XRP is testing its 200-day SMA zone as its 2023 rebound offers a historical comparison that would map a recovery toward roughly $3.20.
XRP has returned to the same long-term moving-average area that helped establish a recovery base in 2023.
With XRP now trading near $1.31 and its 200-day simple moving average around $1.37, the immediate test is whether buyers can reclaim the trend line and repeat part of the earlier rebound.
XRP is currently about 4% below the 200-day SMA. That makes the present setup slightly weaker than a clean support test from above: price first needs to recover the average before it can attempt to turn it back into support.
XRP Defended the $0.40 Area in 2023
In March 2023, XRP pushed above its 200-day SMA, which stood near $0.40 at the time. Price later returned toward the same broader moving-average area in May, briefly slipping below it before recovering.
Historical data places XRP’s May low near $0.4217, while contemporary analysis highlighted $0.40 as the main support zone.
That defense eventually preceded a much larger move. XRP reached approximately $0.938 on July 13, representing an increase of roughly 134.5% from $0.40.
The strongest leg of that rally followed the court ruling in the SEC’s case against Ripple, so the 200-day average was not the only driver. It acted as a technical foundation before a separate catalyst accelerated the move.
What a Similar XRP Bounce Would Mean in 2026
The current 200-day SMA is near $1.3665. Applying the same 134.5% increase recorded from the 2023 support area would produce an XRP price of approximately $3.20.
That is a historical-repeat calculation rather than a fixed forecast.
From the current price near $1.31, reaching $3.20 would require an advance of about 145%.
The resulting level would still sit below XRP’s 2025 peak near $3.66, meaning the scenario would represent a substantial recovery without necessarily producing a new record.
XRP Must First Reclaim the 200-Day SMA
The 2023 comparison only becomes useful if XRP recovers above the 200-day SMA and holds it.
A move back above roughly $1.37, followed by a successful retest, would show that buyers are again defending the longer-term trend measure. That would give XRP a base from which to attempt a broader recovery.
Continued trading below the average would weaken the comparison. Instead of acting as support, the 200-day SMA would become overhead resistance, leaving XRP vulnerable to further downside before any larger bounce develops.
The current setup is therefore not yet at the projected stage. XRP first needs to reclaim its 200-day SMA. If it then reproduced the scale of its 2023 recovery from that moving-average zone, the proportional target would sit near $3.20.