Investors seeking to retire with $1 million or $5 million while holding 10,000 XRP would have to wait a few more years, according to popular projections.

While the crypto market has slipped into a volatile period, most XRP investors remain unfazed amid confidence in its potential. Interestingly, XRP has recovered nearly 7% over the past 24 hours, as the broader market enters a rebound stage following the pullback over the weekend due to geopolitical tensions.

Optimism Amid Market Uncertainty

Despite XRP briefly slumping below the pivotal $2 support during the market-wide crash, market participants have maintained optimism. Interestingly, as a result of this optimism, pundits such as Xena boldly suggested that XRP would still not drop below $1 amid the pullback. 

In a previous commentary, when Alpha Lions Academy founder Edoardo Farina asked what investors would do if XRP ever fell below $1 again, Vandell Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, mentioned that he would procure more XRP tokens at the discount.

Farina himself has persistently urged investors to continue accumulating more XRP tokens, charging them to aim for an investment goal of at least 10,000 XRP. When XRP dropped to $1.9 over the weekend, these 10,000 tokens were worth $19,000. However, at the current price of $2.15, they now go for $21,500.

As a result of the susceptibility to drastic change over small price movements, Farina has urged market participants to procure these 10,000 XRP tokens today while they still can before the market prices the everyday investor out. The primary reason behind his call is the confidence that XRP will soar to the extent that those holding 10,000 tokens would become financially “free.”

How High XRP Needs to Go for You to Retire with 10,000 Tokens

However, the idea of financial freedom, which hinges on the concept of retirement, is relative to each investor. While some individuals can afford to retire with as little as $500,000 in countries with lower living costs, others may require as much as $5 million. 

Recently, we assessed how high XRP would need to go for investors holding 10,000 XRP to retire on a $1 million or $5 million plan. Specifically, XRP would have to rally to $100 per token for an investment of 10,000 tokens to reach the $1 million target. Meanwhile, to reach the $5 million target, XRP must surge to $500 per token.

With XRP currently trading for $2.15, it must rally by a massive 4,551% to reach the $100 price mark. Moreover, to claim $500, a greater upsurge of 23,155% is necessary. 

Interestingly, several analysts believe the $100 price is achievable. Most recently, The Modern Investors insisted that the fact that XRP is not trading for $100 yet shows the market is still early. Moreover, Farina projected last year that XRP at $500 could be a bargain price worth bragging about by 2029.

However, what do popular predictions say? According to market platform Changelly, XRP could claim the $100 price mark between 2034 and 2040. The platform then suggests that XRP could skyrocket further to reach the ambitious $500 price target by April 2040.

The XRP price could skyrocket by over 2,200% from the current value if XRP resumes its upsurge momentum after the Bitcoin halving.

Notably, the Bitcoin halving, which reduces Bitcoin’s issuance rate every four years, typically has a positive impact on Bitcoin price, as it triggers a drop in inflation amid growing demand. 

Interestingly, this event not only affects Bitcoin’s price. Due to the firstborn crypto’s influence on the broader market, altcoins such as XRP also react positively. As a result, analysts believe the next Bitcoin halving could have a massive impact on XRP price.

For context, Bitcoin has undergone four halvings since its inception in 2009. However, XRP has only been around for three of those halvings, having launched in 2013, and the effect of each of these three halvings has been undeniable.

XRP Price Action After Each Bitcoin Halving

Specifically, during the second Bitcoin halving in July 2016, the XRP price traded for $0.0066. Interestingly, 12 months after this event, in June 2017, XRP had claimed a peak price of $0.3662. This represented a massive 5,448% increase from its price during the second halving.

When the third Bitcoin halving occurred in May 2020, XRP traded for $0.21. The XRP price skyrocketed 12 months later despite the bearish pressure introduced by the SEC lawsuit from December 2020. By April 2021, about 12 months after the third halving, XRP had hit a peak price of $1.96, representing an 833% rise from the price during the halving.

Meanwhile, as the fourth halving emerged in April 2024, XRP price traded for $0.55 at the time. Following the persistent pattern, XRP surged to $3 about 12 months after the halving, in March 2025. This marked a 445% increase from the price of $0.55 during the April 2024 halving.

While XRP had already attained legal clarity in the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit at the time of the fourth halving, it still has some legal baggage, as the final resolution of the case is still pending. With this case coming up in December 2020, it naturally impacted XRP’s uptrend potential in 2021 and 2024.

XRP Price After 2028 Bitcoin Halving 

Now, both the SEC and Ripple are already looking to settle the case, having dropped their appeals. By the time of the fifth halving, expected to occur in April 2028, XRP would have gotten rid of this legal baggage. This could translate to a more explosive rally.

The average of these three rallies is 2,242%. Notably, historical data shows that XRP has always traded at a higher price after each halving. Now, before the April 2028 halving, which would come up three years later, the XRP price, currently at $2.00, could have skyrocketed beyond this mark.

However, assuming a conservative XRP price of $2.00 by April 2028, during the fifth halving, a 2,242% increase 12 months after this would translate to a price of $49.18 by March 2029. Interestingly, analysts at Telegaon believe XRP could only reach a maximum price of around $48 by 2030.

Nonetheless, these values depend on mere assumptions. In reality, XRP is unlikely to trade at $2.00 by April 2028. Also, it remains uncertain if the asset could actually rally by over 2,000% within a year after the next Bitcoin halving.

The XRP fair valuation calculator estimates that XRP price could reach the double-digit region at an ambitious $100 billion volume.

Tensions in the Middle East, especially the growing conflict between Iran and Israel, have rattled global markets. In the crypto scene, major assets like XRP have taken a hit. 

In particular, XRP has struggled to hold the important $2 mark, trading for $2.01, having dropped 7% in the past week. Even with this dip, many still believe XRP price doesn’t reflect its real value. Its expanding role in cross-border payments has fueled this belief and inspired new ways to measure what XRP should truly be worth.

One such model comes from Susan Athey and Stanford researcher Robert Mitchnick. Specifically, their research presents a method for valuing crypto assets based on how much utility they provide. 

Parameters Used

Interestingly, a calculator built from this model helps estimate a fair value for XRP using real-world data and expectations. We used that calculator to see what XRP could be worth if it handled $100 billion in daily transaction volume, and the result may surprise you.

We started with a projected daily transaction volume of $100 billion, entered into the calculator as $0.1 trillion. Notably, the highest daily volume XRP has recorded in recent history is $51.7 billion, observed on Dec. 2, 2024. As more banks and financial institutions start using XRP to move money, a $100 billion daily volume could become possible.

Next, we added the average time between transactions for one XRP token. We used 10 days to show how often a token might change hands in a fast-moving financial system. If banks or payment processors use XRP to settle multiple transactions daily, the time between uses could drop even further.

Moving forward, we then entered $115 billion for the store of value estimate. Also, we chose a two-year timeframe to represent when this level of usage and adoption might realistically happen. Some pundits believe XRP adoption could take off within that window.

Meanwhile, for the supply figure, we used 59 billion XRP. However, to adjust the future value back to today’s terms, we applied a modest 1% interest rate, pointing to expected returns over the next two years.

XRP Price At a $100B Volume

Interestingly, once we entered all these numbers, the calculator gave a price estimate of $18.53 per XRP. That’s nearly ten times its current price, showing how much room XRP could have to grow if it reaches this level of use. 

It is important to note that this model doesn’t promise where XRP price will go, but it presents a way to think about its value based on real-world utility. Notably, Telegaon analysts also expect XRP to reach the $18 level, but by 2028, three years from now.

As bearish momentum overtakes the XRP market, analysts are weighing whether now is a good time to buy XRP.

Lark Davis, a widely followed crypto YouTuber, started the conversation on X. He first acknowledged that XRP is one of the strongest crypto assets in the market. The coin has continued to defend its position as the fourth biggest crypto despite a continued sell-off.

However, Davis noted that its technical chart looks severely damaged. Still, XRP has maintained a decent chart by trading above the 200-day EMA.

He pointed out that XRP has been dangerously close to this crucial support multiple times. He highlighted that it has made four retests of the 200-day EMA since late May, with no significant rallies happening at those times.

Meanwhile, Davis noted that this is not entirely bad, as the coin has offered traders some good trading opportunities. He mentioned that the 200-day EMA is a good point for traders to go long on XRP, calling it a decent trade.

Buy XRP Now to Sell on ETF News

However, for spot buying, especially for those looking to hold long term, he advised caution. From a personal perspective, Davis stated he would only buy a large amount of XRP now to sell it later this year on the ETF pump.

Notably, the SEC could approve more than ten spot XRP ETFs by October this year, which is the final decision deadline. The regulator has deferred its decision multiple times on the products, with all eyes now focusing on the final deadline in Q4 2025. Davis says the announcement of approval could trigger FOMO since it is widely anticipated.

“Litecoin Offers Better Risk-Reward”

Meanwhile, the analyst noted that he sees more potential in Litecoin upon ETF approval than in XRP. Interestingly, he even said that if guns were held to his head and he was given $100K to put in XRP or LTC, he would choose Litecoin.

For him, the main deciding factor is Litecoin’s relatively smaller market cap compared to XRP. Specifically, Litecoin has a market cap of around $6 billion compared to XRP’s $120 billion, which is about 20 times bigger. Based on this, Davis believes LTC is more likely to see a 4X price pump faster than XRP on ETF news.

Still, he acknowledged XRP’s ability to make massive runs when the time is right, such as the 7X pump from November to January. Even now, XRP is still preserving most of those gains, up more than 300% over the past year. 

However, LTC only maintains a 9% gain during the same period. Yet, Davis maintained that Litecoin offers the best risk-reward ratio.

Analyst Targets Long Position at $1.05

Meanwhile, some other market commentators are calling for a much lower price for XRP. In a separate commentary, analyst Arthur argued, based on technical charts, that XRP is not a good buy at the moment as it holds around $2.

In his view, it would become a good buy when the price dips to $1.30. He even has much lower target prices between $1.05 and $1.10, calling that a position for a clean long.

Meanwhile, other market commentators remain bullish, believing the coin will surpass $10 this year. These proponents see the ongoing dip as mere noise.