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When Will Ripple’s XRP Escrow Run Out? Ex-Ripple CTO Shares His View

Mark Brennan
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When Will Ripple’s XRP Escrow Run Out? Ex-Ripple CTO Shares His View

David Schwartz, Ripple’s former CTO and now CTO Emeritus, recently addressed questions surrounding the eventual depletion of Ripple’s XRP escrow holdings. 

At present, Ripple controls approximately 32.9 billion XRP in escrow accounts, according to on-chain data provided by XRPScan. With the existing arrangement, the system unlocks 1 billion XRP every month.

However, Ripple does not typically utilize the entire amount. Instead, it generally places between 700 million and 800 million XRP back into escrow and retains only about 200 million to 300 million XRP for use.

Based on this pattern, the escrow balance could theoretically last for another 9.8 years before becoming exhausted. If Ripple maintained the same approach without any changes, the escrow supply could run out sometime between 2035 and 2036. 

XRP Escrow Release Compared to Bitcoin Mining

However, future adjustments to Ripple’s strategy could change this timeline. Amid this uncertainty, Kobe, an XRP community member, sought clarification from Schwartz. 

The community member noted that Ripple’s escrow eventually reaching zero could resemble the moment when Bitcoin miners produce the final BTC. Kobe suggested that both situations involve the end of a long-term distribution process. 

He also noted that Ripple’s escrow could reach that point much sooner than Bitcoin’s mining schedule. Based on his calculations, he asked whether Ripple’s escrow could effectively run out around the year 2035.

David Schwartz Explains Why the Timeline Remains Uncertain

In response, Schwartz explained that it is difficult to predict exactly when Ripple’s escrow could be depleted. He said any estimate depends on assumptions about how much XRP Ripple decides to use and how much of each monthly release the company places back into future escrow accounts.

The former Ripple CTO noted that because those factors can change over time, no one can confidently determine an exact date. Specifically, Ripple’s business needs, market conditions, and XRP usage could all affect how quickly the escrow balance decreases.

He also pointed out that Bitcoin operates under a different model. Bitcoin mining rewards gradually decrease over time instead of ending suddenly. As a result, while Bitcoin’s rewards will not disappear completely for many years, they could become less important from an economic standpoint much earlier.

Major Differences Between Bitcoin and XRP

Schwartz then explained that Bitcoin and XRP face different issues when it comes to their token distribution systems. In Bitcoin’s case, block rewards help encourage miners to secure the network whenever transaction fees alone are not enough.

He noted that greater mining participation generally leads to a more secure blockchain. If block rewards become too small, some miners may decide that mining is no longer worth the energy costs involved. They may choose to wait until transaction activity increases and fees rise enough to make mining profitable again.

According to Schwartz, this situation could lead to periods of uneven or “bursty” mining activity. He added that Bitcoin could eventually adopt changes to address such an outcome. Another possibility is that transaction fees could rise enough to continue supporting miners even as block rewards decline.

For XRP, the situation is different because Ripple’s escrow releases provide the company with XRP that it can use. Schwartz said those monthly unlocks give Ripple access to tokens that support its activities. 

While Ripple could continue carrying out many XRP-related initiatives even without escrow releases, he believes some things would likely change once the escrow system eventually comes to an end. 

Ripple would still be able to play a role in the XRP ecosystem, but its operations could look different after it no longer receives XRP through monthly escrow unlocks. 

Bloomberg ETF Analyst Explains Why XRP ETFs Are Holding Up Better Despite Price Declines

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Bloomberg ETF Analyst Explains Why XRP ETFs Are Holding Up Better Despite Price Declines

XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to attract investor capital even as XRP trades lower. 

The trend has caught the attention of Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. Speaking in a recent interview, Seyffart said XRP and Solana ETFs have shown surprising resilience. That is especially notable given that both products launched during a difficult period for the crypto market.

XRP ETFs Continue to Draw Inflows

According to Seyffart, spot XRP and Solana ETFs launched near the end of October, when the crypto market was entering a bear market. Despite those conditions, both products have continued to attract assets.

“The XRP ETFs have taken in money year to date, and they haven’t seen outflows in the way that we’ve seen for Bitcoin or Ethereum,” Seyffart said.

Data from SoSoValue supports that view. XRP ETFs recorded $1.19 million in net inflows over the past day. Since November 2025, cumulative net inflows have reached roughly $1.43 billion.

The inflows have continued even as XRP’s price weakened. XRP is currently trading at $1.12, down about 1% over the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Face Greater Pressure

Seyffart contrasted XRP’s performance with that of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Bitcoin ETFs rebounded strongly between late February and early May. However, they have recently shown signs of weakness again. Specifically, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded outflows of over $2.10 billion in the last 30 days.

Similarly, Ethereum ETFs have struggled to build momentum and have continued to record rounds of outflows. Monthly outflows have now reached $167 million.

Meanwhile, XRP and Solana ETFs have been far more stable. Most of the capital they attracted has remained invested despite significant volatility in the underlying assets, Seyffart noted.

Why Investors Are Staying Invested

Seyffart believes the difference comes down to how ETF investors approach crypto exposure. Unlike many crypto-native traders, ETF investors typically allocate only a small portion of their portfolios to digital assets. As a result, sharp price declines do not always trigger panic selling.

He said many ETF holders view crypto as a 2% to 5% portfolio allocation rather than a core investment. They also tend to enter the market with a higher tolerance for volatility.

As an example, Seyffart noted that if an asset falls 60% but retains nearly all of the inflows it attracted since launch, that would still be considered a strong outcome.

His comments suggest that XRP ETF investors are taking a longer-term view. That approach has helped funds maintain positive asset flows despite ongoing price pressure.

With cumulative inflows now above $1.4 billion, XRP ETFs is weathering the current market downturn better than many expected.

Ripple Introduces XRPL AI Starter Kit for Autonomous Payments With XRP and RLUSD

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Ripple Introduces XRPL AI Starter Kit for Autonomous Payments With XRP and RLUSD

Ripple’s developer arm, RippleX, has launched the XRPL AI Starter Kit, a toolkit to help developers build AI-powered payment applications on the XRP Ledger.

The launch comes as autonomous AI agents increasingly make payments, purchase services, and settle transactions without direct human involvement.

According to RippleX, the initiative is to position XRPL at the center of the emerging “agentic payments” economy. In this model, AI systems can independently execute financial transactions, pay for computing resources, settle invoices, and interact with digital services.

First Phase Brings AI Integration Tools

The first phase of the rollout includes several tools to simplify AI integration with XRPL. One of them is the XRPL Docs MCP Server.

It allows AI assistants such as Claude Code, Claude Desktop, Cursor, and other MCP-compatible clients to access XRP Ledger documentation directly when needed.

RippleX also introduced Claude Skills for XRPL. These tools enable AI agents to create wallets, check balances, send payments, and track transactions.

In addition, RippleX partnered with t54 to add support for the X402 protocol. This allows AI agents to transact using both XRP and Ripple USD (RLUSD).

According to the company, developers can use these tools to build applications that make and receive payments for API access, AI model inference, and other machine-to-machine services.

Why Ripple Sees XRP Ledger as a Fit for AI Payments

RippleX highlighted several XRP Ledger features that it believes are well suited for autonomous payment systems. One is deterministic finality.

Transactions either confirm or expire, eliminating uncertainty around payment status. RippleX noted that settlements typically complete within three to five seconds, allowing AI agents to act immediately after confirmation.

The company also pointed to XRPL’s predictable transaction costs. Unlike networks that rely on gas auctions, XRPL does not require fee estimation. RippleX said this creates a more reliable environment for AI systems managing budgets and recurring payments.

Another feature is XRPL’s native decentralized exchange and multi-currency payment capabilities. RippleX said AI agents can transact with both RLUSD and XRP in a single operation, with conversions handled through the ledger’s built-in DEX.

RLUSD for AI Commerce

RippleX also highlighted RLUSD, Ripple’s U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin. The company argued that many AI-driven use cases, including payroll, invoice settlement, and agent-to-agent commerce, require price stability.

Because RLUSD is native to XRPL, it can use the same payment infrastructure and transaction features available to XRP.

RippleX said RLUSD offers organizations a dollar-denominated asset for autonomous payment workflows while still benefiting from XRPL’s built-in exchange functionality.

Ripple Targets the Emerging Agent Economy

RippleX described the launch as the first step in an effort to support the growing AI agent economy. The company said future phases of the XRPL AI Starter Kit will be shaped by developer feedback and real-world adoption.

As blockchain networks compete for a role in AI finance, Ripple is positioning XRPL’s fast settlement, low fees, and built-in payment infrastructure as key advantages for developers building autonomous financial systems.

Macro Confluence Setup Shows Condition XRP Must Fulfill Before Rally to $27

Mark Brennan
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Macro Confluence Setup Shows Condition XRP Must Fulfill Before Rally to $27

XRP may currently be witnessing a macro confluence that could eventually push prices toward double digits if the proper conditions align.

XRP entered the month under massive selling pressure, extending its decline and falling to a new yearly low near $1.05. Although buyers later stepped in and helped the cryptocurrency recover to around $1.11, the asset remains down 16.38% since the start of the month. 

XRP Witnessing Confluence of Bullish Technical Signals

Amid the recent weakness, well-known crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto identified what he called a growing macro confluence of technical signals that could influence XRP’s next major move, possibly leading to an ultimate target of $27.

In his recent analysis, EGRAG pointed out that several independent technical structures currently point toward the same critical decision zone.

According to him, the convergence includes Fibonacci Circles, which he uses to track timing and price rhythm, Fibonacci Channels that show a potential expansion path, Fibonacci Extensions that establish target zones, and a falling wedge pattern showing a period of compression before a possible breakout. 

He emphasized that individual indicators tend to carry limited predictive power. However, multiple signals aligning in the same area can increase the probability of a sustained market move.

Falling Wedge Structure is the Key Trigger

According to EGRAG, XRP is currently trading within a falling wedge and also sitting inside a major Fibonacci timing window. He believes this combination is one of the most important developments on the chart right now.

XRP Confluence Setup EGRAG Crypto
XRP Confluence Setup | EGRAG Crypto

The falling wedge began forming after XRP dropped from its all-time high of $3.60 in July 2025. Since reaching that peak, the cryptocurrency has recorded a series of lower highs and lower lows, gradually creating the wedge structure. 

During late 2025, XRP made several attempts to move above the upper trendline of the pattern. However, sellers repeatedly pushed the price back down, preventing a breakout and keeping XRP inside the wedge.

EGRAG believes the wedge will determine XRP’s next major move. Notably, the upper trendline currently sits around $1.66, and a breakout above this level would activate a more bullish outlook. From the current price of about $1.11, XRP would need to gain roughly 49% to reach that level.

However, the analyst noted that touching the trendline alone would not be enough. XRP would need to break out of the wedge and reclaim the broader $2 mark. A successful move above $2 would help the case for a larger rally and open the door to higher targets.

XRP Fibonacci Targets Extend as High as $27.68

If XRP completes the required breakout sequence, EGRAG believes the market could begin targeting a series of Fibonacci-based objectives. His first major target sits at $8.48, corresponding to the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level. Above that, he identified $13.70 at the 1.414 Fibonacci extension.

The analyst also highlighted a midpoint target box at $18.06 before pointing to a longer-term objective of $27.68, which aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. 

Despite outlining these ambitious targets, EGRAG cautioned that traders should wait for confirmation before becoming overly optimistic. 

He warned that failure to break out of the wedge could send XRP back toward lower support levels. In that bearish scenario, the asset could revisit $1.21, followed by $0.90 and potentially $0.60.

XRP Seeing Mixed Near-Term Signals

Meanwhile, following the recent market decline, analyst Ali Martinez reported that the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator generated a buy signal on XRP’s three-day chart. According to Martinez, that signal suggests the possibility of a rebound after the recent weakness.

However, analyst CrediBULL stated that, in the short to medium term, the market currently favors Ethereum over XRP until the XRP/ETH trading pair declines approximately 30% further and reaches at least the middle of its range.

CrediBULL also argued that XRP/ETH may have already established its macro bottom within the current range. To him, the pair could experience another decline of more than 30%, form a higher low, and then allow XRP to resume outperforming Ethereum. 

XRPETH 3D Chart CrediBULL
XRPETH 3D Chart | CrediBULL

As a result, he sees Ethereum as the stronger choice for short-term and medium-term traders. But he maintained that XRP has greater overall upside potential than Ethereum for investors looking to buy spot positions and hold until profit-taking opportunities emerge.

Ripple CEO Responds as Flare Founder Says Crypto Industry Is Now Chasing XRP ‘Banker Coin’ Vision

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Ripple CEO Responds as Flare Founder Says Crypto Industry Is Now Chasing XRP ‘Banker Coin’ Vision

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has joined an ongoing discussion within the XRP community regarding recent comments from Flare co-founder Hugo Philion.

Philion argued that Ripple and XRP were once criticized for targeting banks and payment providers. Today, however, much of the crypto industry is pursuing the same strategy.

He shared this view during a recent interview with AllInCrypto. XRP community figure BankXRP later shared clips from the interview on X. Garlinghouse responded to the post with a brief comment: “True.”

Philion Says the Industry Has Moved Toward XRP’s Vision

During the interview, Philion said he had long been interested in XRP because of its focus on solving real-world payment problems. In his view, Ripple’s payments strategy has largely been on the right track despite years of regulatory challenges.

He also pointed to a major shift in industry sentiment. In XRP’s early years, critics often labeled it the “banker coin” because of Ripple’s focus on financial institutions.

Today, Philion noted that many blockchain projects are trying to build relationships with banks, payment companies, and other traditional financial players. As a result, criticism once directed at XRP now appears ironic.

According to Philion, Ripple has remained relatively consistent with its original goals. Meanwhile, the crypto industry has gradually moved toward the same opportunity.

Garlinghouse Backs the View

Garlinghouse responded with “True,” a one-word reply that endorses Philion’s assessment. Supporters argue that Ripple’s focus on institutional adoption and cross-border payments was ahead of its time.

Meanwhile, Australian lawyer and XRP supporter Bill Morgan also weighed in on the discussion. Morgan highlighted what he sees as another contradiction in the criticism surrounding Ripple. He noted that the company has been criticized both for holding large amounts of XRP and for selling portions of its holdings.

His comments suggested that Ripple has often faced criticism regardless of how it manages its XRP reserves.

Why Flare Built Around XRP

Philion also explained why XRP became a key focus for Flare. According to him, XRP was a natural starting point for the network’s development. He believed the asset represented a major opportunity that many investors and venture capital firms failed to recognize.

Philion recalled that some investors questioned Flare’s decision to focus on XRP. However, he argued that they underestimated the scale of the opportunity.

He pointed to the large amount of capital held by XRP investors and said those assets needed more utility beyond simple transfers and long-term holding.

Expanding DeFi for XRP Holders

Rather than targeting Bitcoin first, Flare chose to focus on XRP because it lacked a meaningful decentralized finance ecosystem, Philion said. Building a DeFi market around XRP was not easy. Still, he believes the effort is beginning to gain traction.

His comments are part of an ongoing push within the XRP ecosystem to expand utility beyond payments. Projects such as Flare are working to bring DeFi services to XRP holders and create new use cases for the asset.

Flare’s FXRP initiative launched in 2025 and has continued to reach new milestones, including nearing 200 million circulating tokens.

Shiba Inu Joins Major Japan Marketplace With Access to 23 Million Users

Lele Jima
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Shiba Inu Joins Major Japan Marketplace With Access to 23 Million Users

Japanese marketplace giant Mercari has added Shiba Inu to its cryptocurrency lineup, giving its 23 million monthly users direct access to SHIB.

The listing forms part of Mercari’s broader expansion of its cryptocurrency trading service, which launched in 2023 through its subsidiary, Mercoin. Initially, the platform allowed users to purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP using proceeds from marketplace sales or reward points earned on the app. 

Shiba Inu Joins Mercoin’s List of Supported Assets 

Mercoin specifically designed the service for beginners with little or no cryptocurrency experience. As a result, the platform has attracted more than 4 million accounts within three years. Now, by adding 12 new cryptocurrencies, including Shiba Inu, Mercoin has expanded its supported assets to 15, offering users a wider range of investment options.

The rollout is supported by Coincheck’s Crypto as a Service (CaaS) infrastructure, which enables external platforms such as Mercoin to integrate cryptocurrency trading and custody services.

Speaking at a recent conference, as reported by local news outlet Nada News, Mercoin CEO Keita Nakamura revealed that approximately 85% of the platform’s users were new to cryptocurrency. He noted that the company deliberately focused on BTC, ETH, and XRP in its early stages to simplify the onboarding process and help users take their first step into digital assets.

Having successfully lowered barriers to entry, Mercari is now moving into the next phase of user engagement by offering Shiba Inu and a broader selection of cryptocurrencies tailored to different interests and preferences.

Why Shiba Inu Fits Mercari’s Strategy

SHIB’s inclusion is particularly notable because of its strong community-driven appeal. According to Nakamura, many users view cryptocurrencies not only as investment vehicles but also as digital collectibles that they enjoy accumulating and tracking over time.

This behavior closely aligns with Shiba Inu’s culture and loyal global community. Unlike many traditional cryptocurrencies, SHIB has built a strong identity around community participation, making it attractive to casual investors and newcomers alike. 

Moreover, Shiba Inu is included in Japan’s Green List, a designation that simplifies exchange listings and broadens investor access. As a result, new Japanese investors can benefit from a more favorable tax regime, with crypto gains taxed at a flat 20% rate instead of rates that can reach as high as 55%.   

Additionally, SHIB’s low unit price lowers the psychological barrier to entry. At press time, the token traded at approximately $0.000004698 with a market cap of $2.77 billion. Consequently, users can acquire large quantities of SHIB with relatively small amounts of capital, making it an accessible option for first-time investors.

Shiba Inu Trading Activity Falls Sharply

While Mercari’s listing expands SHIB’s exposure, the token enters the platform during declining market activity.

According to data cited by BSCNews from Artemis, Shiba Inu recorded approximately $673.2 million in daily trading volume on July 18, 2025. Since then, average daily volume has fallen to around $100 million, representing an 84% decline in less than a year. 

At press time, SHIB’s 24-hour trading volume stood at $66.72 million, down 3% over the previous day. As trading activity continues to contract, meme-based cryptocurrencies such as SHIB face increasing pressure to maintain relevance, attract new users, and sustain community engagement. 

In this context, Mercari’s decision to list SHIB could provide the token with fresh exposure to millions of potential retail participants in one of the world’s largest consumer marketplaces. 

Bitcoin Demand Drops by 652,000 BTC, but Capitulation Remains Absent: CryptoQuant

Abdulkarim Abdulwahab
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Bitcoin Demand Drops by 652,000 BTC, but Capitulation Remains Absent: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin may be approaching a valuation zone that has historically marked bear market bottoms. 

However, on-chain data suggests the market has not yet experienced the level of seller exhaustion typically seen before a major recovery.

According to a recent CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin recently fell to a new bear market low of $59,000. That puts it just 9% above its realized price of $53,600.

The realized price reflects the average cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation. Historically, it has acted as a floor during major bear market cycles.

CryptoQuant noted that previous bear markets ended when Bitcoin traded near or slightly below its realized price. This suggests the market is entering a zone where long-term bottoms have previously formed.

Bitcoin Demand Continues to Weaken

Despite Bitcoin’s attractive valuation, demand indicators remain weak. CryptoQuant reported that total Bitcoin demand fell by 652,000 BTC over the past week. The metric combines speculative futures activity with apparent spot demand. According to the firm, this marks the largest demand contraction since January 2022.

Long-term spot demand is also deteriorating. CryptoQuant’s one-year apparent demand growth metric has turned negative and reached its weakest level since February 2024.

This suggests new buying activity is not strong enough to absorb available supply. While valuation metrics point to a potential floor, CryptoQuant said weak demand remains a major obstacle to confirming a market bottom.

ETF Demand Sees Record Decline

The report also highlighted a sharp reversal in spot Bitcoin ETF demand. According to CryptoQuant, ETF purchases are shrinking at the fastest pace since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. The 30-day growth rate of ETF demand has dropped to its lowest reading on record.

Institutional investors have been a key driver of Bitcoin’s current market cycle. As a result, the shift from accumulation to net selling by ETF investors has become a significant headwind.

CryptoQuant described the current pace of ETF outflows as historically unusual. The trend suggests institutional demand has not only stalled but is actively declining.

Market Capitulation Has Not Happened Yet

Meanwhile, another important signal comes from realized losses. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin holders realized losses totaling 187,000 BTC over the past 30 days. While the figure is substantial, it remains well below levels from previous capitulation events.

For comparison, investors realized losses of roughly 400,000 BTC in February 2026 when Bitcoin first fell into the $60,000 range during the current bear market.

Losses were even larger after the FTX collapse. At that time, realized losses surged to around 1.2 million BTC as Bitcoin established its cycle bottom.

According to CryptoQuant, major market bottoms typically form after panic selling reaches extreme levels and sellers become exhausted. Current data suggests that the stage has not yet arrived.

Image

Floor is Near, But Not Confirmed Yet

CryptoQuant concluded that Bitcoin is approaching a valuation floor. However, the firm does not see enough evidence to confirm a cycle bottom.

Analysts believe a sustainable recovery will require several developments. These include stabilizing demand, a revival of ETF inflows, and a stronger capitulation signal from market participants.

Until then, CryptoQuant says investors should view the current price range as a historically attractive value zone rather than proof that Bitcoin’s bear market correction is over.

Bitcoin Repeating 2022 Macro Wave 2 That Preceded an 8x Surge

Elendu Benedict
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Bitcoin Repeating 2022 Macro Wave 2 That Preceded an 8x Surge

The latest Bitcoin correction is drawing comparisons to the 2022 downturn, which came before the asset surged 8x to the 2025 all-time high.

Top market analyst TARA pointed to similarities in structure between these two market phases in a recent Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis on X. Her analysis suggested that BTC is currently in this repeating macro wave 2 pattern, offering clues about what comes next.

While no two cycles unfold the same way, her analysis of the behavior seen during the 2022 major pullback is raising questions about whether the current decline has not run its full course.

Comparing Bitcoin’s Current Correction With the 2022 Pattern

According to TARA’s analysis, the 2022 downturn followed a classic ABC corrective structure, with an initial decline, a relief rally, and then a final leg lower. 

Wave A started from the November 2021 peak of $69,000 and pushed BTC to a low of $33,000 in January 2022. The relief rally of wave B sparked a short-lived recovery from the low to $48,200 in March 2022. What followed was a steeper leg down during wave C, pulling the asset to the November 2022 bottom near $15,000.

The commentator suggested that the current market trend shows that Bitcoin may still be somewhere in the middle stages of a similar setup. In an accompanying chart, she marked the area between the end of wave B and the start of the final wave C as the current BTC position.

Bitcoin Price Analysis/TARA
Bitcoin Price Analysis/TARA

However, TARA noted that there is not yet clear confirmation that the previous rebound to $82,800 in May marks the end of the relief rally phase. To confirm this, the analyst noted that Bitcoin would need to rebound to at least $72,800 and form another resistance there. From the current price of $61,900, this represents a 17% increase.

The Final BTC Leg Lower Could Arrive Without Warning

The analyst further highlighted that one of the most notable features of the 2022 correction was how quickly the final decline unfolded. After the relief rally ended, Bitcoin moved lower with very few meaningful rebounds, offering little opportunity for market participants to reposition before prices dumped again.

Notably, wave C correction occurred between March and November 2022. In the first 12 weeks, BTC recorded red candles in 11 of them, with its price dropping quickly from $48,200 to $17,500 in June 2022.

According to the analyst, this may repeat with no extra warnings. If the market follows a similar path as in 2022, the next major leg down could develop faster than many expect. However, she did not share a particular target for the final wave down.

What Happened After the 2022 Bitcoin Bottom

TARA also noted that prices did not immediately start rebounding after wave C reached its target bottom in November 2022. When Bitcoin hit $15,000 during the corrective phase, it spent about nine weeks consolidating within a relatively tight range. After this, BTC finally broke above resistance and began a new upward phase.

That period of consolidation proved just as important as the decline itself. It allowed selling pressure to fade while longer-term buyers gradually returned to the market. If a similar process develops during the current cycle, patience may be required even after the coin reaches its bottom.

After this, however, Bitcoin rebounded massively. From the lows, it bounced over 8x to its October 2025 all-time high of $126,200. This proved that the macro wave 2 pattern was all part of a broader bullish picture where the asset retests key support levels after a bull run before launching beyond earlier highs to uncharted territories.

If this pattern repeats, BTC could eventually break above the October 2025 peak to new all-time highs.

How Could Bitcoin React as Core CPI Comes in Soft, While Headline CPI Hits 2023 Highs

Sam Wisdom Raphael
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How Could Bitcoin React as Core CPI Comes in Soft, While Headline CPI Hits 2023 Highs

Bitcoin recovered slightly after the latest U.S. inflation report, which revealed softer core CPI data but higher-than-expected headline CPI.

The U.S. inflation report failed to give any clear signals to financial markets, as overall inflation continued to rise but underlying price pressures came in lower than experts expected. 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on June 10, 2026, leading to an immediate reaction in financial markets, including Bitcoin (BTC).

Headline Inflation Rises, But Core CPI Misses Expectations

In the May CPI report, headline CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, slightly lower than April’s 0.6% increase. On an annual basis, headline inflation climbed to 4.2%, up from 3.8% in the previous month and in line with market expectations.

The 4.2% annual reading marked the highest headline inflation rate since around mid-2023. It also represented the third consecutive month of accelerating inflation.

Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-over-month, below the roughly 0.3% increase economists expected and lower than April’s 0.4% reading. This softer monthly result became the main surprise in the report.

However, annual core inflation still moved higher. Core CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, matching analyst forecasts and increasing from the previous 2.8% reading. Although the monthly figure came in below expectations, the annual rate reached its highest level since September 2025.

Insurance Costs Responsible for the Core CPI Surprise

Much of the softer monthly core inflation reading came from an unexpected drop in automobile insurance prices. The car insurance index fell 1.7% from the previous month, marking its largest monthly decline since the COVID period. Before the release, most economists expected only a small decline of around 0.1% to 0.2%.

Without this sharp drop in insurance costs, core CPI would likely have come in above expectations. This suggests that the softer reading resulted from one specific category, not a broad slowdown in inflation.

Following the release, Bloomberg Economics analysts Anna Wong and Troy Durie noted that core CPI came in below even their expectations for a relatively subdued May report. 

Earlier this year, Peter Orszag of Lazard and Adam S. Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) warned that inflation could rise above 4% by the end of 2026.

What the CPI Report Could Mean for Bitcoin

The mixed inflation data has important implications for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Cryptocurrency markets often follow CPI reports because they influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, Treasury yields, U.S. dollar strength, market liquidity, and investor appetite for risk.

The 4.2% annual headline CPI reading supports the idea that interest rates may stay higher for longer or that the Fed could delay future rate cuts. Much of the increase came from energy-related factors, including oil price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran. 

Higher inflation can strengthen the U.S. dollar and push bond yields higher, creating a more difficult environment for non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the softer 0.2% monthly core CPI reading provides a more supportive signal for risk assets. 

Because Federal Reserve officials pay closer attention to core inflation when assessing underlying price pressures, the lower-than-expected reading may reduce concerns that inflation is spreading more broadly throughout the economy. 

This leads to a mixed outlook for Bitcoin. The softer core reading offers some short-term support by easing fears of additional tightening, while the stronger headline inflation figure keeps concerns about persistent inflation alive. 

Many market participants now view the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 17 and its updated dot plot projections as the next major event that could influence Bitcoin’s direction.

Bitcoin Reacts After CPI Release

Bitcoin responded immediately after the CPI data became public. After the release of the report, Bitcoin gained 0.84% within a single 15-minute candle.

After a brief pullback during the next 45 minutes, buying activity returned. Bitcoin then recorded another upward push, rising 1.32% in a separate 15-minute candle. This jump marked the asset’s largest 15-minute gain since Sunday.

Bitcoin Rises After US CPI Report
Bitcoin Rises After US CPI Report

The rally pushed Bitcoin to an intraday high of $62,410, roughly one hour after the CPI release, representing a 2.11% increase. The price has since pulled back from that level, currently trading for $61,800 at the time of reporting.

These Key Metrics Suggest Bitcoin Is Nearing a Bottom: Anthony Pompliano

Lele Jima
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0
These Key Metrics Suggest Bitcoin Is Nearing a Bottom: Anthony Pompliano

Popular American investor Anthony Pompliano has highlighted several indicators suggesting that Bitcoin may be nearing the bottom of the current bear market.

Speaking in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Pompliano discussed Bitcoin’s recent decline, which briefly pushed the asset to around $59,000 last week. Interestingly, he argued that the premier cryptocurrency is approaching its market bottom, highlighting some factors to support his view. 

Why Bitcoin Bottom is Near 

According to Pompliano, the current downturn has been less severe than previous bear market cycles. He stated that past Bitcoin bear markets have often erased 80% or more of the asset’s value. In contrast, the current cycle has seen Bitcoin fall by roughly 50% from its all-time high of $126,198.

He attributed this relatively moderate decline to increasing institutional participation in the market. As more institutional investors enter the space, they help absorb volatility and create a stabilizing effect that reduces the severity of market drawdowns. 

Pompliano also pointed to on-chain data as another reason for optimism. Citing analyst Benjamin Cowen, he noted that a larger share of Bitcoin is currently held at a loss than at a profit.

Historically, such conditions have coincided with the final stages of bear markets. As a result, Pompliano believes the current environment could present a favorable accumulation opportunity for long-term investors seeking exposure at lower prices.

Ali Martinez Highlights Additional Bottom Signals

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez echoed a similar outlook, arguing that Bitcoin is approaching a market bottom after falling from nearly $83,000 to $59,000 in 30 days.

According to Martinez, long-term holders fueled the decline by moving and selling approximately 54,000 BTC over two weeks. This increase in supply added significant downward pressure to Bitcoin’s price.

Martinez further revealed that 10.46 million BTC are currently being held at a loss. Consequently, the “supply in loss” metric has climbed above the critical 10-million threshold.

Historically, readings above this level have aligned with macro market bottoms and have often preceded major recoveries. Therefore, Martinez views the current data as another indication that Bitcoin could be nearing a turning point.

MVRV Bands Point to Key Accumulation Zone

In addition, Martinez highlighted Bitcoin’s MVRV pricing bands as an important valuation tool. He noted that previous accumulation phases developed when Bitcoin traded between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV bands.

Based on current market conditions, those levels correspond to a price range between approximately $54,000 and $43,000, which Martinez considers a potential accumulation zone for long-term investors.

Despite recovering above the $62,000 level, Bitcoin remains in bearish territory. At press time, the leading cryptocurrency was trading at $62,024, down 0.79% over the past 24 hours and 7.05% over the past week. However, market activity remains elevated, with daily trading volume rising 19.42% to $37.32 billion. 

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