidity, leading to price stagnation or decline.

A new analysis explores how much XRP would need to be burned for its price to match Ethereum. 

With XRP trading at $2 and Ethereum at $2,823, the comparison highlights the enormous impact circulating supply has on valuation.

Specifically, XRP has a circulating supply of 60.25 billion coins, giving it a market cap of roughly $120.5 billion at $2 per token. Ethereum, at $2,823, has a much smaller circulating supply of 120.69 million ETH, resulting in a market cap of about $340.5 billion.

For XRP to reach the same price as Ethereum, it would need to support a similar market cap. That can only happen by drastically shrinking its circulating supply to levels comparable with Ethereum’s. 

The comparison shows that XRP’s enormous token count of over 60 billion is a primary reason its price cannot approach Ethereum’s range under current conditions.

The Supply Adjustment XRP Would Need

If XRP’s circulating supply were reduced from 60.25 billion to the same 120.69 million units Ethereum has in circulation, the price of each XRP would mathematically rise to around $2,823, assuming its market cap matched Ethereum’s. Achieving this would require eliminating almost the entire supply of XRP.

Specifically, reducing XRP’s supply from 60.25 billion to 120.69 million would mean burning approximately 60.13 billion tokens. Only then would scarcity, in theory, increase enough to push its valuation into Ethereum territory.

What a 60 Billion Burn Would Mean

Burning such a large quantity of XRP would fundamentally transform the asset. Scarcity would surge, liquidity would tighten, and the remaining tokens could become significantly more valuable. In theory, this could lift the price toward $2,823, aligning it with Ethereum’s current valuation.

However, this scenario remains extremely unlikely. Implementing a coordinated burn of more than 60 billion tokens would require community support, participation from major holders, and Ripple itself. In particular, this scenario would require people to permanently give up their XRP holdings.

This raises the question of who would actually benefit from any resulting price surge if many holders had already sacrificed their tokens to enable it.

Meanwhile, supply reduction alone doesn’t determine price. Without sustained demand, even a drastic supply cut wouldn’t guarantee Ethereum-level pricing for XRP.

Realistic Long-Term Supply Reductions

Recent discussions around XRP’s deflationary nature highlight a more gradual path. XRP burns tokens through transaction fees, averaging roughly 5,000 tokens per day.

Some projections suggest that if this rises to 15,000 or even 20,000 daily, total supply could shrink more noticeably by 2035.

However, at the current burn rate, only around 1.8 million XRP are burned per year — insignificant compared to the 100 billion maximum supply.

Meanwhile, analysts studying long-term burn scenarios estimate that even with rising network activity, XRP might shed only a few dozen million tokens over the next decade — far from the 60 billion required to create Ethereum-like scarcity.

A separate model explores what XRP’s price would look like if the circulating supply fell to 40 billion tokens. Assuming the market cap remains around $179 billion, XRP could trade near $4.48.

If demand grows while supply declines, the price could rise toward $6 or even higher. In more aggressive scenarios that combine burns with increased utility, some projections place long-term values in the $12 to $16 range.

Theory Only, Not a Practical Path

Burning more than 60 billion XRP to match Ethereum’s supply is mathematically sound but economically unrealistic. Ripple and other large holders are unlikely to destroy assets worth over $180 billion at today’s prices.

Stellar previously executed a massive supply burn and saw little lasting impact on its token price, casting doubt on the effectiveness of engineered scarcity on price.

A more realistic future for XRP lies in gradual, organic developments. Token burns through regular network activity, and the ongoing adoption of Ripple’s payment solutions remains the true driver of long-term value.